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Thanks Pelle. That Will be great however given how the crims in suits at the major Banks and hedge funds operate i am assuming that the price of brent Will Rise leading up to the deal and then fall as soon as it is signed. Hopefully a fre shorts getting burned right now :-)

Couldnt have put it better myself oxy. I think most of this expert opinion is complete dog**** written by psychopaths who want to drive the market in a direction

Check out att bermans latest Tweet

U.S. crude oil storage would not reach capacity until November assuming a constant never-seen fill rate of 1,500 b/d (10.5 mmb/week) and not including Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
#OOTT #oilandgas #oil #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC

Pelle - i am working from home but its as chilts explains. I think the government Will quite soon identify a way to leave lockdown as Sunak is itching for it

Hi pelle! I mean the model where society is more or less continuing as normal not what has been implemented here in england

Who knows What Will happen with the price of oil. I am stunned as i thought that the saudis and russians would keep this up for at least 3 months. I think that it is Plainly obviously that these price levels are not sustainable for anyone no matter What they all say. Saudis cant find destinations for all their oil, russians stuck behind 3000 Miles !!!! Of pipeline and us stick behind 1000. Enquest has an advantage in that sense on being right on the water as Jeff Curtis said. Most North American oils were getting just above $0 at beginning of last week and Canadian oils were negative. The big issue is of course all the shut ins. That might be the solution. The Swedish model. Trump is severely misguided if he thinks that the us Will not need to Do any heavy lifting. This is now a global political issue. My bet is on brent quite soon (next 3 months) being over $50 because demand will return and maybe the world has learnt a lesson that cheap oil is not sustainable. I think a break even of $35 - 38 is a very good level and will lead to good profit levels once the kraken premium returns.

Hi Pelle. Yes it was. Thanks. I think poo Will move quite wildly the coming weeks so difficult to assume average price. Who knows What Will happen

U r a virus itsaponzi

F off itsaponzi!

Hi Oxy - yeah I guess that people don't want to put all eggs in the one basket but as CFO it doesnt really send the right message although AB more than compensates

Hi Pelle - js does not invest his own money in enquest

They also had cash on hand of 8.5M

Interesting - was just looking into Whiting petroleum corporations accounts to try and understand why the folded today. They had debt maturing on April 1 of 265M and they were not able to meet these commitments. This I assume is what triggered today's action.

Hi Romaron. I think that AB/JS were caught somewhat offguard. In my opinion their response was the recent OU where they outlined how they could reduce BE to $38 in 2020 and $35 in 2021 with further potential reductions. I agree that 6 months is probably the timeline we need to focus on to ride through this storm. Currie's analysis was very good and makes me somewhat hopeful that North Sea oil can avoid the shut ins that will hamper the land-locked oilers.

Good find Mavrick. I don't always like what Jeff says but he is definitely one of the most savvy and switched on oil figureheads and what he says definitely moves markets. Interesting his call on land locked oil v sea oil. Finally some bit of good news for a North Sea operator. Interesting call on the land locked oil producers and particuarly Rosneft. I am convinced talks are ongoing between US and Russia. If there is a whiff of this damaging their oil fields because they have tight reservoirs then Putin will be acting but it may well be too late.

There is a lot of modelling that can be done with Enquest and we know that BE is $38 (probably lower in Q2 moving forwards as it was potentially higher in Q1). We have hedges for approximately 6% of production at $52 so not great but if spot averages $30 for the next 2 quarters and with the Kraken premium of $4 a barrel on about 33% of production then average realised price is roughly $32 and therefore a fcf loss of $6 a barrel then over 6 months we have negative fcf of$65M which is ok. I agree though with Pelle that not hedging for most of 2020 was really bad.

Romaron - I would almost say that Enquest's SP like many other North Sea oilies is priced as if everything that can fail will fail. I think that April will be awful as regards Corona virus and Brent but then focus will shift to the future. I may be completely wrong but I think having paid off all debt and having the PiKs negotiated puts Enquest in a stronger position. Enquest could have hoarded the cash but they decided to pay off the debt early. Everyone knew in advance that H1 2020 was going to be awful (supply overhang but they didn't know about Corona virus of course). I think it was a mistake to just have the hedges for Q1 but maybe something has been negotiated (who knows) or maybe they sold them and made a capital gain. Q2 will be bloody but it will be that for most companies even PMO with 40% hedge. PMO has a break even at 50 and Tullow at 45 not to mention all the shale oilers in America.

Hi HMH - I agree with you statements and I also agree that supply will come off. We already see that. Q2 will be bloody for sure however and this is where I maybe wrong and would be interesting to get your take but I feel that the fact that Enquest has agreed with bondholders to accumulate debt if Brent is below 65 is a big advantage and that they have paid off debt until at least march 31 2021 but I suspect that they have paid off that 65 owed then and have 360m remaining to be paid end september 2021. They have a covenant test of ebidta : debt for the SFA and they need to hold a percentage of the net debt outsanding (25% by october 2020 that is to say 90M). In this situation I think that Enquest does not have any covenants or tests to overcome in the next year to year and a half. This is not the case for Tullow and Premier and all the American shale companies. They are being tested in April 2020. Supply will come off and who knows maybe the wheels of the economy will come back faster than we think. I think by July we will be back up again. In those 3 months Enquest will have negative cash flow of 100M but then I think that Brent will recover.

hi pelle - you can email me on squifsquif33@gmail.com

Hi Pelle - yes i guess we are aligned on average price but maybe differ on break even. What Do you use? I went for 38 but that is maybe too optimistic. Regardless the world now has a huge problem on their hands - enquest break even is far less than most parts of the world and no debt to repay for at least a year. That is not the case for most. My goodness - you have sovereign wealth funds cashing in shares after 18 days - can you even conceive What they Will Do after 100 days!!!!!

I of course feel concerned over the current state of the economy and long term oil prices but if this is the response from the us government after 18 days and we hear that oil sovereign wealth funds are selling stocks, russia is uneasy, Canadian oil Sands are getting shut in and North Dakota oil prices are negative then this should surely be sorted out by june. That is to say if these guys are on their knees after 18 days What is going to happen after 90????? Pelle - if the hedges were q1 only then i disagree with you that enquest was fcf neutral. They would have cashed them all in. I stand by my claim that enquest went at least 23m fcf plus and they should now have 290m cash available. In the worst case They Will burn through 100m in cash this quarter. They have Done a smart thing with the PiK and i am not sure how many other oil companies have Done the same. G20 stands for over 85% of global gdp. It includes russia, ksa, china and usa so They could reach an unconvential solution to avoid What could turn out to be a very messy time for the one Resource the world cannot Do without - oil. Everyone is suffering at these levels and many have covenant tests.