Member Info for Stockpig

"I do wonder whether a blocker to growth is our pricing point for the figures?"

Potentially yes. There are many people unhappy with the pricing. However given they are still bringing factories online it does appear that there is still unmet demand there at current pricing levels.

"Personally, I'm wondering if a few insiders have caught wind that the Amazon deal might fall through - hence the painful fall in the SP over this week."

I don't see why it would fall through at this stage. The financial part has largely been agreed, now its just the scripting and production to be done on the first of the shows/ films isnt it?

We're also coming up to another big anniversary for 40k.

I think any wobbles in price are likely based on concerns around the economy and/ or tariffs.

"Am I alone in thinking the Amazon deal is a disaster for adding more players? I just can’t help thinking that it’s all based on personal imagination and if you spoon feed it to people as Amazon will do, then most of the magic will disappear. I’ve been in and out several times, but at present am out. Probably wrong, though."

I think they saw a decent bump in interest from the Space Marine 2 game and the Secret Levels episode to suggest that the Amazon deal could bring in more fans/ players. I agree that there is a risk if it is handled poorly but I trust GAW to get this right.

Oops wrong thread - sorry everyone (can't see a way to delete posts)

Just got the mail update that the court's decision will be published 1 August

"The Secret Level WH40k episode is based off the Space Marine 2 and so I suspect is off the video game licence - this is altogether a different kettle of fish - films and TV series set in the WH40k universe (and hopefully the WHF as well last on). Its going to be interesting when they provide guidance - could be for the FY26."

Yes, different but quite a coincidence that the announcement happens just as a show involving WH40K is about to air on Amazon?

I believe WH40K celebrates it's 40th Anniversary in September 2027. That will probably be a key date for whatever plans are afoot. Will be interesting if something can be delivered sooner.

Well, it's out about 20 minutes before Secret Level is due to appear on Amazon.

Good to see Amazon have taken an option on Warhammer fantasy too.

"The Ageas bid at current share price of Ageas would have represented incl the 5p dividend a total bid of 265 pence.

Not sure why the board rejected it given at current valuations the accepted bid is only 10 pence higher."

Because the offer from Agneas was based on their share price at the time of the bid which was lower than todays. It is a non UK listed company, so the attraction of having it's shares maybe less appealing. And, perhaps having just installed a new CEO, DLG major shareholders probably wished to see how things would play out across the following 12 months.

Aviva don't have to rush and know that they can probably buy for £3. Probably just seeing how much under they can get it for and will just chip away until the find the sweetspot to get official talks with board. Wouldn't surprise me to see the bid include a final dividend from DLG to reach a £2.70 or £2.75 price.

I dont see a rival bidding. If they did, probably not a blow out bid so Aviva can simply match and still be preferred.

"Next communication expected Jan 14 (barring any confirmation or otherwise of the Amazon deal)."

Amazon have an animated show starting on 10 December, called Secret Levels. Each episode is themed on a particular video game series. The first episode is Warhammer 40K related, following on from the recent Space Marine 2 video game. I've long suspected any announcement on the Amazon deal would be after this airs. Will be interesting to see if we get that update shortly after the show airs or if it is only disclosed upon the half year update.

"Only reason LGEN sitting at 233p today because the worry of a Dividend cuts"

Who has been worrying about dividend cuts? It's effectively covered for the next three years which the company has already set out its intention to pay. Its solvency capital buffer is much bigger than other UK insurers.

"This is the key line from this mornings (or late afternoon here in Perth WA) rns

"We anticipate returning to shareholders a proportion of the capital not deployed on strain this year"

Probably as a share buyback , but maybe a divi bump?"

I think they've been saying that future additional returns to shareholders would be via buy back until at least 2027. Given the 9% yield I don't see them adding anything further to the dividend directly, any 'bump', will therefore most likely be from reducing share count. The issue until now has been a lack of detail on how additional buy backs would be funded and how much it would be.

"I think on that basis they will decline the second bid, I just wonder, as a couple of people have said, if the investors can force it through, time will tell I guess."

