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Amusing thing is that several ODX holders want any test but Avacta test to be produced. Yet the Avacta test has been quoted as mid range GBP price point and our broker note stated £7 per test with 35% going to us, so £2.50.
Mologic work with the Gates Foundation in order to provide tests as cheap as possible and help lower income countries.
Ultimately ODX benefit more if they produce the Avacta test as everything suggests the margins on our test will be higher than what it might be for Mologic. Yet they still want Mologic over us - crazy world we live in.
Out tomorrow.
This was said yesterday:
"Apologies ladies & gents.
CEO Alastair Smith is an incredibly busy man. So today's planned
@avacta
'3rd party royalty' interview has had to be pushed back by 24 hours to Tuesday.
Video though should be out 1st thing Wednesday morning."
A coronavirus variant that emerged in mid-2020 and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors, but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-02-23/california-homegrown-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-transmissible-and-dangerous?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true
Clear that vaccinations arent the way out for Boris, just takes one mutation that evades it and they're back to square 1. Testing is here to stay
Couple of big things tonight stood out for me.
Cheeky slip in of a NASDAQ listing... Looks like Orph could very well dual list at some point!
Also he has asked the NOMAD for permission to buy more shares in Orph. Extremely bullish sign of whats to come, given how much money hes already pumped in.
Make sure its the DMA you look for Mikelma10.
Currently nothing available at 32p... CFEP ask is 32.9 now. JBER & CFEP pushing us up at 31.6 with lots of stock. Invesco clearly not selling much at these levels as both the culprits have moved to the bid pushing the demand. Seems like a big buyer wants stock
IG L2. Was using standard L2 for months but made the switch and its much better to see the real bids/ask with how much volume they have
Real bid is CFEP at 30.9, JBER 31.05, with loads of stock. Theyre pushing us up, clear theres either a big buyer or just so much demand here. CFEP was on the ask at 31p for the entire day yesterday and safe to say we took a huge chunk out of whatever Invesco wanted to sell at that price. They've shifted sides now anyway. Looking good for an afternoon push.
What do they say, the best stocks start attracting the paid derampers in order to help get cheaper entry. I think they must be paying this guy Heffernan in the pennies which reflects in the quality of his posts
Head of the UK Consortium has just confirmed Avacta and Mologic are in the consortium! Further confirmation that Avacta are centre of this UK Sovereign test!
Great posts as always Trader_3.
In regards to the link you posted on "Global vaccination strategies: similarities, differences and lessons"
It states "Duration (Approved by regulators and the ethics committee)
Jan-May 2021.
Further confirmation that approval has been given?
They're the ex Cantor guys. They've been appearing on the stocks that have some serious upside potential, so I'm seeing it as a great sign
Thanks, any thoughts on PrepBio being used with Codagenix? Find it interesting that Flu-v and Ags-v are listed in Conserv but Prep isn't.
Also some wording on previous articles state we're in a partnership with Codagenix.. Cathal loves talking about them too.. Just wondering if something much bigger is at play here, but won't know until later down the line providing it passes through the trials.
Nice 1m followers for Yahoo Finance. Great bit of publicity that! Should help pop on the radar for new investors.
Now we can help, lets keep the board positive, and we all can play our part with getting some volume in and lifting this share price!
Vox.. So the big client paid for the facility, they'll be using it for only 15-20% of this year, leaves the remaining of the time free. So lets say thats 8 months worth, 1 contract a month so 8 contracts, av contract price now is £4.5-5m? So £36-40m a year. Add on that we have this for 3 years, that could mean £120m in revenue for the books.
That in itself should be adding 5-15p to the share price.
The market will eventually wake up, bloody frustrating right now though.
No doubt the big man tonight will have some golden nuggets for us. Fully expecting a further RNS soon as well.
Broker forecast remains the same for this latest update.
Every other company im invested in which have different brokers have considerable upside for their target prices which include the potential ranging from 3-5x the current share price. FinnCap on the other hand won't budge from 28p which was based on 1 facility as stated previously! !@£$%^& sack them off!!!
They are literally causing this share price to stagnate. We don't appear on many peoples radar to attract new investors because the target price has only taken into account 1 facility and excludes everything else we have, its a disgrace!
Cathal himself is once again doing a great job, securing an additional facility to be converted to the highest quarantine standards paid for by a client, so no costs to us. Plenty more news to come, but we all need to get this message across to Cathal and to FinnCap themselves that FinnCaps price targets are causing a massive drag on our share price, either start including all our assets or its time for a new broker.
Cathal Friel, Exexcutive Chairman of Open Orphan plc told *************,
“This RNS is fantastic news for Open Orphan because we have now, in a very low-cost manner, almost doubled our quarantine bedroom capacity that we hold in our QMB East London facility. We have taken a short-term lease on the former boutique Whitechapel Hotel, the cost of conversion for this new clinic was paid by an existing Open Orphan challenge study client. This client wanted to start their study earlier than the current backlog would have allowed, given that the QMB facility is booked out until the end of 2021. Thus, the cost of converting the hotel into a quarantine unit and also the first year’s lease costs have been funded by this client, therefore there was no net cost to Open Orphan regarding same.
