Member Info for steph

UiPath great part of our portfolio. 38bn US valuation. Pretty big unicorn. Shows the business model of GROW working well.

I would imagine even at 7.08 we are a tad above an updated NAV/share. Can't wait for our revaluation on year end results in July. Also we should be 50% or more above NAV/share as we are growing nav/share at a fair clip and you can't by the exposure to the same companies in any other way. Proof of this trend will have an effect on the premium above NAV/share paid.

Was nice to see a 100,000 sell after close. Any volume above 7 quid indicates a deep market above 7 quid rather than a spike on thin volume.

I've got GROW penciled in for 50% over 2 years SP growth but rightly or wrongly I think (by gut not the head) that is a bit conservative. Maybe a low scenario (baring a general market crash) for GROW is 40% , medium 50% and high 80%. I just can't see a credible scenario where GROW is flat lining for 2 years without a strong downwards push from a general market event.

Black swans still about as they always are but much less probable than they were just a couple of months ago. I worried about Trump starting a war to hang onto power, acrimonious Brexit deadlock and no deal, and existing COVID vaccines not covering mutations. I think we are in recovery mode from some deep scares right now and FTSE at 6500 is not near highs like DOW so we should be less affected by any 10% sudden correction if it comes.

I've got covid sensitives stocks IAG and RR penciled in to double in the same 2 year period but with much less certainty. I've got some other tech funds but they, unlike GROW, do traded shares which are at much higher P/E's and thus in my book riskier. Thus "only" 35% penciled in sp growth over the same 2 years.

So I'm 90% GROW across my portfolio with 2% IAG, 2% Rolls and 6% other tech funds. A GROW groupie I suppose.

GROW remains for me the best risk reward equation. I think there is hidden value that will come out even in a flat market.

holding well given volatile market.

Frustrating broker guidance is all very dated and was made in the middle of the covid panic when it was not clear technology stocks were to be beneficiaries rather than hurt. We have year end results to look forward to when all will be on the table and all will be well.

I have penciled in a extra 10% boost on top of the "normal" NAV/share growth. SO 30% SP growth over the next 12 months and 20% for many years after that. My gut tells me that is overly pessimistic but my head tells me not to get carried away. Better to be surprised on the upside.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-manufacturing-covid-vaccine-valneva-b906243.html

Topped up a bit on GROW today at 6.70. Think this retrace is temporary.

Made a significant punt on RR. Nothing like my GROW position but still significant. Feel it is more a technology stock like TESLA than an industrial company and that travel recovery later this year will surprise on the upside. No change of bankruptcy this year or next. Recent broker targets between 50 and 130 so not a one way bet.

Motely fool recommend waiting.

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/01/27/should-i-buy-rolls-royce-shares/

sure it is temporary and I topped up at 6.70.

I also bought a few RR. Nothing to rival my GROW holding but substantial. Weird recent broker guidance between 50 and 130. So not a one way bet to be sure at 95 but I think worth a punt.

Was 300 for most of the first covid wave and no dilution since. Well capitalized and I think low chance of bankruptcy or massive share dilution. I think RR is misclassified as industry when it is now closer to TESLA like tech and deserving of a bit more future potential priced in. Lots of innovation yet priced as if making and leasing engines 100% of it's business and thus very covid sensitive.

with liquidity of 9bn and outflow this year only 2bn rr will comfortably limp over the line to profitability later n the year without bankruptcy or a diluting rights issue.

For the first covid wave in march to may RR was circa 300. Now we have a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of a vaccine and thus some now predictable dates as to when travel can near fully return we are just under 100. Makes no sense unless one thinks the company is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy which it clearly is not. Also air freight travel up which was not mentioned in the RNS.

I'm expecting a quick recovery to 300 ish around September and then a slow recovery to 600 over a couple of years. Markets anticipate news at least 3 months in advance so we only need a clear roadmap out of covid travel restrictions not actual exist.

For my covid recover minor punts I hold them on my spread bet and have quite tight guaranteed stop losses so not the same commitment as my fully paid for GROW. If there is a 10% plus major retrace they pop automatically.

I'm very happy we broke through 700 yesterday. We are beyond the outdated broker guidance so somebody is looking at the deeper value and not just at the tips and broker guidance. Good sign. I don't think it is a bubble at all nor expect a substantial retrace from here. Just the regular up and down we have been having on the general trend line upwards we have had since the depth of covid crash in March.

Even at 7 quid we have a P/E south of 8 on the underlying core portfolio (calculated by average sales and average profits on those sales) which for fast growing profit making tech is still just silly and will be silly for a long time.

