Member Info for spike501

More or less, yes.

"Do I have this totally wrong ?

Yes - Bondholders are going to own 95% of the enlarged number of shares

"Despite the details of the reconstruction being much worse than expected 63m shares were purchased yesterday.Obviously many punters still feel there is value here at this price"

Shorts closing and mugs and gamblers.

"THAT is a very good question. IF there should be a new attempt at raising equity (ie 'dilution'), have you ever seen a share-offer of such a sort priced at LESS than the ongoing SP, whatever it may be ? I certainly can't think of one. Correct me if I'm wrong."

Just about every new attempt at raising equity from listed companies is done at some sort of discount to the ongoing share price and when it is a forced debt for equity swap its always done at a massive discount - there are dozens of examples, Gulf Keystone, Premier Oil etc, etc, where the level of the dilution depends upon the prospects of the company once the debt is restructured.

There is virtually no prospect of recovery here, hence the level of dilution - the only reason the bondholders are allowing the existing equity holders to remain is that they want to keep the liquidity of the shares to allow them to dump them and take take an exit for them.

"So, with those unrecoverable losses, do you duck out now with small, very small scraps, or see what materialises?"

Sell now and purchase lottery tickets with whats left - its likely better odds of a return than holding, especially while the SP is 1p, which is still overvalued by a large multiple.

Gold has been moving up as well having bottomed at 1680 - 1788 looks next resistance point and if it breaks that it could re-test 1850.

I really hope we do get a good production report to maintain the momentum.

Also the construction works for the additional storage should also be starting soon, which should then ensure more stable production going forward.

"To me, the question is simply, if the bondholders do not want to risk a further work program because if it fails they will lose their investment, what will be left for shareholders after the bondholders and overheads are covered should no further work take place, whats that per share and then allow the shareholders to vote for either the amount that is left to be paid in them in the form of a dividend or to dilution and a further work program in the hope that brings a bigger return."

If no further work is done, its almost certain there is not enough to fully repay the bondholders and shareholders will have nothing..

There is no possibility of a dividend, there are no distributable reserves in the company.

"PI's should do a "Bowleven", sack the board stop all expenses apart from essential and pay a dividend out of the fund not set aside for Bondholders."

You need distributable reserves to pay dividends.

"Even if we don’t repay all the bonds , I am sure the company assets will worth between 5-10 p worst case scenario, right? There is oil maybe somebody will want it if we are lucky?"

If the bonds aren't repaid, the equity is worthless.

"If that is not obvious from the effortless RNS of today, then doing absolutely nothing this year, and planning absolutely nothing for next year"

How can they plan, when they don't have money? At the moment they are totally dependent on what the bondholders want to consent to. In some ways the oil price rise might actually be a bad thing for shareholders as it makes the bondholders more likely to sit and watch as they have a better chance of recovery, at lower oil prices it might have been worth rolling the dice, taking an equity conversion and doing something high impact.

I can't imagine the material stake the talk about is much more than £500k - this is an interesting diversification and an opportunity for some immediate cashflow when they sit on excess cash, but they have a busy work programme for this year and shouldn't be burning through lots of the cash they have raised to fulfill that.

There won't be the options of RBLs on royalty interests as there are no reserves attached, they can ultimately be fairly risky instruments hence the good yields they pay.

Yep 2.5% has been purchased, the RNS is quite clear on that point. The presentation does show that the 20% is owned by various parties, whether any further is owned by CPRL is not clear at this point

You can have a look at the financials for CPRL here.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/03537374/filing-history

GKB47 - the royalties are owned by multiple parties, it is stated in the presentation in the the website, so that $24k must be the 2.5% share only and that is only from the second half of the year as CPRL show zero revenue to June-20, either due to low oil price, or they themselves only acquired it after June 2020.

Indeed Mirasol, or that the earth doesn't open up and the rig falls into jaws of hell. That could also be a bit of a setback.

So West Newton B-1 well test does seem to be imminent - Bramhill confirmed he knows the dates and that the Reabold presentation would be pretty accurate. The Reabold presentation shows the B-1 well test as running end of Q1 until early Q2.

The company needs some positive promote and that can only be done on the back of reasonable newsflow from the company which has been improving in recent months - probably as they finally have something to talk about.

Hopefully Q1 production can maintain Q4 levels which should push the SP up further, subject to gold holding at current levels, or hopefully moving back up.

What a load of nonsense, the RNS states in plain English that they are still discussing recapitalisation.

"Discussions on the Company's forward work programme, strategy, financing and balance sheet recapitalisation are ongoing."

Don't agree that its about Teren Sai, forget NPV calcs of undeveloped assets as an sort of read across to share price, there is always a wide cap due to the capital required and risks involved of getting to production.

Altyn is a producer and share price value is going to be driven by production results - they need to prove Sekisovskoye can be produced in a way that the CPRs suggest it can - ensure they can mine and mill consistently and get the grades up towards CPR levels. Any production coming from Teren Sai will really be a bonus is they can execute on Sekisovskoye.

Yep agree, these sorts of spikes and volatility really don't help the investment case, I'm still bullish on silver in the medium term due to actions of governments and central banks as well as industrial use in the drive for renewables and EVs, however I'd rather a slow steady build, volatility scares investors off.

A lot of links poster today in articles and videos about silver price manipulation and the likes - this stuff has been around for ever, its nothing new today and its still only opinion stuff. The silver markets are not easy to move like Gamestop was, even if people try, which now seems like it was erroneous anyway.

Silver pulling back, that was entertaining while it lasted.