This allows us to facilitate additional studies through this new Whitechapel Clinic and allows us to substantially increase our capacity going forward to service the increasing appetite of pharma companies to run challenge studies on a whole range of disease indications.
Additionally and very importantly, these new 19 quarantine beds which are in addition to our existing 24 beds at QMB are fully repurposed to the highest quarantine standards and are perfect for our challenge study work. With the new Whitechapel Clinic being fifty feet across the road from QMB, it means that we can also use our existing laboratory and admin facilities that are housed inside our QMB clinic. “
"We first made contact with Daewoong at JP Morgan at Healthcare week in 2019. Just returned from JP Morgan this year and had 30 meetings over 3 days and have to say it was the most productive JP Morgan we've ever had. I'm very excited about the opportunities created and look forward to updating the market at the appropriate time."
https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-provides-update-on-affyxell-collaboration-and-licence-agreement/
£10 is expensive when you compare it to what the UK Gov want via their tender process. They gave 0 points for any test that was above £6, and 90 points for a test of £2 or below. They want a cheap easy test which is definitely under £5 for mass rollout.
But £10 is cheap when you compare it to what else is on the market and how long it takes to get results. This sens/spec is really incredible and more so that its saliva. Im absolutely convinced that we'll hear something soon from the Gov regarding a mass rollout of lateral flow tests as they have a sovereign antigen consortium that is aiming to produce 2m tests a day by April.
Lets assume that these tests will be used for schools, any hotspots in order to drive down infection rates.
The Gov made clear that they see testing twice a week as key to beating this.
That leaves us with a rather large goal for the workplace. Lets go on the same assumption of 2 tests a week (could be more if a private company, think you get tested every time you enter the office). Its cheap enough that companies will want to buy it in bulk when you compare it to the cost of having them on sick days instead. Plug in any number you want and margins really start adding up given how many they could do a day given the quick turnaround.
Just a reminder what Orph could deliver in the coming year. Patience is simply required here.
1 - Imutex (universal flu and mosquito vaccine) close to being monetised (ConservBio?)
1b - Prep with expected utility vs covid - also needs monetising but not listed with Conserv so clearly other plans
1c - Immune modulator 100% owned - Website seems to have been updated with a few more points.
2 - C19 work (needs approval but gearing up for it with staff recruitment, actively screening 500+ a week)
3 - Unlocks potentially 100m+ in rev for C19 given 10m per pharma and we know were in talks with a dozen. I count 55 between preclinical and late stages, so will be plenty of recurring work in the years ahead / upgrading current ones.
4 - Wearables deals - would boost the price along knowing its a divi paying share. Different deals imo for depending what they want data on, Covid, RSV etc for a range of products.
5 - Wildfire creating new models paid for by pharma companies, win win
6 - China deal potential? Potential to copy our model for £££ quoted as "a very large sum of money"
7 - 3rd facility, 4th? Room to grow even more?
8 - Genomic Database to be sold onto pharma companies through subscriptions (quoted as could be worth so much as could be its own company)
9 - Small but recurring rev from Quotient antibody tests - Can use these for screening for antibodies for challenge studies
10 - Now look to have expanded for antigen testing. Massive market. Previously aimed for likes of JP Morgan (16k UK employees), CitiBank (9k UK), Tesco (450k) etc. Needs a healthcare professional hence we already have this all in place from Quotient. Big margins.
11 - Venn expanding and contracts from top pharmas in the world, change payment structure to big deals over several years now
12 - Booked out for this year (believe many undisclosed contracts so far to be announced once further models are done)
13- Turned profitable which will show in financials later this year - brings in a whole new wave of investors in
14 - Bought out eventually.
Actually think Orph should really look to become a data company on the back of their challenge studies. Data is worth an insane amount of money, we're literally in the right place at the right time.
Yes I agree Longlad. Antigen testing has always been the key to get the economy back running and our lives back to normal alongside vaccinations. Im heavily invested in Avacta for this reason (thanks to the member who first pointed them out in here last year, can't remember your name!) and I'm shocked to see a company come out of nowhere like this with such a high send/spec with it being saliva. Really is incredible when you consider most of the major companies gave up on saliva because they couldn't get it to work.
But anyway the testing landscape is here for at least another 2 years and some leading people have said it could be here to stay for many more years. With frequent workplace testing, airport testing and testing on arrival which helps stop mutations which could evade vaccines etc.
What is very clear that Orph will be targeting Corporations here rather than going for cheap mass testing. So this effectively uses our current network from Quotient testing as we have the healthcare professionals and distributing network that they need. Quotients antibody tests will be used currently to screen for antibodies in those who are volunteering for FluCamp so that's 500+ a week in massive cost saving to us too. Win win all round really.
Good article in the Mail here that fits in for what we'll be doing
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9205475/How-rapid-Covid-19-tests-work-reboot-economy.html