Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Foresight; I think Sailplane has a good handle on this; It would be a seriously major surprise if Dr Trice's work on the odt was significantly in error.
Water will only '....find its way up and into the wells...' if there is a pressure driver: This could either be aquifer at the large scale of liquid-flowing FB fractures or surface 'tension' effects for the very narrow fissures; as Sailplane indicates, neither are remotely likely to be a consideration if Dr T's work is vaguely correct - and so far I see no data to indicate it isn't. So the perch may be larger than expected, and - if the reservoir model is even vaguely approximating reality - then there is a high probability there will be many more 'perches'. But also a lot more oil. The hydrostatics don't lie: - water is even LESS likely to be coned from larger fractures than small ones. Imo the key thing to watch here are the PI changes with drawdown: the most recent plot of these showed the rate of change decreasing somewhat - a very good indicator (if it got asymptotic the oil reservoir would be infinite....) - maybe it would be worth a look at, say, ghawar's figures for early-time production, as a comparison.
Some folk here like to write choo-choo bedtime stories, I prefer tech data and stats. I still believe Dr T had it fairly right, but Hur's comms were pi**-poor, as has been some of their other 'management'. What remains to be seen is that ongoing PI data, and how oiler valuations/earnings generally progress through the green revolution era.
GLA
WWN, AK,Dalts; generally agree with the thread sypathies of hur being a 'recovery play' rather than the speculative investment 'high-potential' it was early-days. (On Dr T's presented evidence and convictions though, disagree that water 'breakthrough' is the issue - perched has always been on the risk register and, unless RT has been telling outright porkers, is just a realised risk - but perched isn't 'breakthrough' - a term generally used for aquifer, as i understand it. (Pls correct me, anyone, if wrong.) Hur combined and coincided a string of sub-optimal news with a black swan and got to a bod quandary, as i think ADUK has alluded: 'fix' 7z (risky) or drill 8. [With hindsight, LinWar was a parallel development that could have been done without, but given the buyer's strike what option did the co'y have, other than take the risk with a minor player?] Now i get the potential 7z re-entry issues/risks (thx AK) vs 8new, but isn't this a case of repairing investor confidence in the reservoir form (model); i.e. showing that perched IS a parrot that can be knocked off, whereas an 8 well might even (am on last pair of clean pants, here, so hopefully no more 'failures' pls!) 'miss' the big fissures and/or their associated networks? A conundrum indeed........
Hur have still to demonstrate, via the eps, that the Lan reservoir holds the 500m, potential 1bn bbl Dr T reckons it does/might. So it might take another (groan) year (random hypothesis of time taken for sufficient stable results to be built to enable a buyer to purchase field/coy) from now to 'prove' Lancs (?) But what of The Big One, Hal?? There appears to be a good chance LanFax has between 1-2+ bn bbl with a good recoverability, if the PI's are truly indicative. What value Hur then...
Ah, the answer seems to be: 5.8 pps and falling, with pricing based on 6's eps income stream. wtf??? The Bod need to start earning their money. AK, like you, no matter what i'll make sure i retain a vote for next years agm, and hopefully will be able to attend, pox permitting, wherupon i'll make my feelings known - in no uncertain terms - to the bunch of underperforming freeloaders they seem to have been for the last 12 months. [No, i still haven't forgiven the rope fiasco......]
Has the current situation arisen because Dr Trice had made himself the only train-driver & stoker? Would love to see a full 'hearts opened' (not literally, of course) of the hur storyline thus far.
GLA
most will be aware of this - even the shorters, but for info......
t.email.hl.co.uk/r/?id=h1efaa00f,333eb2d7,3343ecf8&cid=halDM127223&bid=519741455&e_cti=4451026&e_ct=T&utm_source=AdobeCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EONRM_Daily%20Newsroom_Opt%20in_24.06.20&theSource=EONRM&Override=1
gla
Agree Dalts.
The Hur Board of Directors need to start EARNING their MONEY, something they have abjectly and totally failed to do over the last 12 months.
GLA
.......and the PI's of each well have been improving with clean-up.........it's only really 7z's close-to-heel water that's screwing Hur up. Is an L8 newbod's preferred lowest-cost route to proving the field? Doesn't this all depend on how long it would take to drain the larger 7z perch, vs the lost oil that the water throughput displaces? By now one would think a reasonable estimate of optimum 6-7z balance would be known, so it must be the 'instability' issue - presumably resulting from 7z's perch - that causes the problem. Letting 6 flow 16k+bbl/d, one suspects - given the pressure connectivity between the two - might import a proportion of 7z's 'issue' to 6. Interesting.
Think CaptainSwag has it - what about Hal? How the hell does Hur get fair value realised with no Hal proof?
