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Captain; imo your comments are pretty well on. Italy has provided a lesson for the UK, to our advantage. Where little England may come unstuck, however, is in two areas: (i) ' stoicism'. Keep calm and carry-on; serves us well (especially when the bullets are flying - though I doubt anyone actually in the Western Front trenches ever thought that); i.e. just spread the virus around without giving a cufk. (ii) the population density of England, especially the south. (i) + (ii) = bad. Witness: Cheltenham horsey brigade.
Oil will still be in use this time in '21 and for the fifteen or so years following, but with avg poo nearer $55-60. Hur just needs to bin the explorer *******s and monetize Lanfax.
Gla
Jiffy; the OGA will need to have a serious re-appraisal of their field management strategy, possibly reviewing and modifying many recent decisions - at least wrt their implementation timeframes. LinC will get an extension - if it doesn't, the oga needs binning.
gla
'essential' not residential!
Ffs, sorry.
Gla
Ghengis, agree with your comments re care with capex and Hur survival. Chop all non-residential, maybe let gwa go if necessary. Here we arrive at national strategy: if the oga do not relax their current attitude to 'dev realisation' they'll bust the UK's energy asset and be responsible for a major national fox- up. I doubt the oga are dimwits so hopefully they'll drop/relax many of the onerous timescales currently imposed.
For Hur, we are in a new paradigm nneed if Low; cash preservation and CB repayment, any extra drilling, esp on gwa, can wait or be binned: the only extra hole we need is L8 - provided cashflow makes it affordable....
Gla
I wonder if bP will buy another $10bn-worth of US shale then? Those boys sure know good strategy whenthey see it......
gla
also, LtCapt, the OGA will be forced to rework it's management of Uk fields/wells; i.e. 'cut some slack'.
Bad for US shale in imediate term, though. Will this backfire on Putin, i wonder?
gla
AK, AS: think i'll filter the banker too, but generally i just report its posts.
PA anchored, next week a bit pumpy sea-state-wise....
gla
or the nuts, adouble.
!
gla
Diego - agree with sentiments re sp and cmd making little difference. imo the sp won't appreciate significantly until further productive well(s) are confirmed on Lancaster.
And Halifax.
gla
Hi AK; yes the 'big fpso' IS a bit of fantasy-land thinking,but in my case its 'wishful'. There are a few factors here:
(i) O.k; most realists accept that oil has a substantial part to play in the worlds economies for 10-30 years. But climate activism is rapidly making it difficult/impossible for many major insti's to invest in carbon fuels. This is, and will continue to, accelerate in effect. Where is the 'big money' going to come from, following the less-than-ideal dents in Hur's philosophy arising from GWA results last year?
(ii) Known existance of a 'plan B' several years ago would, imo, have put Hur in a much better bargaining position than it is now. imo again, that omission was a major strategic fox-up, and has opened the door to 'distressed co'y' status, which the sp is now indicating.
(iii) Fixed-vs-fpso: the issue here is likely to be the availability of Capex cash (item (i)) vs return period. Imo, this is shifting quickly away from a $5bn+ up-front-er to fastest possible incremental; i.e; fpso's.
(iv) I'd have thought a boat of multiples of the displacement of the AM would probably cope with WoS (?) And one is available, if a funding route can be found.....
(v) My prediction is that Hur will hatch HurProCo soon, and the latter will become a divi provider to those brave enough to invest (similar to BATS etc)
This is no time to f***-around with ego's and trainsets, last year's performance then AS's departure means Hur needs to get a grip. imo.
atb
GLA
MCB: 'post of hur's existance', imo. Spot-on.
One of those (four) topsides-modular super-fspo's being built somewhere is 'unallocated', i read a few days ago: 200,000bopd. Funding was being discussed at base + about 1% if i recall correctly. If only there were a way to get hold of that boat, Hur would be flying.
gla
WIthout any of us knowing the nitty-gritty of the AS tunure clsure, I for one am pleased to see him gone. The warrants thing (wot, a cashflow hash-up - really??!) and a cfo with less skin in the company than most PI's on this bb, is not a person i've happily trusted with my money.
Also agree that i'd like to see the hurricomms dept availed of a similar shake-up.
Nice to see the recent offload, i imagine the AM must've had it's legs crossed. A comms release regarding the size would be expedient - even if it isn't co'y standard policy.
gla
thx DC, missed that patch.
gla
yes,it was those two subliminal lines that really cheesed me off, too.......
gla
oh, stop it police. pi sussed -off.
apologiesto allfor earlier typo's: honestly, juststicky juice in thekeyboard (spacebar is worst,annoyingly). If it had been just alcool t'would have been fine.
"...bi****ed..." = '...bit ****ed...', sorry.
Imminent NO load will be quite interesting; wonder if it will shut them up?
GLA
gla
apologies for typo's, someone spilt blackcurrant juice in my keyboard....(not water, blackcurrant juice....)
gla
I might be the ony one, but despite my respect for dspp's analysis on tlf, i'm beginning to get a bi ****ed-off with his doomongering over relatively unimportant issues - especially the conflation of individual 'concerns' and subsequent improbable outcomes. " ...if the wells aren't quite working perfectly..." - when do wells work 'perfectly' ffs?? Get a grip and stop implying Dr Trice is a liar, you tlf dudes.
gla
tomorrow/Wednesday and then the w/e coming look good. Maybe worth keeping an eye on the NO upping-sticks from Scapa in the next 16 hours.....
gla
apologies feelinlucky, been away from htis for a few days - I take it the NO has not yet offloaded from AM - prob shelering until Dennis passes...
gla