Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Agree G-Man 11...and consider this - NvS and Remy are in their peak earnings period, well known in the industry, willingly engaged with and heavily invested in a tiddler, a rank outsider.
A multi-year commodities bull market is breaking out, with copper leading the charge and increasing in demand / value for decades to come thanks to electrification / de-carbonisation etc. If NvS / Remy really felt they were tinkering with a dud they'd be off like a shot, with numerous job opportunities placed before them in a buoyant market.
Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I'd say that their shares, options and warrants will make them very wealthy and I'm happy to be along for the (bumpy) ride, placing my trust in their experience to extract optimal value over time.
The interviewer was asking John Meyer (SP Angel) about shares he could invest in that could generate revenue within a year of his investment. Hence...Arc has the capability to earn from processing CE at Kalaba plant (on a small scale), but I wouldn't concern yourself. It was, IMO, just a theoretical observation by JM, albeit that the ability to generate revenue is always handy!
Since the March low ~$4,600 per tonne, copper is now up over 50%, almost at $7,000. This makes the value of Arc's interests far more valuable. A possible debt-deflation bust in 2021 may knock the price back down, but the central banks will print more than ever, a Green New Deal will be initiated, inflation will finally re-emerge and copper will go much higher (IMO). Large scale (Tier-1) projects will be highly prized (and priced)!
Re: M&A activity across mining sector:
"Looking at copper, there has only been one new major discovery identified since 2015 (classified with at least 500,000 tonnes of copper in reserves, resources and post production), and so copper producers are also focusing now on early-stage exploration.
S&P Global predicts that through the second half of 2020, majors will either maintain or increase their current levels of investment into the junior exploration companies, either through direct acquisitions or by participating in junior company financings."
I am guided by what's been stated to date, namely that hole 5 showed sulphides. From the latest presentation: "Muswema North Prospect: Copper bearing sulphides intersected at depth; Copper-cobalt mineralisation intersected". It was West Lunga where, according to Vassilios on the investor call, initial drilling didn't yield much and other areas were to be examined. So many prospects, it's easy to get confused!
Possibility - multiple Tier-1 targets become a reality; Arc management negotiate an exceptional deal / series of deals
Probability - of above has increased considerably with recent (AA / Fwiji / $6,800 Cu) news.
Day-to-day is noise; fundamentals will play out in their own time.
My take, fwiw:
Copper in high demand for decades to come (electrification / EVs / green new deals etc.) / supply dwindling / significant new resources rare and sought after.
AA gave up territory many years ago for strategic reasons / know that Zamsort-Zaco have huge potential / need to build a solid case in order for large cheque to be written to take back ownership. NvS will drive a hard bargain / brings in AA expertise, melds Arc data with AA pre-existing data for modelling, with current drilling campaign providing further data which (hopefully) increases the odds of identifying Tier 1 target/s.
The clock is ticking / AA have opportunity to conduct fulsome DD and the option to present a compelling deal. Meanwhile, other interested majors will be lining up...
Arc has no debt, is funded for 2020, with cash due in early 2021 from sale of 3moz Casa gold prospect. Nvs is a wily old hand, negotiations will essentially be peer-to-peer and monetisation of Arc's assets will define his career (and provide huge upside for shareholders).
Good to see new holders arriving...there's much to look forward to IMO. But it's probably worth noting that Fwiji has been part of the Zamsort / Zaco territory for many years and has long been listed as a key target (not sure where Sept 19 comes in?)
Also, in last week's RNS (29.06.20), most people seemed to focus on Fwiji news and overlooked the fact that CE and Muswema are already being advanced, so hopefully news before too long. Here's the extract: "Follow up work at a number of the other target areas, including Cheyeza East and Muswema, is currently underway."
Eloro - agree that focusing as a pure copper play is important, but (from prior NvS interviews) funding sufficient to get to the point where significant resources are proven (or not) should be available. Arc's existing small-scale institutional investors have a stake and have (as I recall) pledged to be a continuing source of capital. It's along game with (hopefully) very considerable rewards. In the meantime, the 2020 campaign is funded and we can only hope that additional promising data are revealed in the coming months.
From a macro perspective, the copper price is beaten up due to severe economic downturn, but just might find a floor owing to the virus shutting down mines / reducing production. In time, the world will likely move towards widespread electrification / Green New Deal. Money printing could result in inflation once we're through this brutal deflationary period, and real assets will likely rebound strongly. Copper will play a hugely important part in the world economy. Large-scale resources will be highly prized - majors will need to enhance their reserves and Arc's day will come (as long as good data keeps on coming).