Would like to be sitting in the corner of hur's virtual boardroom these days.
GLA
p.s. reported mathematics also; smug nasty person who thinks he can rule the roost 'cos he knows a formula or two? LOL. Like slugs, MM?
SSB; re LC: from memory (anyone please correct me if i am wrong here, but all this is 'in the notes' which anyone can read on the website), LinWar is a 50:50 field with Spirit (i.e. Centrica until Spirit is divested), who have had a 20% E&P budget reduction (down from £500m to £400m) marked for their remaining current year with mummy. As has been mentioned, Spirit are - to the best of available current knowledge - on contract to fund 50% of any ongoing LinWar development; should they continue the contract with Hur, they will become operator following 'acceptance'. Some of the long-lead subsea hardware (likely the expensive stuff) has already been ordered/procured, so with Spirit's uncertain involvement/future those bits of gear were being tentatively earmarked for Hur to use elswhere in the interim; L8 for example.
Dr T has commented, i believe, that LC's 42/3 api flow, - although very good - was irregular (or some similar description); dunno why but as the api is approaching condensate territory, perhaps this was due to localised phase-changes in the reservoir and/or the flow hardware. [ADUK would tell you, if he were here - maybe some of the other oilies here might offer a more knowledgable opinion. ]
The subject of why exactly LC wasn't going to/may still happen, is muddy (to me, at least): The uncertainties here and relatively poor information delivery to market have hammered confidence and thus the sp.
So now hurholders await the new bod's strategy review. And Spirit's - LC must be an ongoing hot-spud (sorry) in both boredrooms. However, after being unnecessarily Rc before, the OGA seem to have relieved some of the immediate capex pressures, so there's hope yet.
GLA
Ghengis is right, at $40bbl-1, once BP's fee is subtracted and other discounts, there's not a lot of cash swilling over the decks. Hur need to be careful with expenditure and hopefully have some 'RFT' in the ops/drilling news.
gla
Hi LW; seems it's 'back in the freezer' time for some of us.....
Re your 22:12 yest eve; generally agree, but as a business, declaring one's hand up-front is rarely a good move - especially when what you're declaring is 'We want your (i.e. someone else's) money'. Hur's startegy could (and imo should) have been simply to 'pursue the best investor return path towards reservoir proof and subsequent monetization'. Leave the doors open. There's been a feeling amongst many investors that Dr T wanted to use his trainset for slightly more than that - prooving his theories re WoS FB and then moving-on to repeat elsewhere ( the latter now being very unlikely to secure backing, one might suggest). Now, we don't have a clear strategy - but i'm sure newbod will declare it soon.
The big Q i still have is: 'how will Halifax be monetized?'
Is Hal contiguous with Lan? Is Hal as good a reservoir to Lan ?
The fracture system 'clean-up' hinted-at by recent updates is a favourable indicator for the Lancaster end - 500m bbl seems to be worth a few bucks to me (noting the sterling-usd ex rate is improving a bit - a tiny bit of good news for for Hur - might pay some of those expensive directors wages!) And 6 will likely (all imo but wtfdik) be pushing 14k then 16k in 6 weeks time before esp's 'help' the flow a bit), so with poo ~>$40, approaching $10/bbl profit to Hur, cash balance should improve a bit before the CB roll (i'd try to roll; with BoE talking negative interest rates.......). But enough to fund an L8 well? Isn't the (Dr T's?) best plan to PROVE the reservoir? Is it 500mbbl, or LanFax 1bn+ bbl recoverable? Without the field proving-programme, how does it get valued ('fair')?
This is where little things (e.g. rope vs time) get to be important : those lost 3 months have probably cost Hur an L8 well drill. (I'll take it on AduK's knowledge that a 7z fix isn't a good idea...!) For a rope/systems procedure, ffs. Not to mention reservoir-prooving, which would be 3 months further-on that it is now. (SXX had a similar company-ending gaffe - except theirs was that the engineer underestimated the tunnel build and it cost/lost the company, imo). A little fox-up in the Amazon can cause a storm WoS. Shame about the trainset.
I await longingly (sorry) the next op and future plan update. atb
GLA
'tone' 's an in-phrase (politically) these days, bartlebobton - what did you make of the change of Vigo's?
gla
jeez LW, my sympathies - even i'm feeling like an old-timer these days!
I'm still in, but the great promise of Hur has dulled somewhat, mostly due to mixed fortunes rather than 'bad' management, imo.
I still think Hur's biggst gaffe was in publicly announcing their monetization strategy from the go - 'prove-up then flog': this opened the door to a buyer's strike and subsequent bluff-call by the super/majors. The next ops briefing will be interesting.
