RE: Sp rise on news how big26 Apr 2021 10:40
Interesting Snowking - over that timescale, I've got a more optimistic outlook. I appreciate that this is all very rough calcs but part of my optimism is around how many extra shares are issued and for what but, also, you haven't factored in any other income from any other asset? I wouldn't necessarily apply that level of country risk either.
I'd challenge whether that number of shares should be issued, but in the scenario you've set out with an additional 8 or 9 billion shares in issue then one must assume that those shares would be issued over a period of time and not all at current prices... depending on how many shares are issued and at what point, the £'s raised could be £20m, £30m, £50m or more in the next 3 years. What would GR want that money for? I'd suggest that he shouldn't need it for Zulu... get the DFS done (£5m?) and then the rest is funded by either off-take agreements or jv (if there's a jv then there will be a complete re-structure and I'd reckon that Prem is the junior partner). If he raises funds for something else, eg. MNH, then one would have to assume that it would be to generate more income. And, of course, there appears to be more than just lithium at Zulu!!
So either there is more income than just from Zulu or he doesn't need to issue that amount of shares!
Of course, I'm sceptical about GR's ability to be disciplined about what he does in the next year... if he only raises funds for Zulu, I think the market would respond positively. If he raises funds for MNH with real evidence that PREM is getting income from it then that would be OK but do it in 6 months or a year... just don't do it next month!
So I reckon, if GR takes the rights steps, we could see a 5 bagger in the next 6 months to a year... maybe a 10 bagger after DFS.
The big question is how much does he raise now and what does he do further down the road!