The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Wbernard - the exact viral load (RNA molecules/ml) required to establish covid-19 respiratory disease has not been established yet, AFAIK.
Because of the rapidity of spread some are suggesting it may be quite low.
Interestingly, there was no difference in estimated viral load in those with symptoms and those without in Lombardy.
Similarly in China, a study looking at daily throat swabs starting on the day they became ill and finishing when they cleared the virus found no difference in viral load between milder cases and those who developed more severe symptoms.
So there is much that is not yet understood about this virus. Medically and scientifically interesting for sure, but a little disconcerting in more general terms I think.
... when reading articles, papers etc about results of new tests be clear about these terms :
The ACCURACY of a test is a measure of how close the result is to the true result.
The PRECISION of a test is how reproducible a result is when analysed repeatedly (e.g by the same operator, different operator, different ambient conditions etc etc.)
The SENSITIVITY of a test is the proportion of people who test positive among all those who actually have the disease.
A sensitive test helps rule out a disease when the test is negative.
The SPECIFICITY of a test is the proportion of people who test negative among all those who actually do not have that disease.
A specific test helps rule in a disease in when positive.
If you know the sensitivity and specificity of a test, and also the prevalence of the disease, then you can calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) of a test for that prevalence.
If you do read “scientific” papers and articles that use these terminologies incorrectly or muddle them up I would regard them as potentially a tad unreliable!
Properly used these test characteristics do allow performance differences between tests to be compared.
Antibodies, according to WHO, detected by antibody tests currently becoming available may not be reliable at all. There is a world of difference between combining antibodies and neutralising antibodies. Tests for possible immunity need to detect the latter. Those that pick up only the former will be simply misleading -"false positives" in terms of immunity status.
This may take much longer than the best estimates at the moment for decent antibody tests to be introduced.
Quite possibly, the stat antigen slide test may be extremely useful for quite a long time and on a mass scale. Could it be that as exit strategies from isolation are gradually relaxed then anywhere involving gatherings (sports events, meetings, concerts, passenger flights, holidays, cruises etc....etc.....etc...) might demand a negative POC antigen test immediately before anyone participates? The cost added to the ticket/admission price etc.
Ok - I'm jotting randomly on the hoof here, but the mind boggles.
I watched a third Covid-19 webinar in the series from the Brit Soc of Immunolgy this morning. Led by Prof Danny Altmann from Imperial College. This one mainly reviewed the best of the very recent published world research on antibodies. Fascinating.
But Prof Altmann did mention at the start a paper published yesterday in Nature Medicine which suggested that 44% of COVID-19 spread comes from pre-symptomatic people in the 2-3 days before symptoms appear.
So in some situations one could imagine that our POC saliva antigen test could have a very definite application for screening purposes in the apparently well population.
These webinars are free, and a good way to keep up with proper "peer-reviewed" COVID-19 research. Although they do demand some basic scientific/medical knowledge.
Check out the Brit Soc Immunology website for further info.
Now at TD.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200331/pdf/44gjs8ksgx8v4k.pdf
See page 2.
https://www.webcenter11.com/content/news/Some-North-Slope-flights-suspended-to-prevent-COVID-19-spread-568937541.html
http://www.thearcticsounder.com/article/2012northwest_arctic_north_slope_issue_covid-19
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/energy/2020/03/20/part-of-the-beast-conocophillips-massive-drilling-rig-slides-off-alaska-north-slope-road/
So we are at day-8 of Charlie-1.
And now we have coronavirus … !!!! …
I didn't expect that ……………….. . . .
Enter a red-cloaked DW …..
"Nobody, but nobody, expects The Coronavirus".
And now as well, we have a dramatic 88e intra-drill SP fall, a dramatic drop in oil price.....
And worse …
"Fetch the comfy chair!" "oh no, not the comfy chair...… please, not the comfy chair".
So anyway- always look on the bright side of life. All will come good in due course, I have little doubt.
No Mickey. Lefkosia suffers from an auto-immune disorder which destroys the outer layer of nerves throughout the nervous system. That's what he has told us & he has my sympathy. One of the many symptoms is reduced coordination.
Having said that, I don't know why he continues to post, saying the same sort of thing over and over. Lef and I have agreed to disagree about his views on charting, as indeed would most of the charting fraternity.
Use the filter option, perhaps?
http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/
Interesting paper.
I wonder if Nordic-3 rig workers (especially any new arrivals) are screened for these sorts of viruses? Could these pathogens survive very well in the cold dry N Slope conditions at the moment, and spread rapidly in confined shared living quarters?