GLA
sorry to see you go, AK. It's all abbit vague atm how Hur intends to monetise its acreage, but it seems (always has since paying for what are now very expensive shares (!)) that Halifax was the likely jewel in Hur's crown. I now see no apparent (or, at least, yet stated) path to hal's reservoir upgraded in probability. Doubtless we'll see an op update in a month or so, together with a reviewed drill plan. Will much get done this year? I wonder.......... best wishes to you - and your voting right!
gla
Daltry; i'd think AK will splurt his coffee when he sees the rns (i did). Whilst not entirely surprised at the event; the timing is, imo, poor: Hur is in a phase of bounding/defining its licenced reservoir volumes; Lanfax being potentially the most significant, i don't now see a pathway to proving the Halifax end - and thus the contiguous reservoir as a unit. A Lan8, Hal or, worst-case imo, 7z 'fix' would have been a well-worthwhile 'gamble'. This move, taken in the typical mode of UK investment strategy (i.e. short-term) limits Hur's potential value realision, imo.
GLA
AK; just read-through your and cocopops discussion; v interesting and your 23:38 yesterday eve questions are a very astute and pertinent trio that would be nice to see formally answered by the company. To my mind Hur have been consistently poor in comms quality, and this has damaged their credibility, with some reflection in mcap/sp and short volume. I'm not an oiler but can now often 'sense' less-than ideal systems - and since ropegate have had a lot of that here. However, I think the evidence thus far is that Dr Trice is very largely correct in proving his wos fb reservoir concept, and provided the co'y can endure the current crop of downturns, will be worth a tidy sum. Appreciate your tech insight, shame about the current crop of choo-choo trader-trash we're seeing.......
gla
AK; haven't been looking at the lseHur so much recently, as there seems to be a lot of trader chaff here now. Saw your comment ref someone with a rockhopper agenda; imo those fields may never be developed unless a proper working relationship with Argentine is reached - and with poo quite probably remaining $60 +/- 15/bbl for the forseeable due to medium-term oversupply, i don't see the business-case being favourable for a site equivalent (whether-wise) to WoS.
all imo.
Let's hope Hur have a good programme revision arising from the agm today.
gla
Agree 100% with your 08:47 post sentiments, Bartlebobton. (5min lookup would reveal Dr T's shareholding stake in the co'y, but from memory I don't think it is significant). The remainder of the bod are trivial holders. The agm would do well to refuse the recommendendations of the bod remuneration pack, paying them solely in shares, imo. Might 'focus the mind' a bit.
gla
good spot, Wulbert. wtf is going-on these days?
GLA
the VSD's (electrical power supply, (i.e. pump speed/rate) management systems are apparently the bit that has not been commissioned - this is on the ship topsides.
gla
ADUK even, apologies.
Colonel Drake: UDUK has previously commented on 'interference', and it should be remembered that the 'perched water' mechanisms (bucket, inverted bucket) are in-play: this latter may well (sorry) have significant implications due to the differing vapour pressures of reservoir oil vs local perched water: it's no surprise there is some 'instability' in 7z flow, and it's also no surprise that, if pressure connectivity is 'excellent', that mass-flow connectivity also exists; i.e. it's not unreasonable to expect 6 to see some of 7z's water in addition to that of it's own 'perches' Think of the upside-down glass full of water then inverted and lifted out the sink (used to teach the kids with this)....eventually the vaccuum is not supported. The vapour pressures of oil differ somewhat, especially as the fluid density reduces, e.g. 38 api (6/7z) vs 'heavy' vs condensate vs LincolnC (42?api). Also, don't forget the viscosity of the two fluids is wildly different.....
but, wtfdik!
GLA, even you bartlebobton, but i think Goldenbadger has a more contructive comment: Dr Trice has one more shot; they'd better not screw it up. I'm amazed a 'hostile' hasn't come in yet.
AK; I think you've got it in one there - and to be fair, Hur have been hinting at an issue that needed 'further understanding' re the instability/pressure cross-talk 'issue'; the discussion re re-entering 7z and moving the productive zone away from its heel was clue to that. I'll guess this is what they'll do, as it involves less capex. The small but increasing water-cut of 6 has been intriguing me, also, and i wonder if there's a relationship here. imo you analogy of instability caused by the perched water drawdown is likely to be spot-on - a roof-perch or combo basin-roof system would certainly have a dramatic effect in this way.
For sure Hur now has it's work schedule defined - either 7z or (8) need sorting while poo is in the sh*t, so the timing may even be slightly fortuitous - except for the sp, obs.
Ahh; just read your 12:04 follow-up: - agree entirely, esp comment re relativel small rates of water from 7z's perch possibly reaching 6.
Enjoy life while we can.
GLA