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Indeed ... based on nearly 10 million cancer cases worldwide needing chemotherapy (2018 figures) and using the German reimbursement rate of 120 euros, that's a billion pound / $1.3b market ... The total chemotherapy drug market was $100 billion in 2018, so just over 1% for screening to make sure the drug doesn't kill the patient doesn't seem unreasonable.
Water those weeds :)
Peter,
N+1 Singer, for the YE March 2021 have estimated adjusted EBIDTA of £4.1m and PBT of £1.8m on a revenue of £24.8m
In the recent investor presentation, Lyn said he was very comfortable with the updated estimates so I don't think we have much to worry about in terms of "losing money"
Now we just need people to think ... Is 19.75p really all my shares are worth?
If everyone stayed away from the sell button for a week, where would the SP end up by the time we get to the trading update?
AFAICT, the closed period of a month applies to results (half year / pre-lims / finals), not to trading updates. If you check the RNS history back in 2018, there were directors dealings on the 5th October and a trading update on the 12th October so unless we broke the rules in 2018, it looks like we're clear for a trading update any time.
Trading updates in previous years were 12th Oct 2018 and 14th Oct 2019 ...
Based on those dates, my money is on next week for the half year trading update, or Monday 19th at the latest!
I'm not sure we have many covid newbies left, pump & dump hasn't really worked here!
At any other time, our 30%+ growth PA for the next few years (excluding Covid) would have been far more enticing and I'm sure one day it will be again.
If our Covid income can get us the cash for strategic acquisition(s) without any dilution, that should also give the MCAP and earnings a shove in the right direction!
Jadam - My broker won't let me buy 1, 100, 200 etc shares because it says they're secret codes.
And a 1 trade pops up - who was doing a dummy sell and hit the wrong button? :)
Ygen will know .. but if the 4 other competitive companies also know the expected volume and YGEN post the expected revenue, what do you think that tells the other participants? What could / would happen in the next tender when they are bidding for other contracts against each other? What would they do differently next time?
Lyn is business savvy ...
Bakky, I must admit I haven’t checked recently, but do Novacyt actually process any tests or do they only sell the kits? I seem to remember seeing £7 a pop for theIt single gene kit so presumably the processing is carried out by whoever buys the kit!
Without using silly numbers, say 20k tests processed per month and selling 1 million kits, we can’t be far off of £15m-£20m on top of core business on an annual basis.
Since we’re already at approx break even, that’s all spare cash for acquisitions, capacity increase or accelerated investment ..
I saw that pop up on the ODX board - they've got 175k tests out of that 1 million, at what, 75p each? £131k ?
If the Align numbers are correct, we get £42 for each test, multiply that by 10k tests ... £420k per month for just our initial capacity.
And their SP rockets ...
One day Rodney!
Two 50k buys & one 100k buy in the last couple of minutes!
bakky, totally agree!
Given the way the company is progressing, it's far better value now than it has been for years!
We should get the half year trading update next week too, not long to wait, even for the impatient!
It doesn't know ... LSE guesses based on whether the trade was below, at, or above the middle of the bid & ask at the time.
The (buy) trades at 20.99 were just below the middle of the 20.5 - 21.5 range at the time so are marked as sells.
3 on the bid at 20.5 (90k), 4 on the bid at 20p (140k)
2 on the ask at 21.5 (60k), 2 at 22 (60k), 2 at 22.5 (60k)
latest sell 8.9k 20.65, latest buy 25k at 21.2
I don't see any harm in employees reading the board, or even Walbrook on their behalf - the main takeaway would be that we like to be kept informed. It does feel like communication is improving of late and Lyn even alluded to that on one of his recent presentations!
.. and a tick up on the ask :)
notaflip, curious, who do you think is the YGEN employee?!
I'm pretty sure someone is reading the board because the corrected holdings RNS came out pretty smartly after I commented that the previous percentage looked like it was copied from an old TR1!
Every employee will now be focused on the share price which should keep the news flow active!
Oneknows - the report post button may do the trick, or you could just buy some shares in Ygen ;-)
Any of those recent red trades 21.08 or over this morning are actually buys ...
Seadog, sorry to disappoint, but it appears he wandered to our village from yours in the first place! .. Take ownership man!! ;-)