Member Info for Steve4077

@news. I agree that the best possible interpretation of the results would be economic grades from 130m to 750m. However, on hole 1 the grades were from 0.2% to 0.5% and there wasn't any commentary about anything being 'weak' and not much about 'moderate', so I am trying to determine a reasonable middle-ground based on past description and known grades.

The worst situation would be to build up everyone's expectations to the best possible result. Then when a really good result comes in, everyone is disappointed. What we want is a share price increase when the good results come in and then means setting realistic expectations for the majority of shareholders that do not go into the detail of the geology or the drilling plan.

Therefore, I think economic from 340m is a good middle-ground, above expectation but not seen as a ramp. If we get that, I would be very happy and we probably hit our 2m target. If there is anything economic above 340m, that would be a great bonus.

The mineralization was weak to moderate from shallow and 'becomes more pronounced from 340m'. To avoid being over-optimistic, we should probably assume the economic grades are only from 340m. If there is decent mineralization from 340m down to around 700m or more, that would be a great result.

CB said drilling update this week and provided it - that is good. If he hadn't provided the update, everyone would complain about that instead :)

A little under $400m, based on previous estimates (and from independent observers).

Market cap currently $30m. That is why I am here :)

The key parts are:

"The new hole was sited offset from strike to intersect the deposit at a target depth of about 450-500m. We are currently cutting through a wide zone of geological alteration and low to moderate grade copper mineralisation lying above the main zone."

and

"Weak to moderate copper mineralisation and bedrock alteration was first noted in the hole at a depth of about 130m within the hanging-wall margin of the deposit and becomes more pronounced from 340m as the hole approaches the main porphyry target zone"

So they were aiming to intercept at 450-500m, but they start getting weak to moderate from 130m, which got stronger from 340m. In other words, they are hitting more mineralization than expected before they even reach the target zone.

While I am bored :) I thought it might be worth looking at volume and price movements over the last three weeks, just to demonstrate there is no major sell-off in recent days. Bear in mind there were 620m shares before the placing, which added another 111m

The format here is Date / Volume / % Movement in Price.
11th 20m +9.8%
12th 21m +15.6%
13th 14m -7.7%
14th 15m +4.2%
15th 46m +60%
18th 139m +112%
19th 80m -16%
20th 75m -28%
21st 49m -5.9%
22nd 32m +7.3%
25th 36m +4.85%
26th 22m -5.2%
27th 12m -6.25%

So compared to volumes on the way up, the price is falling on very small volumes in the last couple of days. There is no significant selling. For comparison, when EUA fell so dramatically yesterday, volume was the highest since the start of December, while the volume during recovery today has already passed yesterday.

>> I’m a bit moody about this share price tho. I think people are shifting money out to pay tax and play reddit stocks

Yes, that is probably correct. Everything is down again today. The value is in the ground though and that's permanent. The share price is only temporary.

I've been going back through the Bushranger RNS (trying to find the comment about gold grades) and I was struck by the time line. Its remarkable how fast this is happening, which gives some indication of how well the company regards Bushranger.

1st June 2020: Announcement that company is trying to acquire the Bushranger copper / gold project in Australia
13th August 2020: Conditional Sale announced after all due diligence completed.
27th October 2020: Acquisition completed after receiving approval from Australian government and New South Wales.
2nd December 2020: Government approval given to proceed with its maiden, Phase One, drilling programme
16th December 2020: Drilling commenced
22nd December 2020: First Drilling update, then closed over Xmas holidays
7th Jan to 25th Jan 2021: Eight separate drilling updates.

So from acquisition completion on 27th October, they received government permission for drilling within five weeks, then drills in the ground 2 weeks later. In the six weeks since then, they already drilling 1100m+ in hole 1 and are probably 300m into hole 2 and they provided nine updates.

For an exploration company, that is moving very fast.

Yes, really good find. I thought I also read somewhere that XTR thought the historical gold grades hadn't been assessed correctly, but now I can't find it. Anyone else remember that?

>> actually Steve, I have noticed this too with almost all small cap miners down a bit irrespective of where they are in their cylces...

I only invest in small cap miners, so was red almost all across the board today. Interesting point on the tax dates. Is that a UK thing? I live on the Isle of Man so don't follow UK tax rules.

>> Could it be because the placing shares are going through today, showing as sells?

I meant mining stocks in general rather than XTR specifically. They are almost all down today and I can't see any obvious reason why.

Very weird day in general. Almost all mining shares I am tracking are down, although no idea why. Gold and silver down only slightly. Bitcoin not going anywhere. Anyone have any idea why the mining stocks are down?

Seriously then for a moment. It is indeed possible that HA might not be able to deliver. However, even if you assign more than a 50% probability that he doesn't, it is still worth the investment. If he gets this through, the upside is a lot higher than double, so 50% risk is fine.

Besides, his salary (according to the FT) is only 180k, which is not exactly lifestyle salary range), plus he bought over six million shares in late November 2020, so he obviously thinks he is going to get there.

Finally, while finance has been delayed, I have seen many delayed deals and projects, most of which were a lot less complex than this. When Harry says October, or December or Q1, it is an estimate. He is probably guilty (as with many CEOs) of being over-optimistic. However, when you consider everything happening in the world (pandemic) and in Ethiopia specifically (Tigray), he has some valid reason for delays. That is without even considering all the third parties that can cause delays completely outside his control (which again happens in a lot of companies) and the fact he is in Africa.

At the moment I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. If the evidence changes, I may change my mind. What I will not do however, it remain invested in a company if I don't believe in it. Which is why is seems so strange to me that you are invested and do nothing but create negative posts - although today it has been better.

>> I should have done way more DD on Harry unfortunately. And ultimately management is always the deciding factor and it really irks me when owners of companies are treated by boards as inconveniences.

You know you can still sell if you don't like the company? It's not a lifetime commitment. If you do stay invested, its probably not the best use of your time to spend it trying to put off other potential investors :)

>> So I am guessing that neither of you managed money?

No, not me. Well, unless you my job as analytics director of a twenty billion dollar global company. Oh and I suppose there is also the time I spent travelling around the world (UK, USA, Australia, etc.) examining companies in great detail, interviewing their boards and understanding every item on their P+Ls.

But apart from that, nothing. My wife even looks after all the bills at home.

The price movement seems a little dodgy at the moment. Several buys go through without a sale, then the ask drops. I've seen that several times. There are some sells as well, but I suspect a minor tree-shake is going on. The MMs are taking it down on very small volume (now 11% of 10-day average volume at 1pm).

No, I'm Spartacus!

I think its more likely that you know something they are not aware of :)

Some of it may be placing shares, again from people who are taking their 10% profits rather than learning about the company.

I'm invested because the assets and prospects the company has are amazing for the market cap. I've assessed the risk and decided it is far outweighed by the potential rewards. Finally, I know Harry has missed some deadlines, but I am also taking into account the global pandemic, recent insurrection in Ethiopia and general difficulty in doing business in Africa.

Why are you invested (or you still avoiding that question) ?

So, once again, remind me again why you are invested here?