Member Info for Steve4077

>> The whole concept is to remove the waste rock from the ore with a 64% reduction of the mass material that then goes for processing.

Yes, but you only end up processing half the original metal. Read the bottom line (Metal Recovery (%)) of the second table.

Quick summary.

1) The ore sorter rejects 64% of the ore, so that the remaining 36% has a grade 52% higher.

2) This means the processor only has to get through 1/3rd as much work.

3) It also means that half the original metal is rejected.

4) It also means, only half the original income if the processor runs at 1/3rd capacity.

Lets assume instead the processor runs at 2/3rds original capacity, because now with 50% better grade we are back to original income but with a 1/3rd reduction in processing costs. Sounds good?

However, a couple of considerations.

1) As you are rejecting two thirds of the ore, you need to dig up ore at double the previous rate in order to have the process running at 2/3rd the original rate

2) You also have a new step with the ore-sorter handling double what was originally planned for the processor

So the question is whether digging up twice as much ore and putting it through the sorter would cost more than the saving achieved by running the processor at 2/3rd capacity.

@Jarv55. Nice article - references the JV too.

@cattleman

Obviously, we all wish we knew when the bottom was so we could buy at the best possible price, but if you were buying in the 2s and 3s that should prove to be an excellent price a year from now and an amazing price in 2-3 years. If you have no plans to sell, the meanderings of the share price until then are irrelevant.

There is no point revisiting decisions you can't change - you make the best decision you can at the time with the information you have. 20/20 hindsight is going to drive you crazy on every stock. I'll risk a Shakespeare quote from Lady MacBeth:

"Things without all remedy should be without regard. What done, is done!"

>> All i will say words are cheap...lets hope everything works out...I rest my case

What?

Cattle: "Anglo haven't said anything!"

Me: "Here is a list of everything they said"

Cattle: "OK, but now I've decided I don't believe anything they say anyway, which proves I was right."

(PS, I already sold and I am determined to ignore any information that suggests that was a bad idea)

>> AA have not said a word about anything

What?

Firstly, they did a joint interview with NvS back in April after the binding JV agreement was signed to talk about the future. They have shared pictures of the core yard they have set up in Zambia and engaged a contractor to do the work. They have announced education initiatives in Zambia as a benefit of the joint venture. They are all over the Zambian press with stories about how they are coming back to Zambia and have attended conferences with Zambian ministers. The Zambian government have talked several times in the last three months, from the President to the Mines minister, abut welcoming Anglo back to Zambia.

The only way AAL haven't said anything is if you are stood with your fingers in your ears shouting "la! la! la! I am not listening!"

Given that AAL is a 70% shareholder in the JV, I don't think ARCM will be the ones doing all the pushing at the moment. The Zambian Mining Cadastre has validated and approved the licence applications (see last RNS) and now they are in the final stages of documentation so the Mines Advisory Committee can give final approval. Given AAL are leading and we are waiting for the wheels of African bureaucracy to turn, I seriously doubt NvS is the bottleneck here.

Obviously, no one directly involved with ARCM can buy shares right now due to insider knowledge.

Re Botswana, there is absolutely no point in giving updates there until the Zambian approvals come through. It would be wasted. I suspect they have told the labs to hold off on sending assays so they don't have to publish results.

I know its frustrating, but when you hear about patience being the most important thing in investing, this is exactly the type of situation in which it is required. Revisit your research and use that as a guide - not a dip in share price on minimal volume while we await confirmation.

I'm not asking about ancient history, or any personal issues with F29. I am asking why, right now, you think ARCM is not a good investment?

A binding deal has been signed (April 20th). Approvals are underway and very positive noises are coming from Anglo and the Zambian government, so that should be sorted very soon. ARCM will get $15m cash and a 20% of whatever is found by $75m worth of drilling. Everything else is irrelevant frankly.

