RE: Shar Price Suppression13 Aug 2021 13:19
I am always interested to consider contrarian points of view.
The Ariquemes tin project I view as an unwelcome development for shareholders, although I can 100% see the logic from the (self-interested) point of view of OMI’s management team, who I presume have one eye on a post-JV world. However, I think it is too great a stretch to read it as indicating that the Anza project might be ended prematurely.
The JV partners are massive businesses, with a combined market cap of $60bn and free cashflow approaching $5bn. I met with an independent director of one of them last summer. He hadn’t even heard of Anza or Orosur, although he was aware of ongoing exploration activity in Colombia. I only say this only to point out how small we are to them. I’m not sure whether this a positive (as Seingred points out the $3m cost of explo is tiny for them) or a negative in that this is no big deal for either so may be subject to random decision making.
On balance I’m inclined to believe that the JV partners will want to continue, certainly to the 4 year point where they have 51%. Perhaps the $2m due to OMI in yr 5 will give them some negotiating impetus/leverage? In the meantime I suspect that both will be capitalising their share of the $4m “in the ground” expenditure, so there’s not really any pressure on them to discontinue. In short the Anza project is something of a free option for them.
So while it is good to consider carefully all of the options, I don’t see any reason for the rug to be pulled at this point in the way that you suggest. As a result I am happy to stay invested here and watch for drilling results and subsequent JV developments.