Member Info for Steve4077

Yes, JBER are the most blatant. They hold the top of the Ask, and often move it down, and then refuse to sell any shares, blocking any price rise. A few months ago, they held that position for 4 days. The only way to move them is for someone to physically phone them, in which case they obliged to sell 100k shares, which is the default amount for this stock. On AIM, MMs for a stock are legally allowed to hold short positions on that same stock - crazy but true.

BTW, I know myself and other get frustrated at MM antics, but at some point volume will increase to the point where manipulation becomes too expensive (which seems to be 4-5m per day). Market forces will take over and we will have enough volume for actual supply and demand to come into play. Once we get volume, the price almost always goes up. That volume is likely to arrive with regular drilling updates, which should be close now. GGP followed exactly the same pattern.

BTW on the 'MMs moving price' question, its also not unusual to have the price fall on days with more buying then selling. That is based on checking each individual trade vs real Bid-Ask, not official. Take today for example. We have 7 trades. 1 obvious 100k sell at 3.32p (at 8am) and then six consecutive buys totaling 332k with prices of 3.42, 3.42, 3.406, 3.42, 3.415 and 3.41.

If this is supply and demand, why is Ask gradually falling when there hasn't been a sell in six hours? If we had the reverse, with sells more than 3x buys, the price would have fallen.

We can't do anything about blatant MM manipulation and getting annoying about it doesn't help, but you can't pretend it doesn't exist.

I mean just above a third...

>> Caddy MMs do not move the price, demand and supply does.

Strange then that the same supply or demand moves the price different amounts on different days.

I took a look at all trading since the start of October. On the days when volume was above 5m (average 11m), we had 12 positive days and only 1 negative day.

On the days below 5m (average 2.9m), we had only 6 positive days out of 25. Below 3m volume, only 2 positive days out of 13.

Another stat. Total volume for all positive days since October 1st was 151m. Total volume for all negative days was only 55m, less than a third of positive volume.

Based on the above, it seems to take far less volume to drop the price than to raise it. It's almost looks as though the MMs take advantage of low volume days to drop the price to try to cause panic, hit stop losses and free up shares. Must be just a weird coincidence though.

Yes, agree, fulmar Green boxed now.

If any genuine potential investors are on the thread, by all means investigate what happened with Tingo, but make sure to also investigate the Anglo JV and what is happening in Botswana and then make an overall decision. Also suggest reading all RNS, preferably all the way back to 2019, and listening to the recent investor call and the interview with IG. If you do all that research, you can make a very informed decision on whether to invest.

What part of my post is a ramp exactly?

Re Tingo, I wrote that off long ago. As did anyone else with even a tiny bit of research. Maybe it will come good, but I doubt it. But then, who cares anyway?

Anglo just gave us $2m+ and are giving us $8m more cash over the next three years. They just started a $75m drilling program in one of the most prospective regions in the world and we will get 20% of whatever they find. We have outstanding assays in Bots and the money to start a new drilling campaign, plus the licence right next door was just bought out for $2 billion by the Chinese

If anyone is making a decision to invest or not invest in ARCM based on the Tingo situation, then they are really not seeing the wood for the trees. Every company has decisions that go well and decisions that go badly. You have to invest based on the whole picture and ARCM has an extremely positive situation overall. No money concerns and huge potential upside.

In fact, the only people who ever talk about TIngo seem to be trolls who are desperately trying to find something bad to talk about now their previous attack lines about Anglo not being interested, or the deal won't happen, or they won't drill this year, have all proven to be complete nonsense.

>> I can say I lost some money today.

How do you lose it - drop your wallet?

Or are you one of those investors who buys on a spike and then sells in panic when the price drops on minimal volume?

Or do you mean you lost 'theoretical paper money' that would be an actual loss if you sold now?

Honestly, if you panic about 'losing money' every time a stock has a down day, then I don't think investing will be good for your mental health. Also you really, really shouldn't be investing if you 'haven't done the research'. Why are you here? Did you buy shares because you like the colours in the logo?

/>> my point is that they wont be in any rush to have assays independently checked why would they?

OK, for the 3rd time now. Because its in the JV agreement that they do!

Plainly, if there was no JV and ARCM didn't have some highly desirable licences in Zambia, then AAL wouldn't care about ARCM or its shareholders. However, in the world we are actually living in, ARCM have managed to achieve some leverage over AAL.

That is why AAL are giving ARCM $10m cash, a 20% free ride on $75m of drilling, joint control over any new licences within 5km of the current area, independent assays for RNS, etc. Not because AAL are really nice people or care about ARCM shareholders, but because NVS and his team negotiated an amazing deal. The joint venture agreement is 147 pages to cover all this type of detail.

Do us all a favour and just listen to the investor call. You are just embarrassing yourself and annoying everyone else.

>> If AA have the best mining equipment going, they have labs on site, drill rigs galore and so on why would they send samples to other labs any time soon

Peggy, intrigued by Travis comment so I unblocked you. Plainly, as he said, you haven't listened to the call.

1) Anglo have great equipment for analysis in the field. However, before any results can be RNS'ed, they have to be confirmed by independent assay. Anglo can't mark their own homework.

2) Part of the JV agreement is for ARCM to post the assays in an RNS, even though AAL wouldn't normally bother at their scale. See point #1.

