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Fantastic thread. So much clearly going on in the background. Exciting times ahead. Home use auth soon?!
https://twitter.com/boy_cellar/status/1413169175779057664
Personally think that with the papers saying that people will be charged for LFDs from August, that home use is a formality for Avacta with everything aligning. Nobody is going to buy an Innova test that only has EUA, expires end of Aug, uncomfortable to use and unreliable etc. Maybe thats why Gov are bringing in legislation so only the best tests hit the market, and Medusa will have a big role to play, hence the scale up!
It was sent during the England game, so who knows, he may have had a couple of pints of Guinness. But I can assure you it came from his email and is legit.
Its legit @infor25
Nice troll attempt MyLuck.
However testing is here to stay, just check out what the Gov have published!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/999419/COVID-19_Response_Summer_2021.pdf
Little hint, check page 9.
Education minister also speaking tomorrow detailing plans to change the isolation system to daily testing.
Now jog on
Highly doubt its Healgen given the wording of the papers. Healgen isn't a "new test" and is a nasopharyngeal test (brain tickler) so I would say that rules out the "easier to use". Also its a 15min test, and states "Do not interpret the result after 20 minutes.", so I would also say that rules out it being a 20min test.
https://www.primarycaresupplies.co.uk/healgen-lateral-flow-covid-19-antigen-testing-kit-box-of-20/
Fits in perfectly with what several papers were leaked with over the weekend regarding trials are being run in about 200 schools and colleges across England, half of which will follow the new guidance, while the others follow the current rules of quarantining.
Then them saying about a "new 20min test", and "a much more accurate test" and "easier to use". Wonder what company fits that exact wording..?!
Innova EUA extension expires in Aug. Certainly looks like that loaned Gov machinery will be made use of and ramped up particularly with a potentially bad winter on the cards. Will need to identify the difference between flu, covid etc
No wonder why Al keeps saying that affimers are getting a lot of global attention right now. Imagine all the JV's that could happen "This work opens up the door for the hundreds of other disease targets. We could effectively probe any protein involved in any disease for druggable pockets in the future.”
But given they could be fully funded from the diagnostic side, they could go it alone on several disease targets!
I truly believe that Avacta will be one of the true great success stories of our lifetime and be life changing for most of us financially and in health. Be nice to get rid of the "just a covid stock" tag by many.
Worth remembering what Al previously said:
"Since the Affimer reagents we use in Avacta's range of SARS-CoV-2 tests do not bind in the region of the spike protein where the dominant mutations appear, we do not anticipate that the performance of the tests will be affected."
Delta has mutations in the spike.
The sell off is mainly due to people selling off as PHE havent been able to collect enough samples to verify, so creating uncertainty. However we know that this isn't an issue. If you believe in the Affimer platform, then this is a cracking buy price.
Also worth noting the profit margin quoted by Al was €1-2 for AVCT. So the upper limit is nearly in line with what the broker note said which was 30% of £7 so £2ish.
Why did Al say that in Euros? I'm still led to believe that the margin for the UK Gov will be higher than this. And given our capacity could be up to 60m PM, with a 3-5 year window, you start getting crazy numbers.
Put those big boy pants on, switch off for a week and come back
Wouldn't be surprised if the Gov told them not to release a story on it damaging their reputation and instead they'll give them the inside scoop regarding a new UK made test coming to the market that will be taking over Innova..
One can dream.
Recommendations for test users, health care providers and testing program organisers
Stop using the Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen rapid Qualitative Test.
Destroy the tests by placing them in the trash
Wow. Pressure is on MHRA now, near impossible for them to give an extension to Innova later this month. Pretty much have to give Avacta home use approval now.
Wording by the FDA suggests that Innova have copied and pasted data from other manufacturers who passed EUA in order for themselves to get it too. Multi billion £ fraud and expect serious consequences.
7 trading days until Avacta presentation... Would be a shambles if they had nothing to report on since the last one. Its all lining up nicely!
Key thing about the Euros at Wembley is 2 vaccinations are valid as entry, and also a LFD result in the previous 48 hours. PCR testing is not valid for entry. Another move away from PCR and towards LFD. All shall be revealed soon, particularly when Innova emergency approval expires later this month!
Very easily attainable.
2m tests a day = 60m a month. Add on a very basic 5m capacity which I think we're all expecting.. thats 65m.
So 65m tests a month = £5.46b revenue a year, and 30% margin would mean £1.638b profit.
Add a PE factor of 2 (2 years), thats £43.16 a share just based on 65m tests a month, thats excluding everything else that Avacta have going for them. The constant "not sale in USA" to me suggests that could be a white label in progress and we receive royalties in return for a large company making it on mass scale. Very easy to see how we can become a massive biotech company with relative ease.
Just look at Biogen today who have an Alzheimer's disease drug aducanumab which got approved. Added nearly 20 billion to their market cap today and now valued at 60 billion. We have potentially a game changing cancer treatment that would dwarf those gains.
Wonder how much they're paying Ray to deramp? Need to up his wage as his efforts are so poor!
In talks with 25 countries, effectively so much demand creates a highest bidder wins scenario. Just look at the pricing for a "good" test in USA, it's 30-50usd. And the good test comes nowhere near our excellent avct test!
Be careful what you wish for! We don't want covid tests seen negatively in the public eye just before our launch. The past is the past and nobody can change what the Gov awarded them unfortunately. We know theres an £8b contract sat there waiting with nobody being awarded that yet.. I'd like to think we can take the majority of it once we can fully scale up.
Paul is looking to do another article on Avacta very soon though. He PM'ed 2 weeks ago in a response to a tweet, where he was asking for any update to date info, so we should see something with us very soon. Would message him anything positive about it!
Funny thing is that Simon tried trolling AVCT holders by saying that Medusa are selling an Antigen test and that they will be selling from June..
Little did he know that the only antigen test Medusa are allowed to sell is the Avacta test. And he's just confirmed that Medusa will be selling the test from June.
When trolling and attempted deramps go wrong!
Additional point is that the cartridges need to be refrigerated for prolonged storage, so limits who can use it.
Could see it working somewhere in say a GP surgery but literally no competition to the LFD as you just said
Can anyone find out the CT values for the test? Been searching this morning and cant find anything. Effectively can make their results as good as they want without knowing that.
Regardless, I see it as very positive, more companies that can do this the better as it proves that covid testing is the way forward instead of say vaccine passports. The demand is so large out there, effectively unlimited so just comes down to supply issues as we already know. Could mean years and years of recurring revenue.
HorridMan, thanks for the link.
Interestingly the video at the bottom of that page shows a production line. Looks like it would be very easy for them to mass produce our antigen test. After all they are experts in what they do.
Considering that was for the Medusa antibody test back in Sept, we have to assume they've managed to scale up dramatically since then, particularly given they said they can produce 50-100m a month.
Medusa are really a dark horse here and could take us all by surprise.
Also expecting CE mark tomorrow given we'd have gone past the 72 hours for the fast track which is reviewed in 36-72 hours.
lolarch:
https://www.hra.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/fast-track-review-guidance-covid-19-studies/
Reviewed within 36 - 72 hours of submission
A study of a vaccine, treatment or diagnostic for COVID-19
Scardey_cat - afraid not!
MRHA covid fast track review is between 36-72 hours, so literally could land at any point as we're nearly at 48 hours already.