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At clinical stage. Been going 20 years.

$2bn, all in cash.

Let's hope they re-use the same Terms Sheet soon.

I’ve never bought into the necessity of the next P2 trials as the catalyst for a funding solution; all that those trials can potentially achieve is to prove what Synairgen already know from the data they have, and BP know it too and recognise the logic of that inevitability. “We know it works” is accepted wisdom. That’s why I couldn’t understand why a JV can’t be constructed right now, or indeed several months ago.

However, Tommy’s initial unsolicited reference to Casanova today has thrown us all a bone. It’s confirming that the triage mechanism is the key (and only) missing link in the Synairgen treatment, it’s as simple as that, and it's only that which is delaying a BP commitment, not further trial results themselves. It’s quite a vicious binary thing – without it, hospitals cannot economically target the use of Synairgen’s treatment and certainly won’t pay for blanket prescription. We therefore have an absolute dependency on Casanova, and the critical path to commercialisation (still through the “have to do” trials of course) depends on how fast they can prove/hone their diagnostic tool.

The lack of the NY message is infuriating, but I do believe there is a reasonably optimistic conclusion to be drawn from Marsden’s silence. I think we are close to an agreement, particularly with Tommy & Co. putting more shifts in than a WWII munitions factory to screen out criticism away from interested eyes. There are four players at the negotiating table and one of them is Casanova Labs; Tommy’s March date is now making sense.

It’s still wrong to have to construct a jigsaw like this just because the CEO is lacking or couldn’t care to navigate the path of acceptable disclosure, but ultimately the picture on the box is emerging and it’s looking good IMHO.

That’s me done here.

Keep going TFG (Tommy-Fruits-Gunto lol)

Thank you to those selfless contributors and GLALTHs!

Tommy, do you know if Casanova is involved in Universal currently? TIA.

Thank you Tommy.

Tommy, do you think Synairgen's strategic dependency on Casanova Labs development of the triage capability might be on the critical path here, and delaying the next set of trials? Ergo, holding up any collaboration agreement (inc. funding solution)? Presumably Casanova also recognise their strategic value to Synairgen which potentially adds another seat (and further complexity) at the negotiation table?

Tommy - RM can, and should, sell the company/assets. Even £200m or £1ps would work for most shareholders with their sixpence shares currently. The trouble is, it doesn't work for RM when he's only got 1m shares and is facing the dole. Simple as that. He and the Chair are still chasing the £10bn Numis dream, they couldn't care less about the shareholders.

Tommy, the BoD has let the price of my shares plummet by 97% and have done nothing about it in two years. I'm certainly not playing games.

Please answer the question - why has Synairgen, with a CCO in place for three years, not secured a JV when research companies at P1, P2 and P3, with far less data, routinely have?

Gunto - at the fourth time of asking, since you pooh-poohed my valuation, what is yours?

Try to add something to the debate here, it's not a playground for screaming kids.

Tommy, are you able to explain Synairgen's inability to secure a JV when other research companies at P1, P2 and P3 can routinely do this?

Or is Richard about to announce one?!

Size82 - P2 and P3 assets can go to a BP at anything up to a $1bn, all the deal data supports that. Patents are worth more in the hands of the BP because they definitely have the capability to take them to commercialisation (assuming authorisation) and then to maximise that as they have the distribution reach. The science remains the same whoever owns the patent, so the probability of authorisation should be the same, except that probability has to be adjusted for trials expertise and experience, so again the patent is worth more in BP's hands.

From all the comparable deal data, Synairgen assets should be worth several hundred millions to a BP. I've already said £400m as my best guess, which is loose change to a BP, and in an auction the FOMO around a unique host-directed multi-viral should surely get it there...? At £400m, if it fails, then that level of investment loss by a BP is not significant in the context of their P&L.

Do have a look at that link I posted.

GLALTHs.

Hmm, you might want to have a read of this sometime, it covers the patent cycle:

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-11814-2_1

Spoiler alert for Jint - patent value is not binary. They accrue greater value as they proceed through the clinical phases.

Or maybe all those pre-authorisation deals of several hundred million dollars every month are just pretend?

Gunto - final chance, give us a figure!

Gunto, you're invested here (I assume), so you must have some idea of the value of the company's primary asset.

What is it?

Gunto - what value do you put on the patents then?

A SPAC was a very real option. They courted at the JPM conference in January and put out a General Manager job ad for the Us shortly after. They either blew it or didn't fancy it in the end. SPACs are often sponsor-personality plays. Read into that what you will.

Other companies, at all stages of research, strike JV deals with BP.

Why can’t Synairgen, which includes a CCO on the payroll for the past three years, do the same? Could it be Doc Dan’s allusion to Synairgen’s inexperience and outdated skills, plus the dead hand of RM, together with the BoD hangers-on, produces a recipe that is unpalatable for a BP? Obviously Janssen aren't tempted after 18 months of daily interaction.

