Hope you are staying cool😨12 Jul 2025 19:07
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Oil prices are set to end the week higher after geopolitical risk climbed and Trump delayed tariff announcements.
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Friday, July 11th, 2025
Oil prices are set for a marginal weekly gain after the commodity markets’ worst-case scenario – US President Trump announcing tariffs on most of the world – was temporarily averted, with the White House postponing the decision-making deadline to August. Meanwhile, the return of the ‘Houthi missile factor’ adds to oil’s geopolitical risk premium and helped to keep ICE Brent around $70 per barrel, with further upside coming from Trump’s flaunted ‘major’ Russia announcement this upcoming Monday.
OPEC Cuts Short-Term Growth, Boosts the Future. In its 2025 World Oil Outlook, OPEC boosted its global demand outlook as the oil group expects consumption to reach 122.9 million b/d by 2050, adding more than 19 million b/d over the next 25 years, banking on Indian, African and Middle Eastern growth.
UAE Flexes Production Capacity Muscle. Speaking at OPEC’s summer seminar in Vienna, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said that the Middle Eastern country could be producing 6 million b/d of crude by 2027 if required, almost double its current levels as OPEC+ unwinds its voluntary cuts.
Europe’s Diesel Woes Turn Even Worse. The July pricing spread between diesel prices in Asia and Europe widened further to a whopping $120 per metric tonne, the widest since October 2022, as the UK’s bankrupt Lindsey refinery forced Northwest European refiners to pay up for spot available cargoes.
EU Pitches Idea of Floating Russia Cap. After the EU’s initial suggestion to lower Russia’s oil price cap from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel failed to garner the support of US President Trump, the European Commission now proposed having a floating Russian oil price cap, adjusted depending on global prices.
Tariffs Set Up Coffee for a Megarally. The Trump administration’s planned 50% tariff on Brazilian goods (despite having a $7.4 billion trade surplus) would most probably trigger a steep rally in US coffee prices, currently trading at $2.84 per futures contract, as Brazil currently accounts for 35% of US imports.
Puerto Rico LNG Deals Are Hard to Get. US LNG developer New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) has been on a rollercoaster ride lately after its 15-year term LNG deal to supply Puerto Rico initially lifted its stock, only to collapse after the island’s regulatory watchdog halted the deal over monopoly concerns.
Houthis Send Tanker Insurance Soaring. The insurance costs of shipping goods through the Red Sea has more than doubled since the beginning of this week, as Houthi attacks sunk two Greek-owned bulkers, with war risk premiums now assessed at 0.7% of the value of the ship, up from 0.3% a week ago.
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