Btw, anyone interested in how a mining legend goes about his business should subscribe to Real Vision (a financial video service - avail at $1 for 3 months as a trial) and watch the 90 minute interview Grant Williams has with Ross Beaty. Fascinating, and absolutely should be watched by all those concerned by the day-to-day sp movements.
The CASA deal was struck in early/mid November when POG was ~$1,460. It's now ~12% higher and that equates to much more attractive economics. Macro fundamentals (weak economies, epic money printing and ZIRP leading to increasingly negative real rates / stagflation) point to gold being in early stages of major multi-year bull market. So, hopefully, the eventual sale price will be on improved terms. Of course, it's DRC, so a hefty discount, but Robert Friedland made some very positive comments about Congo at the recent Indaba conference. Maybe the resource should just be mothballed, awaiting $2,500+ POG?
A compelling speech that underlines the world's multi-decade need for copper in particular. And a ringing endorsement for DRC as a relative value play on the global mining stage. I just hope those interested in CASA were watching RF's presentation.
As for Remy's recent presentations: it's good to see someone other than NvS persuasively articulating the Arc proposition; it's clear that dilution will occur only when absolutely necessary; there appears to be optionality regarding CE which should yield very helpful revenue; it's likely to take two drilling seasons to definitively prove up a truly significant resource. In the meantime I'd say it's a case of accumulate on weakness and wait for continued results to build a clearer picture (and witness a far greater valuation emerge).
The CLN was a shrewd move and means traders have less ammunition to drive price down short-term. As a result Arc remains well funded for 2020 drilling and has the upcoming Indaba conference for showcasing outstanding copper prospects and proven gold assets.
The CASA deal was indeed underwhelming but - fortunately - gold is on the up (in a world of stretched company valuations, money printing / repo operations and currency devaluation). As much as it would have been good to clean up the company's holdings, it's a good opportunity to flog a significant gold asset (with plenty of upside) at a better price.
Copper price recovering well since its 2019 low point in early September when the US-China spat was quite vocal. Since then, up almost 16% which should translate into better economics from Arc's small scale Cu concentrate production. Many commentators calling for general upswing in commodities, with copper needed in greater quantities for decades to come. Exciting times to be an explorer in the Copperbelt, funded for the year ahead, with a source of income, no debt and the majors sniffing around for meaningful resources.
In answer to the question regarding SOLG just before its re-rating.
This extract, from Master Investor 16.03.16, was at a time when SOLG was about 3p, having recently risen from under 1.5p. Hence SOLG Mcap ~£20m. They were on the cusp of a major discovery but cash available / dilution was a clear concern (btw, now >1.9bn SOLG shares in issue ):
"Exploration funding has already trebled Solgold’s issued shares in the 3 1/2 years since it started exploring at Cascabel and the shares have fallen accordingly. Only in November Solgold added another 8%, followed 10 days ago by 16%, raising £3.2 million to repay loans and creditors, to bring the current total to 954 million shares. Yet even this left little cash to cover a cash and exploration ‘burn’ of about £400,000 per month and rising, so investors expect another fund raise any time soon.
As for this ‘race’ against further dilution, Solgold points to the owners of recent major deposits whose shares often rocketed as their value clarified and investors flocked in. Examples are Tujuh Bukut (up 7-fold in a year) and Oyu Tolgoi (now Turquoise Hill, formerly Ivanhoe Mines) containing 2.7 billion tonnes of copper as well as gold and silver, which multi bagged while being explored. However, times might be different now. Then, investors were still following explorers. Now, especially on AIM (ASX and TSX are slightly better) superb drill results spur minor blips in the shares before they relapse again. So, rather more share dilution might occur today than would have a few years ago, and a share price might not rise by as much."
We can only hope that Arc's drilling campaign reveals truly significant resources. Where Arc is unusually positioned is that it has a means of generating cash from the small scale plant, critical to keeping the amount of dilution to a minimum.
Sorry I couldn't make the AGM, but am heartened to hear Fulmar's feedback. Ducks lining up and all that, and plenty to look forward to. With minimal financial resources very encouraging progress is being made while 'housekeeping' is dealt with. Call me an optimist, but similarities to the SOLG story - before the big move there was consternation regarding dilution and then, all of a sudden, majors moved in with strategic stakes and the rest is history. And here is Arc, scratching the surface of a bloomin' great unexplored chunk of the Copperbelt.