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That's about right lilo. The only correct answer is what actually happens and we don't know that until it happens. But the investigation had been going on for years and had already knocked back the SP considerably. Therefore the possible upside is greater than the downside from now on.
SP moving up a little. Not as much as other shares. That surprises me a little. PFC goes ex-dividend on 22 April with a payout of two thirds of the year's dividend in one lump in May. The market may think the dividend could still be cancelled. We saw that with Wetherspoons and their SP rose 25%.
So the SP has risen a little now and we're expecting 19.54p per share in May. That's cash in your pocket at 10% or so for the two thirds payment in May. What's not to like?
If PFC are going to cancel the dividend they need to do it now. Waiting will ensure the SP drops further and then any benefit will just bring it back to the current SP. Otherwise leave it in place and buyers will be attracted to get the dividend. PFC can afford it.
It benefited Wetherspoons to cancel the dividend by 25% or so and their SP is still up from then.
Mark, If PFC are in the same position? 400p+ down to 160p? So if it's more to do with that then surely the PFC SP could respond in the same way, especially as other oil stocks are up, as Warthog points out.
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/news-and-analysis/wetherspoons-share-price-jumps-despite-dividend-cancellation
Dividend cut at Wetherspoons has actually boosted their SP.