Update14 Nov 2025 17:03
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The key Russian oil port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea suspended oil exports on Friday, following a major Ukrainian attack on the port overnight.
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Friday, November 14, 2025
The Russia-Ukraine war rages on, with Ukraine’s drone attacks temporarily halting oil loadings in Russia’s largest Black Sea port, however, even such a high-impact event was only able to recoup the past days’ losses and reset ICE Brent at $64 per barrel. Oil bulls’ sentiment was dampened by this week’s monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC, particularly with the latter jumping on the 2026 oversupply bandwagon after months of predicting a supply deficit.
IEA Worsens 2026 Oversupply Outlook. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 outlook by lifting supply growth to 2.5 million b/d and curbing demand growth to just 770,000 b/d, now expecting a whopping 4.1 million b/d surplus next year, equivalent to 4% of global crude demand.
Ukraine Drone Strikes Halt Black Sea Loadings. Russia’s largest Black Sea port of Novorossiysk temporarily suspended oil exports after an overnight drone attack by Ukraine that hit an oil depot and a docked ship, restricting some 2.2 million b/d of supply as the CPC terminal stopped loading, too.
Lukoil Assets Have a New Potential Buyer. US private equity firm Carlyle is reportedly considering buying the foreign assets of Russian oil major Lukoil (MCOX:LKOH), worth some $22 billion, planning to apply for a license from the Trump administration to buy the assets before beginning due diligence.
Colombia Announces Retreat from US Shale. Colombia's government is moving ahead with its plan to sell assets owned by the state oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) in the US Permian Basin, just as the joint venture with Occidental Petroleum ramped up production to 116,000 boe/d, as of Q2 2025.
Greenland to Drill Its First Well in 2026. Greenland, focused upstream firm Greenland Energy will drill its first exploration well in the country, OPW-1, in the summer of 2026, marking the first appraisal of the Jameson Land Basin, believed to be an untapped multi-billion-barrel play.
Kurdish Crude Gets Stranded Off Egypt. A month pipeline flows were restarted in the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan started flowing to markets again, two laden tankers have been idle off the Egyptian coast for two weeks, signalling potential demand issues.
US Concludes Trump’s First SPR Purchase. The Trump administration has finalized its first purchase of crude for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, buying 900,000 barrels of sour crude from global trading giant Trafigura and US midstream firm Energy Transfer at an average price of $62 per bar
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