Member Info for Ste2000

well said Ech - love your bold and no nonsense approach
wishing you all the best and well done on Glen

my guess is something bad has leaked - this is terrible now

BOARD NEED TO HOLT TRADING

Interesting points but again you make a lot of assumptions, not build on solid facts.
Such as hotels being profitable- the property portfolio were transferred with high debt for instance.
But increased governance is needed, and a heavy weight chairman will be welcomed when announced. Plus a move to the main market forces buying from index’s - in my view this is when shorts go long.
Also on costs for ingenuity, as shared in the SoftBank investment scenario, 4% GMV of beauty and nutrition will go into ingenuity when split, helping to absorb these costs

Also as thg don’t split out divisional profit, your comment on ingenuity being ‘grossly loss making’ is not built on fact , but your emotion/ view

From q4 update - Thg has cash of 530m and finance of 170m. Same cash position as q3
Hope that answers your points

Fair play to you Ford. I really respect your honesty. I am in the same situation, and I genuinely hope this works out for both of us
I think we ah have to wait until late 2022, but I do see ingenuity as a key SP driver
Good luck

Ryan- why is Nuri not allowed to buy now. Maybe he sees a short term value play
whats your position ?

Qube have actually (net) reduced short position since update (now at 0.55 vs 0.58 pre update)

But this is why Homebase and Matalan are game changers - as you cant get their stuff other than from their websites

Yes FMCG are slightly limited in grand scheme of things, but they do drive money at 60% margin

I hope we get some more big 'traditional offline' retailers signing up - I see Frasers group as an opp, knowing Jack Wills uses ingenuity

final point - valuing ingenuity at 0 when it makes money is why FTSE is in the dark ages and is becoming a laughing stock, losing out to US and even Amsterdam nowadays as it cannot get its stuffy head around tech (or even e-business)

nice points Dan, and I like the idea of buying a whey producer

does anyone have a link to where we can track the sweet whey europe prices?

and with total actual revenue less than SP in value, and a clear path spelled out to margin improvement in Q4 call (why protein prices will reduce and +30% price increase not affecting demand, asian FX to be hedged, and ingenuity at 60% EDBITDA to be bigger contirbuter of business)

shorters have won the media battle, but the war is a series of many battles and I feel THG have some big guns waiting to fire

softbank valuation is based on this:

SoftBank option illustration: assuming 60% recurring sales mix from 600 sites live
by the end of 2023 (£170,000 revenue/site) and a 4% revenue-share on £2.5bn GMV
from Beauty & Nutrition, then Ingenuity Commerce revenues annualise at £270m in
FY23 vs £4.5bn option price.

Nutrition and beauty GMV is ahead of target (based on 2022 update view)
so as long as 600 websites are done by end of 2023 (which they are clearly scaling up for in people), this provides some colour with valuation at 16.6x earnings

I just relistened to the analyst call and Gallemore also suggested the 108-112m revenue figure at 60% is based on:
-just 85% of 400 websites that are in order book (so if all go live upside)
- based on 170k revenue share per website (q4 was higher albeit its xmas period, but still would imply upside for q4 '22 as minimum)
-not sure if Matalan is actually included in the above revenue numbers
- he also said other substantial agreements in pipeline or been won

I feel this will be upgraded again in RNS with update on new big client wins etc etc

They are probably lending them each time position changes. Don’t trust the squid

Agreed happy with the golgpdam squid has f Ed off

sorry to hear that smartpee, i honestly hope it turns around for both of our sakes
would love Primark to use THG ingenuity....

Amazed that THG senior management didnt expect SP erosion on these results. I figured they had back up RNS on the structural/ governance and maybe SB issues
Fair to say, I m totally disillushioned now

Thg margin at 7.4-7.7% is more double that of asos and boohoo so not Apple with Apple comparison

Yes, it is a mild profit warning. There are positives in terms of ingenuity progress and ARR, and cash is healthy
need governance/ softbank and beauty update