Yes, they can, particularly if the bid goes 'hostile'.

We've seen this year Hargreaves Lansdown for example accept a bid at what many people felt was a relatively low price - and that was rumoured to be because the two founders in particular wanted the deal and pressed their CEO to engage/ accept it. Perhaps other big shareholders also.

I don't know DLG's biggest shareholders or the size of their holdings but I suspect that they are open to offers and won't allow the board to stand in the way of a sale. It is notable that despite DLG's official stance, their chair is having conversations with Aviva, so there are discussions ongoing between the companies.

"For what it's worth, I fancy a second bid to land and be rejected, I don't think the board will entertain it unless it's in the £2.90 range and I don't think Aviva will go that high. "

I think the larger shareholders will have a say on that. Peter Wood has already suggested an offer around £2.75 share would be satisfactory for him.

"Wish Winslow would keep his trap shut and do a deal at 280p and go back to being a managing director"

I think the criticism of Winslow is overdone. If people here are looking for DLG to attract a 275p+ bid then you probably not going to get that by Winslow agreeing to talks at the earliest opportunity.

"t's been held back by deteriorating interest rates/bond yields expectations."

That's certainly a factor, but concerns about future growth prospects shouldn't be ignored. In recent years growth has been through buying up assets from private pensions schemes. I could be wrong but it appears to be somewhat capital intensive and a market with growing competition. It's also forecast that most of these pension schemes will have been bought out by 2032 I think, at least in the UK. Hence the pivot to the asset management side of the business as a potential source of growth, which in recent years hasn't been firing on all cylinders and is also a very competitive market.

I also wonder what impact Aviva's recovery under Blanc has had on demand for L&G shares. Prior to her arrival it had performed poorly for much of the previous decade, wheras L&G performed well. Her substantial capital returns have been well received by the markets. I don't know how long that can be sustained for though.

"2022 lgen share price £3.08 and it's slowly been dropping ............come on lgen, you used to be such a good share even paying out during the Pandemic, what went wrong".

It's possible that the latter is a big reason for the former?

"There is only 25% chance this bid will go through"

On what grounds? I would expect the odds of it happening are far better than that. Pretty unlikely Aviva would have got involved in the way that they have if the odds of a deal where that low. Aviva want the deal, DLG's scope for avoiding it is limited. DLG's financial situation is already improving, and with interest rates expected to fall further next year, buying now makes some sense before its price rises further. Also, I'm not sure that DLG shareholders are going to be that hard to win over, particularly if they get AV shares rather than Agneaus ones (although, I would prefer straight cash personally).

Bloomberg reporting Goldman Sachs helping Aviva on bid for DLG, having worked for DLG to defend the Ageus bid earlier this year....

I'll be surprised if Aviva don't buy DLG here.

"What on earth is a tree shake?"

@alboumphoto, I think it is where actors in the market sell shares first thing in the morning to prompt others to sell shares, before then buying up shares at a lower price.

"I appreciate the concerns of the purists wishing to protect the brand and image. For investors however the SP is prime concern. Won’t a deal with Amazon be likely to push up the SP? I only have a small investment here but I’d welcome a bit of profit above the near 20% gain so far.

most people invest for profit (if they are lucky). Do people here think GAWL will flourish better without the deal? I’m thinking the SP is up in the hopes of investors of a deal."

Hi TV, I'm both a fan of the Warhammer universe and a shareholder. I first bought in 3 years ago and am 'only' up 75%. If GAW continue looking after the interests of fellow gamers and enthusiasts then investors should continue profiting heavily in the future also. A short-term bounce on a tv deal that is not executed well will potentially destroy more value than it creates for shares holders by driving away new interest and possibly that of existing enthusiasts. While also depriving the company of a new stream of profits. As it stands, GAW is still not fulfilling all current demand for its products and the market, which it dominates, is continuing to expand. Obviously, a well-executed tv deal would be brilliant for enthusiasts and shareholders alike. Not clearing a deal now doesn't mean one cant be agreed in the future.