Member Info for SpecialValue

A number of reasons.

HICL have continued to keep the portfolio fresh and balanced between growth and cash producing assets, while disposing of assets at or above NAV. The largest holding, Affinity water, has not been paying a dividend which will resume this year meaning dividend cover of 1.1 should be exceeded and dividend growth will resume. The portfolio has good inflation correlation and a 7.1% yield with a IRR targeted around 10%.

The external risk of course is a significanr upward shock to bond yeilds. In a benign environment with slightly sticky inflation and interest rates dropping, or a bigger slowdown this fund and INPP look good places to park money as people diversify away from the US/Mag 7 etc. Buy what's out of fashion is the play.

Hope the UK time in the sun has further to run as money flows away from overpriced markets, it's been out fashion so long now and there's a lot capital in hot areas that's flowing nicely. Another 20% upside bar a calamity? JUGI also looks great value, with a steep discount that could add extra returns.

It’s a nice yield with good reason to be optimistic the discount will narrow.

I to hold both, with a larger weighting on inpp but also a hope that HICL starts to narrow its nav discount once the trig debacle passes and the affinity dividends start flowing. If the bond market continues to see yields soften while inflation remains a bit higher, both these two should do well?

Aside from these two I’m moved most my portfolio into UK equities, Japanese equities and my biggest holding being Ruffer (rica). When the wheels fall off the bus the latter is great. We are due a correction but as always it could be a year or two off. Who knows in this mad geopolitical world.

Appreciated reading the posts below. Useful thoughts.

Fund looking well positioned should a sizable correction take place, and conservatively position to make money should it not. Always a great hold at times like this so no surprises the nav discount in tightening. Soon to be a premium possibly if the market apathy departs. Historically high P/Ea and all the usual cries of its different this time. It never has been different in the past mind you…..

Hi Blackfriar,

Water is a political hot potato, however a few point...

HICL is 19% on water and electricity sector, not just affinity. It is their biggest holding. Worth reading the Affinity plans if you have half a day, but most importantly they are returning to dividends and as you know regulation is changing for the positive. If anything it's time to be contrarian?

Affinity is not involved in sewage, and is a perpetual asset for HICL. It's a well run business. Couple other points:

HICL has a 33.2% holding in Affinity which is a perpetual business with an indefinite asset life.

1 The Affinity Water supply area is in one of the driest parts of the UK, receiving 33% less rainfall than average for the period from July 2016 to April 2017

2 Population forecast to increase by 23% by 2045

Https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ex-date.asp

There you go, always used to confuse me

Let's not forget that Arrowstreet, Caxton and Maverick all have short positions..... and promise their clients Alpha! Who will be first to blink?

But what people have not been buying and is undervalued…. UK small caps should see some money flow as interest rates soften

As interest rates soften and money flows out of hot areas, a closure of the NAV discount with a strengthening NAV and a 7% dividend….. patience will be rewarded for investors here I hope

Ofc that would be welcome, but nothing to suggest that. It’s a beaten up sector with a brightening horizon. The whole world is overweight mag 7, so my expectation is money will flow to undervalued solid dividend paying stocks like this one. Could that mean a bid, ofc, but I’d prefer organic growth, further disposals and a 20p above inflation dividend. 400p is my personal target. FSV have been adding I believe.

Charting always interesting but this ones a story of fundamentals and the benefits of restructuring coming through. its also a very beaten up sector. I would like to see a 4 before I think of selling, personally. A list retail sites are fetching stronger rents and occupancies, I think the incoming CEOs £500k purchase shows he's not just backing himself but also the sector's outlook. 4 year high kind of irrelevant due to restructuring of share capital. So from a charting perspective isn't the 20, 50 and 200 days moving averages a better story?

Just to add…. I do have some eyes on Cabot circus footfalls which are definitely strong this Christmas. New M&S opening and other investments. I have eyes on one other premium retail area (not hammerson owned) and several other B list high st. The premium one is again bucking the trend. Whether this is translating to sales is ofc another matter.

Looks like Friday was all about MM working a sizable trade through….. we’ve had a good run. If hmso footfalls continue to out grow the subdued UK high st and the demand for prime retail continues we could do nicely in 2026. Expecting a divi hike which could look more and more appealing against a backdrop on interest rate reductions

What’s not to love about this share

Thanks Humster, def not stressing just trying to get up to speed :-)

Thanks GeorgeH

Thanks Humster, yes I can see my shipping assumptions were a bit optimistic. Be interesting to see what comes with the interims, lets hope confirmation of the payment on the invoice.

Can anyone profer any insights in how long it takes to confirm final grades once the shipment is received? Just trying to piece together a likely chronology many thanks

Good morning. I bought a smallish position as a bit of a punt. Am I right in assuming we are likely to receive an update when shipment reaches China this week and also we will receive unaudited accounts and interim update likely this week or next? aside from receiving the initial payment we will also receive notification of the final balance based on grades and stronger pricing? How long will this information like take to come through? Many thanks

INPP is also worth a look if you are after a solid yield, good dividend cover and trading on a hefty discount to NAV