Member Info for SpadesAspade

Matty I posted this last night in answer to Merc and this is where I stand on the subject,

Merc, no disrespect mate but there is no way it should go for that sort of figure.
Think of it as if you were the owner, knowing that there could possibly be 20,30 40 million ounces of gold and god knows how much copper and other minerals in the ground, would you settle for £50-100M, I don't think so.
Why would you take a 5% deal based on only a fraction of a fraction. You just wouldn't, or at least a CEO with ambitions wouldn't.
And yes I know all about you can't get a 100% of what the gold in the ground is worth, but I think paying 50% for it should be looked upon as a great deal for NCM. It's like saying you buy one ounce and you get one ounce for free.

I'm banking on reserves being at least 20M ounces in time, and @ $1000 per ounce profit that is an overall pre tax profit of around $20 Billion. with POG staying around $1800.
So in my eyes and my opinion, 30% of that would be a nice $6 Billion to GGP. So I would be saying, look Sandeep, both you and I know what's down there, if you want a further 5% then I will give you a 50% discount for it, so just sign the cheque for $500 Million and be done with it. You will also make $500 Million over time, otherwise I'll keep the 5% and cash in with a $Billion dollars myself over time. In fact I could use that as future collateral against any loans I wish to do to finance our ongoing costs.
And like I said that is without any value for copper etc and any rise in the POG.

Can anyone please explain to me why they think that the 5% FMV is only based on what is known to present day, ie a fraction of a fraction ?

This is exactly word for word what is written in the original JV documentation that was released to the market on the 12th March 2019.

(Additional Farm-in) within a period of 12 months from the date following satisfaction of the Stage 4 Commitment (Additional Period), Newcrest shall have an option exercisable by written notice to the Company for it or its related body corporate nominee to acquire an additional 5% Farm-in Interest at fair market value.

Now unless I'm missing something, there is no evidence that it states that the 5% FMV option is restricted to what is known at the date of exercising said option.

IMO FMV is what can be reasonably assumed as being in the ground, even though not proven. You can never prove anything until it's in your hand.
Like anything in life, you pays your money and you take your chances.

Now that can work both ways, NCM & GGP could of already had conversations and assume there is 20M oz's eqivalent in the ground, and decide that that is the figure both parties are happy to do the calculations on.
Now If it ends up where there are only 15M oz's, GGP win.
If it ends up there are 40M oz then NCM win.

I have seen many opinions on this subject touted on this board since the news hit and this is my opinion.
Yes I seem to be at the higher end of valuations opinionated, but why not, like I said, I have not seen anywhere were it states that is only based on what is known up to now. Surely there has to be some latitude for growth.

It was Australia Day (Bank Holiday) yesterday Sam

I'm just a bit surprised you didn't say "Good results are nailed on" LOL

Sam with a name like yours it's good to see you have a sense of humour, ATB matey

You can still say Dick you know. It's not banned yet

No worries Merc, I thought you'd been sniffing those petrol fumes again LOL

Merc, no disrespect mate but there is no way it should go for that sort of figure.
Think of it as if you were the owner, knowing that there could possibly be 20,30 40 million ounces of gold and god knows how much copper and other minerals in the ground, would you settle for £50-100M, I don't think so.
Why would you take a 5% deal based on only a fraction of a fraction. You just wouldn't, or at least a CEO with ambitions wouldn't.
And yes I know all about you can't get a 100% of what the gold in the ground is worth, but I think paying 50% for it should be looked upon as a great deal for NCM. It's like saying you buy one ounce and you get one ounce for free.

I'm banking on reserves being at least 20M ounces in time, and @ $1000 per ounce profit that is an overall pre tax profit of around $20 Billion. with POG staying around $1800.
So in my eyes and my opinion, 30% of that would be a nice $6 Billion to GGP. So I would be saying, look Sandeep, both you and I know what's down there, if you want a further 5% then I will give you a 50% discount for it, so just sign the cheque for $500 Million and be done with it. You will also make $500 Million over time, otherwise I'll keep the 5% and cash in with a $Billion dollars myself over time. In fact I could use that as future collateral against any loans I wish to do to finance our ongoing costs.
And like I said that is without any value for copper etc and any rise in the POG.

Mercedes Man, how on earth do you get £50-100 million. Do you have any idea of worth or not. Jeez Some people.

Hi Jiffy, I have spoken with Steve Todoruk on several occasions and here is an email I sent him last year and his response.
He has always said that he felt we would be taken out by NCM. And it is interesting that Sprott have never sold any of their holdings in GGP. It looks to me that they are doing the same as many others here and just sitting tight until the BIG pay day.

Fri 30/04/2021 11:08

Hi Steve, thanks for your updates regarding Chalice, Greatland & Castillo Copper, but i'm asking you for your latest thoughts of where you see Greatland Gold in the next 1-3 years. Are you still positive about the company and do you still see a buy-out being the most probable outcome.

Thanks in advance.

Fri 30/04/2021 20:55

Hi ***********.

Greatland Gold – One of my current big wins for my clients. This is one of the top new discoveries of the last 10 years. JV partner – Newcrest Mining, just announced a maiden resource of 4.2 million ounces of gold equivalent. The deposit is wide open so as Newcrest continues to drill it while they soon start driving an underground decline, I am certain the deposit will get a lot bigger. Newcrest should take them over but if Newcrest feels the takeover would be to expensive, the worst case scenario is that Newcrest starts mining this very profitable deposit and doesn’t takeover GGP, then Newcrest will have to share 25% of the profit from the mining operation meaning GGP turns into a very profitable miner and would be re-rated accordingly.

Hope this helps

Yea sorry guys, jumped on it too quick as I was listening, pity you can't delete your own post but life is what it is. You live by the sword and die by the sword too.

It might just come down to who has the fattest envelope. SD or SB ?

Listen from around 11 mins 50 seconds in. Who do you think he might be talking about ?

A nice new interview with Steve Todoruk on his thoughts regarding what he thinks is happening for Gold Miners in 2022

https://mishtalk.com/economics/mishtalk-tv-episode-6-precious-metal-outlook

As Jim would say to some on here.
“Well then boys, unfortunately you you didn’t manage to answer any questions correct. BiggL & Eric hard luck but your BFH (bus fare home) is safe.
Now there you go, with your Bendy Bully & tankard, but before you go, let’s just see what you could of won.
Cmon Bring it in boys,
It’s a hundred years worth of gold.
Never mind have a safe journey home”

Mounded = now under.
Bloody predictive text does my head in

Interactive Investors categorically do not lend out shares fullstop.
I have asked their compliance team this question on a couple of occasions as well as asking if they provide information to Bloomberg as to who holds what in their account.
This was done as recently as this week as my name appeared on a rather dubious Bloomberg Top Sellers List, showing I had sold several million on my stock.
I wasn’t a happy bunny I can tell you.
ii said they definitely do not lend out stock and they have asked me to provide them with the screenshots that was posted over on the Telegram group, as this is mounded investigation.
Some funny games being played by some.

Hi Jiffy, I run a VPN 24/7. much more secure.

LA, honestly mate I don't know. The 18M that was dropped on us was on 11th January. Obviously JPM only declared their short yesterday 19th. So I wouldn't like to speculate at this stage, but all will be revealed shortly. We should have more of a clue when Ortex updates their chart tomorrow afternoon, bearing in mind that Ortex is always a day behind.

But I don't know about the two very very late trades being posted at 18:53 for 2,569,876 each @ 14.029p
Not seen trades going through that late for a very long time.