Member Info for Steve4077

Did you miss the deal-signing RNS, helpfully titled "Zambian JV Agreement Signed with Anglo American" ?

"Arc Minerals is pleased to announce that through its subsidiary, Unico Minerals Limited, it has signed a binding joint venture agreement with a subsidiary of Anglo American"

We are now awaiting government sign-off, but given what the government has been saying about welcoming AAL back to Zambia, and Anglo talking about the JV and their new education initiative in Zambia, that seems to be about paperwork and time, not decisions.

I think that probably counts as a little more than 'interest from the majors' or 'positive news flow'. It certainly is a 'game-changer' and we await the $75m drilling investment on Anglo's top 7 target licences in Zambia to see if we do hit the 'motherlode' - or maybe multiple motherlodes!

There is a very active Telegram group

@MT - so you already knew what the CFO said (because you are on Telegram), but decided to post the opposite anyway. If we ever needed proof of your agenda, you just provided it yourself :)

As you are on Telegram, you must also remember what the CFO stated as the reason for taking the loan when they didn't need for it for overheads:

CFO (28th March): "As for short term financing. It is nothing other than an insurance policy to ensure that pre-construction work and pre-season exploration preparations can continue uninterrupted pending bond completion. We have no intention of allowing it to go beyond the 3 months and possibly be converted... Cash wise, we remain in a good position and can cover corporate and basic operational costs well into 2024."

MT: "They need to pay off Riverfort which they do not have the funds to do or they A. Wouldn’t have taken the loan or B. Would have paid them back already. They only had enough cash for basic overheads not exploration et al costs."

PXC CFO (today): "We can repay Riverfort and cover overheads to end 2024 with the cash we have. "

It seems that the CFO of Phoenix and a random internet poster with an obvious agenda are saying contradictory things. Tricky decision on who to believe.

RW just posted on Telegram that they have sufficient cash to pay back Riverfort and cover operational overheads until the end of 2024. Obviously that would restrict operational activity, but there is certainly no short-term financial issue.

Also worth comparing the Chairman's statement from 2021 results, 2022 interim and today's RNS

2021 Annual Results (28th March 2022)

Not even a mention of the word 'Bond'

2022 Interim Results (29th Sept 2022):

"Our steadfast aim remains that of getting into production with no further equity issues, and we have embarked upon our corporate copper-linked bond issue, which, despite the current inflation and interest rate outlook, has attracted significant demand. We hope to update you more fully on this in the near future."

2022 Annual Results

"...we are in the process of completing an $80 million corporate copper bond issue, which will pay a floating rate linked to the higher of a copper price coupon or an interest rate coupon, but subject to a minimum coupon of 8.5% per annum. The bond will be listed on The International Stock Exchange ("TISE") in the Channel Islands. Although there can be no certainty until the final paperwork is received, we believe that the issue will be fully subscribed, and we hope to update you shortly in this regard."

We've gone from nothing a year ago, to 'embarked upon' six months ago, to the very positive statement today. Also, despite MTs attempts at FUD to get a cheaper buy-in price, the financial situation is fine, so there is no short-term pressure on the company.

The best theory I have heard so far was people having to sell due to margin calls and creating a snowball effect as the price fell lower. Could also be people needing cash, or lack of patience because it could be 'weeks' before cash received and drilling begins.

On Telegram, we've tried to speculate on reasons to sell and came up with the above, plus one or two others, but none of those reasons had anything to do with the potential value for ARCM. This looks a lot more like a short-term buying opportunity than concerns over the medium or long-term value of the stock.

I don’t think some potential investors have really understood the scale of the investment spend. 8m per year (on average) for years 1-3, 10m each in years 4 and 5 and 15m each in years 6 and 7.

And those are minimum spend amounts. If AAL hit something huge those spending totals will increase considerably.

On top of all that, Anglo are giving ARCM 14m cash over those first three years.

Declaring a tier 1 deposit for real, rather than PR talk, will take a while because it needs a lot of infill drilling and supporting analysis to achieve sufficient JORC level (Probable / Measured / Proved).

However, it will become obvious long before the above is achieved whether the deposit is likely to become tier one. If AAL start hitting either long runs of decent copper mineralisation, or moderate runs over a wide area, the market will react to that - consider how the GGP share price shot up on drilling results.

There has been previous drilling in this area and a lot of survey work, so I imagine AAL already have their primary targets in mind. What will be interesting is how many drill rigs they choose to use simultaneously.

@Major-Tom. Yes, agree whatever the reason for the MM price movements, it is a strong buy at these prices

Since the shares were last above 4p, which was 10 trading ago, there have been 30m shares traded, including buys. There are 1.23 billion shares in issue, so that is less than 2.5% traded in total, or about 1 share traded for every 40 held.

Obviously some of those were buys and some may have been traded multiple times, but even if we assume 2/3rds are sells, that means 59 out of every 60 shares held are still being held. Its not exactly a sell-off.

What seems to be happening in reality, rather than in PeggyWorld, is MMs dropping the Bid on minimal volume to trigger stop losses and perhaps some uninformed panic. Then they can sell those shares at a nice profit once gov approvals are all confirmed and drilling gets underway.

The deal is signed and its a binding agreement, which means any details have been resolved. It's covered in this RNS, helpfully titled "Zambian JV Agreement Signed with Anglo American"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ARCM/zambian-jv-agreement-signed-with-anglo-american-k35s9s3384nxnm6.html

Outstanding now is the government approvals, cadastre updates, etc. However, with multiple recent articles in the Zambian press about the JV and Anglo sending out press releases about how they will be funding education in Zambia due to the JV, that seems to be a formality.

Its just a question of how long it takes, but I am not in any rush - happy for the share price to stay low while I am buying.

>> I recall something similar being said 12 months ago.

In the last few weeks, the deal has been signed, Anglo have issued a press release that talks about their JV with ARCM, an Anglo representative took part in the recent webinar with ARCM and the cadastre is up and running again.

Other than that, yes very similar to 12 months ago.

A couple of people on the TG group have exchanged emails with NvS. Apparently, things are moving with respect to cadastre, remaining paperwork and drill plans for this year.

So on Monday you posted that the TG board has "No more info on the group more than in the public domain." then 48 hours later you are complaining about info posted on the TG board.

Its very odd to hear an 'investor' complain about the CFO speaking directly to investors, so given only three posts on here, all of which were negative and two were contradictory, I guess you have to go into the box with the other trolls. At least you were a little more inventive in the trolling.

Zambia is in the southern hemisphere so August is the middle of winter, not summer.

Are there any other discussion forums for PANR?

The high noise to signal ratio in this forum is off-putting for potential investors, so just wondering if there are any troll-free options?

Filtered - was going to reply but obviously wasting my time and I think given how tightly this stock is held, no one else is listening either. Stock is moving up and down a lot on minimum volume.

Will be fun to see just how fast it moves on finance closing.

Or the ATS results, or the rest of the assays, or the mystery news we keep seeing hints about.

Its odd how charts can predict the future for low-cap, news-driven mining stocks. Or maybe its just odd to think they can.

For those with less patience, he said: "don't believe everything you read online and make sure you do your own research"

You said it was going to 5p - then it went up 25% in two days. Now that is apparently just a 'spike' (even though it was based on CFO comments) and now PXC is going to 10p? I suspect that is as likely as your last 'prediction'.

Trading today is about 1 share traded for every 300 held. Good luck learning anything meaningful from that. Also, I assume the several items of imminent, potentially company-changing news are far less important than your chart?

When you de-ramp, at least try to come up with some plausible, fundamental reason why there will a drop beyond the mysterious 'chart'.