Unlike say Rolls Royce, Barc, IAG or other individual shares I don't think grow trust can go bankrupt nor suffer from crippling dilution during a cash flow shortage. SO for me that means that if I can ride out a dip with GROW then the SP will recover in time. Risk management. For me GROW offers the best prospects of steady attractive year on year SP growth at an acceptable risk level. I've got 22% pa SP growth from here penciled in for the next 2 years. Might be faster as the valuation methodology shifts to post coved crisis mode or the underlying portfolio overperforms along with the tech market in general. Over 10 years I have penciled in 20% pa which I think is on the conservative side of the range of possibilities. With compounding that means a 100,000 position today will become 738,000. Get rich slowly not fast but with acceptable levels of risk. I can sleep at night and still get rich so long as I am patient.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/26/rolls-royce-new-covid-19-strains-travel-shares

supports your analysis.

I think IAG will recover faster than rolls due to business travel. For rolls it matters not whether business class seats are full or economy. For IAG there is a huge difference. They can flay half empty in economy if business full.

As you say a lot of covid recovery plays and maybe a trust to manage the thicket best.

Still I'm over 90% GROW. Just the right balance of risk and reward for me even at 700 (yippee). Rolls might quintuple over 2 years. IAG double. But they might go under as well.

I keep looking around for something that is a more conviction buy than GRWO even at 6.90 but find nothing attractive enough to, in combination, exceed 10% in total of my non grow portfolio.

I have a few quick covid recovery stock such as IAG, Barclays, Lloyds. They all could double within a year -faster rise than GROW of course, but unlike grow they all could go bankrupt too. Of those 3 IAG is the better buy as I think, like in UK pubs, those that survive covid will be able to buy up damaged rivals cheap.

Wetherspoons has a higher SP than dreadful market conditions should allow -I suspect based on the consolidation within the sector that is to come and markets look ahead and not at the closed or socially distanced pubs we have.

Same for airlines. IF IAG survives in relative good shape there will be 7 fine years of growth. Bit biblical that way. I think the SP is held back by uncertainty on when we get back to some semblance of normal on travel and high fixed costs even when planes are grounded. I suspect the demand for vaccinated passengers to fly without major restrictions will be so insurmountable governments will allow it and say so relatively soon. Maybe within a month or two. Then it is just a number of vaccinated calculation back to normal passenger loads. I suspect business travel will recover first and those are high margin seats that favour ISG.

Virgin in real trouble and will be damaged for years, if not bankrupt or bought out by IAG. On the budget end Ryan air will likely survive and thrive but many competitors will go. However I am betting on business travel recovery first. I've not researched how fragile IAG finances are. I'm assuming they are solid by the lack of Virgin style complaining.

Thanks Project. I pulled their last annual report.
https://ir.bionanogenomics.com/sec-filings/
which has the rather scary statements below:

"Since inception, we have experienced recurring operating losses and negative cash flows from operating activities, have experienced financial covenant breaches, and have significant accumulated deficit. We expect to continue to generate operating losses and consume significant cash resources for the foreseeable future. Without additional financing, these conditions raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern, meaning that we may be unable to continue operations for the foreseeable future or realize assets and discharge liabilities in the ordinary course of operations"

Also:

"A significant portion of our total outstanding shares are restricted from immediate resale but may be sold into the market in the near future. This could cause the market price of our common stock to drop significantly, even if our business is doing well."

If one looks back 5 years the company was 8 quid and dropped to 27 cents and now up to 9 quid . Very volatile and depended on broker coverage (now 14 quid). wild wild ride for sure.

Right sector and right product but for me just a small punt of a few hundred quid. Quite different to GROW portfolio of profit making tech companies. A small shift in broker target and it can dip very very suddenly. Seems a big risk to chase a single broker target of 14. You did really well to catch the uplift to 9 from 4.5 over 3 weeks. Not sure it will double again from here. Bit of fun for a few hundred quid for me and I'll watch that.

I'd happily do a trust that specializes in gene sequencing, covers the whole market and actively manages the sector picks. Somebody will earn great money in the sector over the next 10 years.

Using my 49 dollar "tip" I looked at Illumina, Regen Pharma, salesforce, Palo ALto , Qorva, Arista networks but all share the same high P/E's. Yes they will grow as companies to be sure but many many years of that growth priced in and for any disappointment along the way the SP can drop sharply.

My calculations for GROW's portfolio is there is an overall averaged price to sales ratio of 4.1 creating reported NAV (based on half year end results 2020). The averaged profits on those sales are about 65% within the core portfolio -a bit more than the average for the sector which is 55% or so for tech. Thus 4.1/.65= which gives an a P/E equivalent of the underlying portfolio of 6.3. We are a touch over reported NAV /share at 6.78 right now so equivalent P/E of a single tech company -not a trust like us- maybe 7.5.

