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From the chairman's statement 19.12.18:
"In line with Zambian mining regulations the c.400 sq. km not being prioritised and developed by Zamsort is in the process of being applied for in a separate joint venture vehicle (Zaco Limited) with existing and new shareholders. Arc Minerals will be the largest shareholder in Zaco Limited going forward."
So >50% was never claimed by NvS. We're just have to wait for clarity (some ambiguity re: ZamCo / ZaCo), and I would imagine clarity will emerge in whatever presentation document is being created for Indaba. Plus futher news on other matters, too, hopefully, for the gathered investors and possible business partners.
If the following statement, from Arc's updated website, is achieved the market cap could realistically grow to be 10-20 times today's. There's very little downside with a current valuation of £17.5m.
"Arc Minerals has commenced with an exploration drilling campaign and firmly believes that the Kalaba Project and along with the exploration targets in the ZamCo Licenses offer significant potential for proving a major tier-one copper-cobalt discovery."
Mighty oaks from little acorns grow...
CB - liking the optimism, but I think we should simply await clarification because there is ambiguity - messaging is open to misinterpretation - and trust that NvS is quietly getting on with negotiations that will put a smile on our faces. Btw, according to the latest RNS Arc will be the 'largest' shareholder in Zaco, which could possibly be >50%.
In the meantime, if anyone fancies some light reading, try the SolGold presentation from March 2016 (on its website) - shows just how a company's valuation can change in a year or so. NvS has won all-important control of a pair of Tier-1 projects, is proving-up resources with huge additional potential, and in 2019 there's every chance the majors will be taking stakes. Exciting times!
That's it...all dry powder has been exhausted with final, final, final top-up at 2.7p. Rightly or wrongly, I have absolute faith in NvS and the processes that are going on behind the scenes. The market cap is beyond bonkers, but I can now simply sit back and await for the fruits of his labours to emerge. I truly believe we'll be getting a much deserved re-rate before too long. Merry Christmas to all. Cheers!
Unlikely to be anything on Casa, other than getting DRC election out of the way, and can't see anything happening re: Sturec. But at Zamsort there should be more drill results which. pre-JORC, should allow the back-of-an-envelope calculations to move on up; commissioning of the small scale plant; and, by end of December, the outstanding convertible loan note being dealt with. Other than that, upward-shifting sentiment in the Co, Cu, Au spaces would be helpful, with yesterdays Teck-Sumitomo deal showing just how valuable Arc's assets might turn out to be.
It's clearly a vast resource, but it's undeveloped: Tack Resources has just sold a 30% stake in its giant QB2 Chilean copper mine to Sumitomo for $1.2bn. That values the project at $4bn. It will doubtless be a monster, but it shows the current valuation of immense undeveloped projects. And, with numerous interesting prospects in the thus-far undeveloped Zambian copper belt, Arc is valued at under £20m, a value that is more than underpinned by its proven 3moz of gold. This, folks, is a value anomaly of vast proportions.
Nice one fulmar29 - and how about:
I don’t want to achieve immortality through my work...I want to achieve it through not dying. Woody Allen
I’m at an age when my back goes out more than I do. Phyllis Diller
Apologies for the digression...
Nice to see a reversal of sentiment and, given the age profile (myself included), this is resembling a Last of the Summer Wine investment club!
Took the opportunity in recent weeks to reduce my average cost price and now holding 5.5m, so fingers, toes etc. well and truly crossed. Despite the pain of seeing the sp fall, it's AIM, strange things happen, but most importantly there is monster value in ARCM which will one day be reflected. If the plant can pay the bills (including additional drilling), then it's doing a fine job. It all takes time, but now's a great time to load up ahead of what must surely be an exciting and rewarding 2019.
Couldn't agree more p00rman. But board will be assembled so investors can see for themselves a team with great confidence in the future. Give or take, all is on track and I'd expect updates from the conference call, but nothing exceptional. The exceptional thing is the bonkers market cap but, with demonstrable progress, that will turn the corner. In recent months it's become clear that it's 2019 and beyond for very significant returns. Been here since 2011, so what's another year or two.
Did I imagine it, or did I see Arc re-tweeting the 'photos on a lovely day at the Zamsort plant' today? Pretty sure I'm not hallucinating, and I might be over-thinking this, but possibly a gently reminder from management that nothing's changed, progress continues to be made and the copper, cobalt & gold hasn't been stolen by aliens.
Also, saw a Sprott / Rick Rule interview recently in which he describes the thrill of seeing companies sitting on terrific resources with cratering share prices. His view (and I concur): grab the opportunity and fill your boots! So I did...and have added ~350k in past week.
a lot of froth being blown off the markets, notably FAANGS, Cryptos...and even pot stocks.
People love to buy into a narrative, and in the coming months & years, a monster narrative will build: good old-fashioned natural resources that are essential to the electrification of everything. Demand for copper & cobalt will grow substantially, year after year after year; and maybe some inflation and dollar weakness will provide gold with a cheery outlook too.
And to think of the proven and being-proven resources at Casa and Zamsort, in which Arc owns controlling stakes. With no debt and a market cap >£20m happy days lie ahead, underpinned by era-defining macro trends.
Some of the notes I made during the call, for those unable to listen in:
NVS tremendously pleased with achievements over past year, notably taking control at Zamsort.