Back in your (green) box now.

Yes, I responded for my own amusement yesterday, but take, travel, etc. are all back in the green box now.

>> there is no more news due for the foreseeable

LOL. You mean apart from the $75m drilling programme that just started and will give us a steady news flow for the next few years, plus ARCM now have the cash to continue their own exploration in Botswana.

I'm really disappointed in the quality of trolling overall today. You used to be dedicated. Now its been reduced to 'the price will go down' without any real rationale or enthusiasm. It's a little pitiful, to be honest, like your heart really isn't in it any more.

Come on, pull yourselves together trolls! Have you no self-respect?

Sorry that was a silly question.

>> "If we are still 4p in a year from now, then I would start to wonder what was happening" - I think you will be lucky if this is as high as 4p.

Is that really the best you can come up with? At least try to find some misleading statistics or something.

I have to give that 1/10 for trolling effort.

>> Steve4077, is that the GGP whos shares 3 years ago were around the 37p mark and now around 9p??

Yes, I am glad you mentioned that. They signed the JV in 2019 when their shares were about 1.8p and they had a market cap higher than ARCM. They started drilling in 2020 and by the end of the year, their share price was 37p - more than 20x higher and a market cap of £1.7b, which even I think was too high but you can see what happens when sentiment takes hold.

We have actually have a better deal than GGP though, because we get $10m cash over the next three years (GGP got nothing) and therefore don't have to raise and dilute the share price. In fact, the CEO did an interview on Friday on IG where he explicitly ruled out any raise.

One last point, if ARCM hit the same market cap as GGP, our share price would be £1.38! I'll settle though for their current market cap of £470m (at 9p share price), because even that would give us a share price of 38p. Only 12x current, but thanks for highlighting that possibility!

I am, due to your FUD efforts. I appreciate it BTW.

However, now that everything is signed, cash received and drilling underway, the best you can manage is that the share price hasn't shot up within a week. Its a little feeble TBH.

Fortunately, the LTH here follow the Warren Buffet maxim that "the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". Go look at the GGP chart and check when the JV was signed, when the drilling started, when results came in and what happened to the share price. Then check were we are now in comparison.

If we are still 4p in a year from now, then I would start to wonder what was happening, but for now I have loaded up at a bargain price (thanks again) and I am happy to show some more patience while we wait for drilling results.

We all know you are a troll on this stock, so you missed out the BS factor in your calculations.

In-ground value is very different than processed metal, but the general principle is correct. The Sentinel Mine on the other side of the domes region has a 5mt ton deposit and that was 22nd on the original Anglo list of drilling targets. ARCM have the top 7 targets on that list in their licence areas, so them finding something similar is certainly possible.

Extracting that 5m tons will require a large upfront cost and ongoing operational cost. Sentinel was $2.3b up front and employs 6000 people. The mine is valued by the value of the extracted metal minus the cost to extract it, plus a modifier for NPV.

NPV, or net present value, takes into account the value of the upfront money if you put it into an investment instead. For example, if you invested a billion dollar at 8% compound interest, then in 5 years you would have almost $1.5b. So if you want to use that money for building a mine instead, you treat the $1b as $1.5b when calculating metal value minus cost of extraction.

Having said all that, that is a huge amount of copper so the profit on an NPV basis is still many billions. A tier-1 mine is generally regarded as one with a minimum $2b profit after NPV. ARCM would have 20% of that value, which is $400m or about £320m. In terms of share price that is 26p. Bear in mind, Anglo are hunting for multiple tier-1s and not minimal ones.

All of the extraction cost and NPV calculation applies in the same way for GGP. In fact, its a bigger factor for them as their ore is a lot deeper than expected for Zambia. So the short answer is that if Anglo find what they are looking for (and they are plainly confident given the deal they gave ARCM), you are looking at 10-15x current share price, which is the same conclusion that WH Ireland recently provided in their broker note. Finally, if ARCM hit the same market cap as GGP at its peak (£1.7b), our share price would be £1.38, which would be very nice :)

Yes, I was thinking the same about the share price. Can't believe I have been able to load up at these prices, so I would like to add my thanks to Peggy et al.

Diamond drilling is up to 100m a day in ideal conditions, but we are likely to get 60m - 80m per day here. They are running 24 hour shifts. That is 4-5 days per hole. We will only know for sure once the drilling RNS start to appear.

Also, bear in mind Anglo are committing $75m to the drilling program. Diamond drilling costs somewhere between $125 and $250 per metre. While there are some other costs, such as admin and assays, the drilling is still the major cost. Even at $250 per metres, that is still 300,000 metres over the next few years. Expect to see more rigs added as this progresses.

Drilling is fine in the rain. Moving rigs is the problem. According to the interview two weeks ago, Anglo have been surfacing the local roads to allow the rigs to be moved, so they can drill into the first few weeks of the wet season

There is a core yard setup in Zambia. Apparently AAL have some very good tech for checking the grades and using that to inform further drilling, but the samples have to independently assessed before being released to the market. I don't know how long it will take for those assays.

Drilling is to 300m per hole I believe. Based on normal diamond drilling rates that should take 4-5 days per hole, but it will also be affected by local conditions. There are two rigs now but more to come.