Cash runway23 Nov 2024 10:44
Here's how i'm seeing the cash runway, with forward looking figures and RNS info to support my hypothesis.
We will receive an £800,000 tax credit early next year, in addition to the £500,000 indicated in this weeks RNS. This should give us an extra 3 months (approx).
GDR proposed a cash raise of £6m last May 2024, and this money was approved and received in June 2024.
From the fundraise, and assuming a monthly cash burn of between £400,000 to £450,000 we are funded to between July to September 2025. Add the extra £1.3m (tax credit and order) and we are funded to somewhere between September to December 2025.
Additionally, the major data collections, used to support NHS commissioning will end around Jan to April 2025. So, there is a high likelihood that we will have a national rollout of one or both products on or before these dates. This will generate significant commercial traction, and will also increase the SP - any fundraise next year will look totally different to that off June 2024. For a start the SP could be 10-15p. Therefore, the possibility of a commercial loan could be considered.
Some caveats:
- There have been several new staff appointments, so the cash burn may have increased, although R+D spend may decrease as both products are fully developed
- I think its a legal requirement, but GDR normally put in a proviso in the annual report that they will need cash to remain solvent from X date. This sometimes suppresses the SP and i feel discourages new shareholders - this may change as we are on the cusp of significant commercial traction from the NHS.
GLA.
Stephen11.
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