Member Info for Steve4077

I was away for a few minutes - what happened to the large amounts on the ask? Were they bought or removed? I don't think they were bought looking at the trades - but just checking.

Huge volume today, but seems to be a battle of attrition around the 2p mark.

>> Steve. KMP haven't sold any shares.

Yes, good point. I hadn't considered the dilution aspect.

Notification is that change took place on 8th Feb (closing price 5.80), which is after second hole complete, but before 3rd hole began. They bought the shares on 11th May 2020 (closing price 0.85). Nice profit :)

From the last RNS (6 days ago)

"Hole BRDD-21-003, the third hole of the Phase One Drilling Programme at the Racecourse Mineral Resource on the Bushranger Project, aims to test the width and grade of the porphyry mineralisation higher in the deposit than the previous two holes in order to assist in defining the 3-dimensional shape and orientation of the porphyry system. The hole is being drilled at -60 degrees towards the north-northwest and is currently at a depth of 310m within mixed sediments exhibiting albite-biotite alteration, with increasing disseminated and vein-hosted sulphides in the form of sphalerite and pyrite-pyrrhotite."

There has been no RNS to say the drilling is complete, so the assumption is that the drilling is ongoing. Most RNS for Bushranger tend to land between 10.30am and 1.30pm so there may still be an update today.

>> By tomorrow it'll be 6 days without a Hole 3 update. And the market still isn't getting interested

Apart from those of us following the story closely, no one will be counting days. They will just react to an RNS when it appears. I am always amazed by how few people actually do any research or have any real understand of the stocks in which they are invested.

There is a set amount on the ask of 121,554 shares at 2.00. Its been bought and replaced six times in the last three minutes :)

Plus several 250k and 150k buys at the same price in the same timeframe, many of which are automatic trades. Very interesting activity. Looks like 2p is triggering a LOT of buying.

>> make that £10 it's a monster

So you are forecasting a seven billion market cap compared to the current $40m? Huge potential here but probably not quite that huge :)

XTR has great prospects, so no need for unsubstantiated ramping. That will just put people off.

>> Beyond belief.. drill still turning must over 270m into mineralization and the drill is still turning . No RNS yet for either bad or good. Yet share price is down and shareholders selling.

You are assuming the share price is an accurate reflection of buying and selling activity :)

The volume weighted average of all transactions today is higher than the current Ask and the total volume is low, so the price movement doesn't necessary reflect overall sentiment.

>> Steve, in the last two months we've already traded more than 5 billion. So do you not think that market can swallow the placement shares if good news?

I'm not saying its impossible - just that on the balance of probabilities (and past experience of placings) I decided not to invest yet. Ultimately we are just anonymous people speculating on an internet forum, with our opinions (even if based on a lot of research) affected by conscious and unconscious biases. That is why everyone should do their own research and make their own decisions.

>> Steve -but the evidence of recent placings is that pretty much all large holders have retained their interests in the company. CE Mining as an example are a specialist in the mining space - why would they sell out knowing that Copper demand trajectory is up

Firstly, the placing on 8th December included a provision that CE Mining and Aether could not sell their combined 700m shares until 180 days after the placing, so they aren't selling because they cannot do so yet.

The billion shares from Lombard Odier can be sold from March 8th. Here is the relevant RNS
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RMM/us1325-million-equity-raising-and-note-financing-tgd6moh8o2iwmea.html

Secondly, even if you are correct about CE mining, they only hold 333m of the 4.2 billion shares placed since December 8th so whether they sell or not probably doesn't make much difference.

Finally, I am not trying to win an argument here. I am just pointing out my reasons for not investing yet, even though I agree this company has a lot of potential. I almost certainly will invest at some point and I don't see a downside (other than opportunity cost) for anyone investing at this share price.

We will see in the coming weeks and months whether I was right to focus elsewhere for a while or I missed out on a great short-term opportunity.

>> Steve - shares in issue is not really the issue you describe IMO.

I completely agree, because that isn't the issue I described :)

The problem is not total number of shares, but rather the percentage of shares (around 40%) that were the result of recent placings. Those shares are going to be sold over the next few weeks and months, regardless of fundamentals, because that is what generally happens following a placing. It is hard to increase the share price (or the market cap) with that much short-term selling pressure.

BTW I still think buying now is OK if you don't have any better short-term prospects and you are happy to hold for a while.

And now NT to buy at 5.8 - exactly same pattern as yesterday.

The main problem for RMM now is not value, because I think it looks very good even over the medium term, but the huge amount of shares that are going to be sold for relatively small profits. There is today's raising of 2.5 billion shares, plus the 1 billion outstanding shares from Lombard Odier that can be sold 90 days after the last raising and the 700m outstanding shares from Aether and CE mining that can be sold 180 days after the last raising (which was Dec 8th).

Those sales are going to keep the price down because they want their 10% or 20% regardless of the company fundamentals. I don't think anyone is losing out buying at the current price because downside looks minimal, but some (like myself) may decide to use the money elsewhere for a while and buy in once the selling slows down.

I see we are on our usual early morning drive down tree-shake lane. Tiny volume (< 300k shares), more than half of which is buys, yet we are down 4%. It's becoming predictable :)

>> Updates are key to assuage the timorous or impatient.

I wonder if Robbie Burns was thinking about PIs?

Wee, sleekit, cowrin, tim'rous beastie,
O, what a panic's in thy breastie!

and now NT to buy :)

More odd price movement this morning. Despite low volume and most trades being buys, the ask is falling. In fact, the ask is currently lower than the VWAP despite only a few sells :)

>> Still more than viable whether 0.2% or 0.4%.

Its worth bearing in mind that Australia's second largest mine, which is close to Bushranger in the same Lachlan Fold Belt. is currently mining a porphyry with a proven and probable resource of 1480mt at 0.29% copper and 0.45 g/t gold. So anything around those numbers would be fine.

https://miningdataonline.com/property/185/Cadia-Valley-Operation.aspx

The last RNS (5th Feb) stated "The rig will now be set up to drill the third hole of the programme across the mineralised porphyry system to define the width and grade of the zone higher in the system."

A week ago people were complaining we had too many updates, now there are complaints we don't have enough updates. I suspect that regardless of the frequency of updates, someone prefer a different frequency :)

CB has stated they are going to drill home 3 and they would update on 'significant developments'. The last hole took 2 weeks. If we don't have an update by 19th-20th Feb, then we can start to wonder what is happening.