Now about 2/3 way into drilling (had a RC rig down for 3 wks, but now back in service)
Potentially very large system at Kalaba, currently 500m x 500m (seemed pretty confident that equates to ~60m tonnes), but stepping out to 5km, which they're looking at now.
It's been a surprise that there's more Co than anticipated.
Clearly of interest to majors (5 of them), with three site visits thus far, but no reason for detailed discussions until JORC and there is something more substantial to discuss.
"Advancing in a professional, structured way"
Further areas of great interest and the same exploration / consulting team used by Robert Friedland in DRC (impressive in itself!)
Assays have been slow, looking to see if there's a viable alternative - "frustrating, thut they'll come through"
Very close to SSP commissioning; further work to identify optimal mode of processing - seemed v excited by potential for a very economic 'new' chemical approach.
Looking to target the next zones, beyond Kalaba - "further areas of great interest"
As for Casa - some shareholders have been exiting ARCM recently, having been locked in for a while. Not yet speeding ahead with scoping study, esp because there are a number of NDAs signed (mostly Chinese) and they will independently be conducting analysis (and it's best not to spend where it isn't absolutely necessary). Also, as with Sturec, why proceed in haste before gold "starts to shine".
That's about it. I topped-up in past few days, including 3.1p today. All good things come to wait.
Exciting times ahead.
Unexpected top-up at 3.175p - not what I really want to be doing, but fundamentals are hugely exciting and in just a few short months today's sp / mcap will look ridiculous. If the sp dips further, then further top-ups will occur. If management see value north of 4.5p, then so do I. And today's Tweet merely underlines the fact that the plant will be finished soon, even if a tad delayed given the tweaks to allow production of Cu & Co.
Is Nicholas Parsons running the ARCM book? Because it's Sale of the Century time!
The Mcap vs assets vs macro drivers simply beggars belief. So, a couple of top-ups for me, and will top-up again if this madness continues. At some point there'll be a 'killer' RNS and the seller will be taken out in a flash (IMO, of course).
What a difference a week or so will make (IMO). Little volume, waiting for news, some rather lame de-ramping and MMs dropping the price to take advantage of weak holders. Another dip below 4p was sufficient for me to add some extra to the PF. You can wait for ages for a London bus and then several come along. I rather suspect ARC's PR team will be working hard to manage the flow of RNS info in the coming days / weeks. Bring it on!
Westie50 - good luck with achieving your goal of 800k shares - you must be willing NvS to be slow in delivering the next RNS!
Re: Casa, this from 28 June RNS - "99% interest in CASA Mining Limited, a private company that has a 71.25% interest in the 3 million-ounce inferred Mineral Resource at the Akyanga gold deposit in the DRC."
The other holders are DRC Government (~5%) and MMG Limited "MMG’s major shareholder is China Minmetals Corporation, one of China's major multinational state-owned enterprises" (from Optiva research note - July '17 - avail on ARCM website and which, although very much out of date, contains plenty of valuable info.
All the best
Agreed, fulmar29. Other holders of Zamsort & Casa have seen the upside in trading their shares for ARCM, and hopefully full (or meaningfully increased) ownership of Zamsort will follow. I suspect there has been a great deal going on behind the scenes. Anyway, since plenty of us are clearly getting pleasantly agitated as we await a flow of RNSs, here's my back of fag packet calculation on potential sp.
CASA (with likely increased resource + end-of-yr scoping study showing much improved economics) - $70-100m sale in 2019, x ~70% per ARCM's stake = estimate of ~$60m net;
Zamsort (with maiden Kalaba JORC showing v attractive resource / grade) and with further drilling campaigns at others of the NINE highly prospective zones (within large scale licence) it's not unreasonable to see a 2019 buy-out of $400m-1bn (x 70% ownership = (optimistic) estimate of $500m to ARCM. (Btw, it's well worth taking the time to look at the history of First Quantum's Sentinel mine to properly understand the scale and huge upside of Zamsort).
In HUGELY guesstimated terms, that total rounds down to ~£400m and let's say there is some further dilution (hopefully to take full control of Zamsort plus outstanding warrants & options) which takes us to, say, 800m shares. Well, that's 50p, and it's my ultra-simplistic calculation that allows me to believe that a 10-bagger from here is not a pie-in-the-sky notion.
And that does NOT factor in: cash for Sturec sale (who knows!); cash from demonstration plant (avoids dilution and will be massive profile-raising 'feather in cap'); increasing strategic importance of Cu/Co becoming, with a wave of M&A deals for a rapidly-decreasing number of Elephant-sized resources; management (who've been around the block several times and are no mugs) with serious skin in the game...and I rest my case.
Feel free to shoot me down, but that's my schizophrenic optimistic/conservative estimate. One day soon we move on up and (sadly) the nutters arrive on the board. At that point I'd suggest looking away and simply holding tightly on to your shares, but that's just my opinion.
All the very best
It's like waiting for Christmas morning, hoping for something truly exciting to unwrap.
News must be imminent. Most likely Zamsort initial grades, but also resource upgrade at Akyanga (NvS mentioned extra 200-600k oz on top of the 3m); plus possible sale / JV news on Akyanga and / or Sturec. Who knows which will drop first, but clearly interest picking up - I'm being offered 4.66p for up to 550k shares. Upside massively higher. What an autumn lies ahead!