I am personally not basing my investment decisions on what an anonymous person says on an internet forum, as I am not a complete idiot, so I am invested in ARCM based on my own research. I am interested to know what your own research says about the current position for ARCM.

What downside, right now, do you see to offset that? Maybe you think Anglo and the Zambian government are just lying? Or that binding agreements are not binding for some reason? Or perhaps Anglo can't afford to spend $90m for the ARCM licences?

@Eloro Perhaps you would have more credibility if you could explain why F29 is 'terribly wrong', when this company has done one of the best deals ever on AIM. Please tell me you are not basing your entire analysis of the company on the share price during a period of waiting between the signing of the binding agreement and the government approvals?

What exactly do you see as the downside of buying, or holding, ARCM over the next few weeks & months?

Just green box them. If enough of us do that, they will just be bouncing off the walls of their own echo chamber.

The deal is done and going through approvals. We can simply ignore them.

I have all the trolls green boxed too BTW :)

>> That was a direct question to Jeremiah to get his personal opinion which I believe he is still free to give without having to take a ramp/deramp side.

OK, if a serious question. We have a binding agreement with a major, who is going to pay us $15m cash and spend $75m drilling on our licences. We get 20% of whatever we find and it costs us nothing to get that. From all indications coming out of Zambia, from ARCM, from AAL and the government, we are very close to the completion of government approvals so AAL can get drilling. NvS confirmed within the last few days that no raise is planned.

And the price is half of what is was quite recently and we are in a much better position - only in the stock market do people complain when the sales are on :)

>> Can I ask what is behind you conviction that investors should continue to buy at these paltry levels?

I hope for your sake that is a de-ramp and not a serious question. Unless, you didn't bother to read any RNS.

Can your Candles and Bollingers tell us when the approvals process will be complete, as I think that might have slightly more impact on the future price than the current chart?

I can't see how that would be connected to a mining licence application. Besides, the Cadastre has validated and approved the application. There is some additional documentation required (being finalised now according to NvS email at the weekend) and then it goes to the Mines Advisory Committee for final approval.

2.5m represents 1 share for every 500 held. It seems likely that if one person knew something’ so catastrophic that they had to dump everything instantly, then other people would also know and probably people with a lot more shares. Also you would find out on Monday anyway.

What seems a lot more likely is that someone was forced to sell for some reason external to ARCM. Margin call or large bill due, etc, or maybe an urgent opportunity elsewhere.

People sell stocks all the time. Only a tiny fraction sell because they are the only person with secret information.

As posted earlier, total volume in those two months was only 10%, and that includes buys, rollover, B+I, etc, so somewhere around 94-95% of shareholders are holding or buying more during that period. You can't control what the MMs do with the share price when there is minimal volume. I guess they want people to panic and sell and generate some activity.

Also, it has fallen 24% in the last two months, not 35%, but I guess accuracy wasn't your main aim :)

Just posted some volume info on the Telegram channel. I'll summarise here.

The total number of shares traded over the last two months is 10% of the total shares in issue, which is very low. That includes buys and sells, plus a fair amount of rollovers, bed & ISA, etc. Total sells is unlikely to be more than 6%, and that is probably pessimistic.

For comparison I checked SHG, which is a decent mid-size AIM company in which I was recently invested, and they had 36% traded in the same period, and also TYM, who are our direct neighbours in Zambia and had 28%.

The share price of ARCM is just drifting on minimal volume while we wait for the confirmation of conditions precedent. There is certainly no significant selling in that period. This is just a really good buying opportunity if you have available cash (and very frustrating if you haven't).

Maybe read the post he was replying to?

"Why has AA bought into ARC and their exploration project in Zambia for a fairly considerable sum when they could take on BR ?."

I reread his post. I thought that - "Until terms are met, AA don’t and won’t need to do anything, even if they were desperate to get a foot hold in the region. The project won’t be going anywhere" - was a reference to ARCM, not XTR, but I can see it could be read either way.