Member Info for SquirtyFlower

The shares are being issued to senior employees who do NOT have management responsibility. In other words, not issued to Fortune, Mikhail or any of the other directors or to settle any tax liability the directors may have.

How debt will be repaid is always a valid question. On this, my view is similar to cindercones that the 2022 interims will surprise to the upside. BBN's update yesterday also made the good point that the current high US prices for V will already be baked in for July and August because of the month lag so this is already getting 2H22 off to a profitable and cash generative start.

Looking ahead into 2023, it is worth remembering that Biden's trillion dollar infrastructure bill was passed with emphasis on rail and bridge infrastructure (lots of steel and V required); events in Ukraine means defence bills are going up (and they will probably mean less Russian V available to China because at some point Putin is going to have to start replacing his colossal hardware losses). Finally green infrastructure will continue its inexorable demand, both in its own right and as part of the effort to wean ourselves off Russian resources. In short, even though the world economy is struggling there's plenty to keep V prices high in 2023.

Finally, if the financials do improve, then so will the share price and Orion may be able to profitability convert the loan. While this would be painful from a dilution view and cause another share overhang, it would mean we keep the cash and can use it to accelerate the 8000mtv growth plans.

All this ignores BE and what may or may not accrue to BMN from the split.

It doesn't necessarily mean production results are bad, but FM has history rolling good and bad news together into a larger RNS and I fear this is about to happen again. The question is whether the results are the sweetener or the kick in the teeth.

Like SuperRoty I really wish he'd announce well in advance when the next production results will be and stick to it. This stuff is so basic he should be able to announce the year timetable on Jan 1st.

Although BMN has increased debt and reduced cash over the last 2 years, as I commented this morning the latest ARC broker report shows this strongly reversing over the next 18 months. Debt should halve with settlement of Orion and cash will triple up to $34m.
Furthermore, even at $40/kg V the ongoing cash generation from 5000mtV production in 2024 and beyond should comfortably allow the $151m expansion costs to be met over the 8 years or more timescale the company anticipate this taking.

There seems to be a concerted effort to talk BMN finances down. Yes things have been getting a little tight for comfort over the last couple of years; yes the company had production misses; yes South Africa is an economic basket case; yes the global economy is struggling. Nevertheless the company has been hitting production targets over the past 12 months and unit costs are reducing. Share prices are supposed to be forward looking and it seems clear to that BMN finances are going to rapidly improve over the next 18 months and beyond. It really is fill your boots again time.

Latest ARC report shows net profit estimate of $6.6m for 2022 and $15.1m for 2023. This is off $40kg vanadium price. The report also shows very strong growth in cash on the balance sheet - from $10m in 2022 to $34m in 2023. Debt will halve next year via settlement of the Orion loan (they assume through conversion, but with the projected cash level there would appear to be scope to settle some in cash at least).

On these figures, we don't need a V price above $50/kg. Every $1 over $40 will go straight to an already healthy projected bottom line. The key is for BMN to hit the main things in their control, namely the production and sales growth targets for this year and next. The ARC net profit and cash projections for 2023 also provide strong support for financing BMNs recently announced production expansion plans over the next 8+ years.

Agreed Lindon. However I do wonder whether Acacia or Jose Borremeo (or some other wealthy investor) are beginning to think about buying more shares on the open market at these prices. They could make a rapid and substantial return on the specific investment as well as driving up the value of their existing holdings.

In other words, you just made it up.

There was nothing wrong with your post. LSE takes down the whole thread when a post is reported. There are a number of posters on here who use this to deliberately post something objectionable or provocative on the same thread as a very good and informative post to either get the post removed altogether or get it quickly relegated from page 1 by all the ensuing arguments. Both supporters and trolls play this game.

Main thing to do is always take a copy of detailed or well researched posts so you can re-post if necessary.