None of those hot tips get even within a 10 meter barge pole of that. GROW's portfolio pretty much has very limited future growth priced in which is nonsense. It is not a challenge to predict which tech companies will grow. It is a challenge, though, to get an attractive buy in price within tech that has an unusual amount of that growth not priced in. Step forward GROW. No we will not make money equivalent to buying Amazon 20 years ago but 20% annual growth compounded year on year for up to 10 years forward -credible.

Unless there is something I am missing I think owning a trust that has 100% private pre IPO UK/EU tech companies is the spot to be. I think the ratios are so attractive because GROW is the only route for retail investors such as us to come in and the UK/EU sector is underfunded. A small amount of private investor funds are chasing a large number of EU wide opportunities. The pool is temporarily too large to handle and companies with great growth plans are being starved of enabling capital and thus the buy in prices for getting a piece of those private companies attractive.

Their defense, to getting ripped off, is to forgo fresh investors, delay IPO and grow organically funded by profits which might be part of the reason they are IPOing later.

I always look out for hot tips and this was tipped because it has 70% of the global market for gene sequencing machines which is obviously a fast growing market. I even paid 49 dollars to get access to the hot tip.

However a lot of good news and growth already priced in with a p/e of 81.

Grow with a p/sales if around 4 of the underlying portfolio and a p/ e of around 7 Or so is in a different league value wise and with similar or better year on year growth of sales and thus earnings

I might make a small punt on illumina and might buy a few on the dips but more I always look out for hot tips and this was tipped because it has 70% of the global market for a babble on a tree and never the tree itself for me. Grow is my investment tree .

Yes I feel like an expectant father with 4 months to wait.

" These gains have been offset by revaluation adjustments approaching £80m across the portfolio due to the impact of COVID-19. The majority of these fair value adjustments have arisen in companies in the earlier stage emerging portfolio and only 5 of the 18 core portfolio companies impacted. An appropriately stringent approach to valuation has been undertaken..."

What did not happen with the half yearly was a reversal of this £80m COVID revaluation adjustment. It will come sooner or later and supercharge results when it does. I'm hoping for in full for the period ending march 30 2021.

I'm impatient for our end of May 2021 trading update for our year end results to come out. 4 months to wait.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/16/18s-could-have-vaccine-end-june/

while not directly a help for tech the fast pace of coming out of lockdown permanently will lift all boats.

I've got a few stocks that benefit directly from covid bounce back including the parent of BA ISG). Playing a bit on the sidelines of my shares in GROW. Was not a conviction buy as there can be some hidden aftershocks of a period with huge losses and IAG may never recover to it's pre crash high range of 400 to 600. Then again it might quickly double from currently levels over the next few months. Worth a small punt.

Such a horrific dip must drive some consolidation in the airline industry and the survivors will flourish but who can say who those might be. I do think international travel volumes will quickly recover and be exceeded when the developed world is vaccinated. I'm not in the permanent shift in trip patterns on this. Possibility of minor declines in places that have "staycation" strengths, such as extensive driving distance cottage markets who have absolutely boomed during COVID restrictions, but that is not most of UK/EU. You would think that business travel will be permanently down but in the past new networking technology rollout has paradoxically been in parallel with increases in business travel. It seems video conferencing allowed an expansion of with whom we do business geographically and sooner or later most professionals will want to follow up with a physical meeting. It is our intrinsic nature.

I was invested in Barclays in 2008 thinking sooner or later it would get back to pre crash highs but it never did. Can buy Barc right now at the same level as the depths of the financial crash dip. Crazy but true.

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/uk-stock-market-a-change-in-fortunes-on-the-way

Do think we will be closer to 700 than 600 in the next few weeks

'Money has started to flow back into Britain - the Brexit deal is unequivocally positive'

Of course positive against the uncertainty created and resolved recently not against the situation as it was March 2016.

7/30/2020 Jefferies Financial Group Boost Price Target Buy GBX 683 ?
7/29/2020 Peel Hunt Reiterated Rating Buy ?
7/16/2020 Berenberg Bank Boost Price Target Buy GBX 690

All three broker updates were back in July which is light years ago in investor terms given the rapidly changing landscape as COVID impact, or lack of, emerged.

We need all three to update. I'd be surprised if when they do the consensus forecast is much less than 800. Petrol in the tank I suppose. I'm expecting a major NAV/share upgrade on year end results for varying reasons. Broker guidance after year end will likely be well north of 800.

Good news this morning