RE: Drill or Drop24 Oct 2018 11:29
The idea that the scoping report only contemplates Portland production is entirely unsupported by what we know of flow rates from testing, or by the company's own language as Penguins points out.
It is also interesting to see the durability of the "no noticeable depletion" idea, despite the insight into the company's expectations provided by the tanker schedule in the scoping report.
Penguins - you appear somewhat fixated by the 3 tankers/day line in the RNS, the intended audience for which is obvious. Following our original discussion, I did correct the number of days error in toughiv's original tanker schedule, and also incorporated your suggestion on smoothing depletion in the early years. This resulted in the following:
1. An initial production rate of 3,424bopd falls by 50% over 3 years, and 80% over 9 years. During the steady period of the last 9 years, just 2 tankers/day which supports the line in the residents leaflet
2. Using 365 days(!), average daily tanker movements over the 20 years comes down to 3.5
3. Total production over the 20 years is a little over 5.6mmbbls, or 920bopd. That is 27% of initial (peak) production not 36% as per my earlier post - sorry fat fingers....
This result set is closer to yours. I'm confident that it interprets the scoping report as submitted. Let's not debate whether "after 28 months" means "over 3 years" or "in the third year"..!
Gross NPV10 from my model for HH with contemporary inputs is $195m vs $138m indicated here: http://www.ukogplc.com/ul/Corporate%20Presentation%20May%2020172.pdf with most of the difference accounted for by the change in the price of oil. I think this would be a fantastic project outcome for the HHDL partners and their respective providers of capital.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
