Member Info for Steve4077

I added at 5.24 yesterday. I suspect we will be looking back at this a year from now and wondering why we cared about the difference between 5p and 5.2p :)

Fevertreeman- remind me again why you are invested here?

(I'll save everyone else the time. He isn't. He just posts the same repetitive, negative, tedious de-ramps every day. )

Well, 74 according to the financial times. However, Morningstar has 76 and another website has 77.

Maybe we need to send him to the lab and have him assayed to be sure :)

I think he is 74 :)

Price drifting a little but volume today is very low - less than 3% of 10-day average volume so far (at 9.20am).

I think everyone is waiting for the next RNS :)

Can't buy anything on II - tried as low as £100, although easy to sell large amounts. Only 4 trades today so far so MMs can't be short of stock. They just don't seem to want to sell :)

Or you could just look at the specifics of this project, for which there is a considerable amount of detailed information available. Otherwise, why pick any one company over another if you assume they all make 10%.

>> does anyone have an ear to CB and can simply email him to confirm if the missing metres are simply low grade non commercial ?

You don't need to email him. It states in the RNS that all 905m is 0.2% to 0.5%.

I'm not really sure why news and theiceberg seem to have a minor falling out here. I know theiceberg from the SOLG forum and he is always a sensible and helpful poster. Equally, news is a great source of information on here.

I think all theiceberg is saying is lets not get overoptimistic, because that can lead to disappointment even when the reality is fine. Last night's RNS is a good example. To me, it was very good news. However, other people are focused on the grade and based on their somewhat unrealistic expectations now see those grades as a disappointment.

The company and its staff are plainly excited about Bushranger (and so am I) but lets not get ahead of ourselves. We will know the situation for sure within the next few weeks and I don't mind if the share price goes up now, or in a few weeks. I'm not going anywhere.

In the meantime, we all want the same thing, which is for the company to do well. Lets not fall out over our estimates for exactly how rich we will all be :)

Maybe the safe thing is to assume no or minimal gold until we hear otherwise, then no one will be disappointed that their expectations are not met. This appears to be a huge, commercially viable copper deposit (with drilling and assays to confirm), so even with no gold at all we are in good shape. Gold would be a really nice bonus, especially if we are not counting on it.

According to current Kefi presentation for just TKGM (slide 25).
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/presentations/kefi-corporate-presentation-jan21.pdf

The global median in Q2-2020 for All in sustaining costs (“AISC”)* was c. $1,000/oz (according to the World Gold Council)
TKGM’s sits in the 2nd quartile, with AISC ranging between $750/oz to $950/oz
Therefore, if we assumed a conservative $1700 for Gold, the profit margin is between 44% and 56%, not 10%.

>> 124000 ozs p a * 1700 dollars=210m. 10%=21m dollars= approx £18m

Yes, but where did the 10% come from?

>> You could be right Steve. Seemed a bit strange why they were not reported though.

I don't think it was done in a clear way, but it was definitely reported. I am quoting from the RNS:

"The data from the handheld XRF indicates that copper mineralisation occurs over a downhole depth of 905m with copper grades ranging from 0.2 to 0.5% Cu."

Before the listed sections it states: "...copper mineralisation occurs over a downhole width of 905m from 110m downhole depth including:"

So that reads to me that it is at least 0.2% for he whole 900m, except for the sections specifically quoted. Of course, as someone just mentioned, that may rise further after the gold assays.

It sounds to me like the 'missing' 430m are at 0.2%.

From the RNS: "The data from the handheld XRF indicates that copper mineralisation occurs over a downhole depth of 905m with copper grades ranging from 0.2 to 0.5% Cu."

So that states 905m with at least 0.2%, then the listed items are the sections with 0.3% to 0.5%.

From News earlier today

"From my notes, there is CADIA EAST, CADIA FAR-EAST, BIG & LITTLE CADIA, CADIA HILL & RIDGEWAY. Some of the grades from the above range:

"0.15% Cu COPPER
0.16% Cu COPPER
0.36% Cu COPPER
0.4% Cu COPPER
0.5% Cu COPPER
& 0.56% Cu COPPER"

So the grades are comparable to the huge Cadia mine. But again, don't get hung up on grades. The value of the copper is the market value minus the cost of extraction. High grades doesn't help if it is hard to access, in a difficult jurisdiction without infrastructure. A mine here would have a low AISC, making the grades well above the economic threshold.

>> You did indeed Steve, as did News. That's not my point though. Why use such 'grandiose' terminology when 'in line with expectations' would have been perfectly adequate.....

Because the results are not in line with expectation. They are well beyond expectation. You seem to be basing your judgement purely on grades, which is not a good idea for porphyry systems. The drill carried on for hundreds of metres beyond the expected finish point, making this a much larger deposit than expected with grades better than comparable mines with 10x the market cap. It is literally the definition of beyond expectation.

If you really don't think this is an amazing discovery by now, then it is time to sell :)

>> 'Well-developed copper mineralisation', ' strong visible copper mineralisation', Beyond expectations' etc....I for one was expecting upwards of .5/.6 anyone else?

I posted on January 24th: "I wouldn't get over-optimistic on the grades, or it might seem disappointing when it is actually fine in reality. Porphyry grades tends to be quite low. Anything above 0.3% would be fine and anything above 0.5% would be very good. Its about volume rather than grade. I'm concerned that if we build up the grade potential too much, then a reasonable grade would be treated as a failure and perhaps result in a sell-off."

The XRF results are in line with my expectations (and better than the other porphyries in the area. Plus, it is over 900m, which is well beyond any expectation prior to the drill. Also, don't forget these grades don't include gold yet and, based on the mineralization, it sounds like the gold assays could be very interesting

>> This is nailed on. Cant believe you can buy in still at this price.

Its a lack of understanding re the geology among most investments. Porphyries are not that common. There are mines in Chile, Mexico, the south-east US, Indonesia, etc. but very few in Australia or Canada. The grades look low for 'normal' mining, but this is a "large fertile porphyry-related hydrothermal system" (to quote the expert in the RNS) that can be started with an open pit with maybe block-caving for the deeper part.

Volume is looking to be huge, although we need the rest of the drilling to confirm, and costs will be relatively low, plus it's in a great jurisdiction close to existing infrastructure. This is not like SOLG where they have a monster but it is in a difficult part of Ecuador. This mine will be less than 150 miles from Sydney! That alone is worth multiples of the current market cap, but we still have gold assays to come.

The market will wake up to this eventually. Just be glad it hasn't happened yet, so you had the chance to buy cheaply :)

>> Nothing here is "nailed on"

Agree, but CB does appear to have a really big hammer :)

>> What would be a realistic timescale for the test results, any ideas?

For the assay, anything from 4-8 weeks I would guess. Depends on the lab, the outstanding work, effects of COVID, etc., so it is not straight forward to estimate.

There is also the issue that if PIs are not familiar with porphyries, they might look at the grades and think they are low without considering volume or mining costs. Also they may not see the very positive comments about gold and from the 'expert' unless they read the whole RNS. My experience has been that very few PI take the time to fully understand what they are buying.