A number of interesting snippets from the Going Concern section of yesterday's RNS.
1) Average V price received 2022 year to date is $44.89.
2) This is higher than the company assumed ($40.99) for the year.
3) Company is assuming 2023 average pricing to be $35.04.
4) Company has modeled pricing falling 10% below those forecast and does not anticipate a cash shortfall even in this scenario.

The company is also confident about repaying the Nedbank RCF in Nov 2022 and the options it has for repaying the Orion CLN in Nov 2023.

I see all of these observations as being very positive for the cash position and the ability to meet debt obligations over the next 18 months. It also gives me confidence that the company is making financial plans based on conservative pricing expectations and there's plenty of scope for the actual prices received to come in ahead of those used for planning purposes.

The specific words were:

Having incubated Bushveld Energy and created the critical mass to ensure its success, we intend to carve out Bushveld Energy as a stand-alone company focused on the VRFB value chain. We believe that this will help to crystalise the value of Bushveld Energy and to position it in the capital markets to attract the appropriate energy-market focused institutional investors with an appetite and understanding of the energy proposition, while retaining the vertical integration proposition of Bushveld Minerals via a significant shareholding in the stand-alone energy company.

Today's RNS explicitly states (a long way down) that BMN will retain a significant shareholding in the spun out BE.

Hopefully Fortune hasn't forgotten he needs to press the RNS button on these today....

Yep, sorry, my mistake. Thought it was part of the original deal. Maybe they want to preserve cash while MUST get their prospectus together or because it isn't clear how things will go with Garnett in the future given the court case verdict.

When the initial Enerox deal was struck a year ago, BMN were in a much tighter financial situation. V prices were much lower, production costs were higher, and production volumes were lower and more erratic. BMN barely turned a profit once the all-in costs were included. Covid was also more of an issue. Therefore BMN needed to be very careful about cash flow and this meant giving PRIM CLN terms that might not have been necessary in better times for BMN. Today's conversion is the result of terms struck 12 months ago rather than today's cash flow. Remember it is PRIM's decision to now take up the option of shares (not surprising given the improved profit potential these now offer to PRIM) and the consequent dilution is something BMN agreed to accept 12 months ago rather than something BMN have decided on today. Given the much improved V price today, BMN might have negotiated a cash deal structure had it happened now rather than a year ago.....but we'll never know as the deal is what it is.

If you think our planned electrolyte production capacity will consume all our vanadium production then you are in cloud cuckoo land. We will continue to ship vanadium as the largest part of the business for years and years to come.

If you think our planned electrolyte production will consume all our vanadium production capacity then you

Trouble is, Mark, your history gives you away. On 3 March you said you were all in on bmn@45p, but then on afternoon of 9 March you said you'd sold all your other equities and gone all in on Evraz. On the morning of 10 March Evraz was suspended and hasn't come back.

Struggle to understand how you can still have bmn average of 45p when you posted that you'd sold everything to buy Evraz.....also must have been a remarkable about turn to get out of Evraz again before it was suspended. All in all, your words don't add up to anything other than time-waster.

And in other news, Henry VIII had 6 wives, America declared independence from Britain, and it's been discovered that the the world isn't flat. Thanks for your timely update, Alfred.

The two £20k trades at 15:29 are a bed and ISA.....a few days before end of tax year, 7 seconds apart, and at the lower end of the spread (which is what an investor wants and a good broker does as more shares get moved into the ISA and out of lying Rishi's clutches).

So we're in limbo for another 4 months on this. Nice to see Prim made 9% interest and another 20% so far in the gain on their bmn shares so at least they're laughing all the way to the bank. When bmn finally get round to rns'ing their update, perhaps they could also update us on:
1. The state of the relationship with Garnett. I imagine it's poor after the court case but we should be told one way or the other.
2. Most importantly, what's the progress towards the 30mw capacity by end of 2022 that this investment was supposed to deliver.

The deal is what it is now. The key for me is when bmn shareholders are going to see revenue and profit hitting the bottom line from it.....and the company seems very quiet on this. Time to improve its comms and demonstrate delivery.