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"Especially with a stoppage costing 26k…."

Losing 26k production for 3 weeks maintenance only equates to 1.37kbpd on an overall annual production basis. pleasantly surprised if my figures are correct?

Might even command a higher price during this period with reduced supply available, then again maybe not.

Presume that's gap filled? didn't take long :-)

Belgrano - I've watched the Genel webcast a few times and I don't get same optimism you're describing. Seemed to me just more of the same till the politics are sorted and exports can restart via pipeline and no indication as to when that might be.

Changing the local sales price from $28 to $30 for the rest of this year doesn't even move my fair estimate a full 1p...

48k x $28 x 30 days x 36% = $14.5m per month

48k x $30 x 30 days x 36% = $15.5m

Extra $1m per month never goes a miss? Yes fully understand we probably won't achieve 48k average for the year and assuming 36% of gross sales will continue even if the CRP is normalised.

Answer my own question but considering that the $18.4m cost oil is simply returning money that has been spent (on behalf of the KRG) it's hard to believe that $19.2m for 6 months production is being seen as excessive by the ICG.

Just wondering if there's anything relevant to GKP to be gleaned from the Genel half year results?

19.5kbopd , $34 per barrel , $37.6m revenue , $18.4m cost oil , $19.2m profit oil

Keeping things very simple being paid about 31% of gross sales?

Think there must be a more amicable solution on offer if the Kirkuk/Ceyhan pipeline is going to be used for exports as there is a risk of needing constant repairs bearing in mind its location.

Also wonder how the ICG are intending paying the KRG budget allocation if crude oil exports are being denied at every turn.

We need exports to resume long term as selling crude at $30 per barrel doesn't generate much scope for future development.

I'm thinking if the Kirkuk pipeline is open it would at least signal resumption of exports via Turkey and hopefully the KRG pipeline would be a step closer to opening?

Possibly ties in with the report of the Kirkuk/Ceyhan pipeline being repaired and tested.

Interesting if true that this pipeline has now been repaired and tested.

Not sure as to the reliability or accuracy of this report ?

https://www.shafaq.com/en/Economy/Iraq-completes-Kirkuk-Ceyhan-pipeline-repairs

Remember that $35 is presumably an average for the 8 APIKUR producers, some are low $40's and others high $20's pb

"So the KRG can afford to start paying their debts to the IOC's."

Think best we can hope for there is for the 36% of gross sales figure to continue into the future beyond when the CRP has been normalised and effectively reducing the debts owed to IOC's

Think Todd's being released in the next few weeks so they can have his cell

They have a trip to Baghdad every month in order for ICG to pay the civil servants salaries?

Just wait, that meeting to be announced any day soon.

How do you get to that number when GROSS field sales are currently c$34 million a month?

Not sure if that's a trick question but presume KRG have approx 50% share in all the production/local sales.

300kbpd x $35 x 30 days = $315m x 50% = $157.5m

Suppose that leads on to the question of where exactly is the KRG 50% cut of current production going?

I'd estimate $150m per month every month

Theoryman, thanks for reply and yes I fully understand the differences in contracts from down south.

The costs incurred by IOC's either need to be recovered from production or paid for upfront by government so don't really see what the ICG are grumbling about.

In a round about way the ICG seem to be suggesting that the IOC's are either exaggerating their costs and profiting from them or they're being reimbursed too quickly.

We've established no margin or profit is made from cost recovery, so again I can't understand why the ICG sre suggesting this needs adjusting?

Are they suggesting that costs incurred by IOC's are not accurate or that they should be paid back at a slower rate?

Produce $40m of gross sales and receive around $3.8m, that's less than 10%, do the ICG really expect to pay less than that to the IOC's?

As far as I can see the profit oil income stream from the PSC is so miserly that it's hard to imagine how it can be changed/adjusted to offer even less.