And this is not "subjective criticism" - the market is valuing Synairgen at below its cash reserves, essentially saying that having RM & Co in situ is destroying shareholder value by an amount that is greater than the value of the patents (wow!).

Outright acquisition gets around this legacy problem, but as we know from the shareholding figures, the £400m - £1bn price tag for a P2/P3 opportunity isn’t enough for SS and RM, and BP cannot justify to their shareholders paying more, particularly with a benchmark current market cap at £12m. Synairgen’s neglect of the SP has made it a difficult enough acquisition story for a BP to sell to its shareholders even for a deal within that accepted range.

Logically, the next P2 trials don’t solve this problem of being the dance partner that nobody wants, and arguably, even if successful, they don’t materially change the £400m - £1bn valuation range. Although there may be greater perceived certainty, ultimately they’re still in the P2/P3 valuation range.

Maybe RM will surprise us with a JV or sale announcement shortly; however, the value-destroying Synairgen operation, together with the over-arching self-interest and the hubris that Doc83 neatly described some ago, make neither of those outcomes particularly likely. I’d love to be proved wrong.

So what then? Ideally, TFG would prefer not to make a hostile move and force a sale. The patents and data might be transferred easily enough but continuity in the regulator relationships might be a risk… however I’m sure that TFG could assemble a loss-recovery deal of circa £400m in any circumstance.

But TFG are “aligned” n’est pas? Yes they certainly are Tommy. Until the day that they aren’t. I’m hoping that day is soon if RM is unable to surprise us quickly, like, er, now.

Tick tock, tick tock…

GLALTHs!

AIMHO. DYOR.

Marsden does have to be careful that TFG don't decide to take the reigns and sack him. extinguishing his options. The guy is un-employable, and he'd have just 1m shares in a £2ps recovery deal. That order for the fleet of Sunseekers won't be going in.

TFG will have a recovery option with a BP in mind, that's for sure.

Dickie can laugh and say that's ridiculous, TFG are so nice to him. And they will be. Until the day that they aren't .

My apologies, a correction to my earlier post in this thread that stated Simon Shaw holds 1.5% of the company's shares (and is therefore disinterested in a £400m rescue deal that would bail out shareholders).

SS has actually got 1.5m shares, so 0.75% in fact, which would garner him only £3m in such a deal. Marsden has just 1m shares, but maybe his 2.7m options would crystallise in the event of a transaction, I don't know. But you can see from the numbers that the un-Dynamic Duo's interests are not aligned with ours. Many of us have lost up to 97% of our investment, they haven't and they don't care, they want to sit it out for a crack at the Numis ten billion prize, happily collecting their salaries as they go. They have been at this for 20 years remember and will keep going, they want far more than what would satisfy most shareholders currently.

Might be interesting to understand the consensus on Simon Shaw in the Savills chat room...

So what Tommy Fruits?

What are the BoD doing RIGHT NOW to reverse the 97% drop in the Share Price?

They have done nothing to reverse the fall in the past two years.

Why are you constantly trying to push criticism out of view with your 24/7 attendance when you reckon there will be nothing doing until March?

Great post Brighty.

That level of deal, circa £400m ~ £2 ps (the “rescue deal”), has always been attainable since the Sprinter failure two years ago. It’s TFG’s safety net deal whilst they let the Chair & CEO chase the £10 billion Numis dream, oblivious to suffering shareholders in the meantime.

Shaw owns c.1.5% of Synairgen’s shares but drags around £2m out of Savills most years, so a deal that only garners £6m proceeds isn’t the prize he has coveted these last twenty years, it doesn’t really take him to a higher wealth bracket. Incidentally, that 20-year stint should pose a serious concern for Savills’ independent director – even if Synairgen’s doesn’t care – over flagrant disregard for governance best practice.

Similarly, Marsden is “non-aligned” to the shareholders sitting on 97% losses, he would prefer to take his time and land the “big one” particularly since he’s on a nice earner in the meantime. He will also know that he is practically un-employable now, he has an indifferent track record with a modus operandi stuck in 2004 from when Shaw brought him in (36 connections and precious few posts on LinkedIn tell you that).

Note that Numis/Finncapp haven’t been engaged to promote any price tag in the last two years.

However, and this is the positive, TFG won’t give “the deadly duo” endless time; they have already booked their prior losses, so a £400m deal generates a c.£100m gain and they might just want to book that in some period soon.

It will be interesting to see the next company communication, but frankly it will be worthless yet again to most shareholders unless it has some immediate positive impact on the SP.

Whilst the company doesn’t care about the SP (ergo the shareholders) there is obviously some measure of sensitivity to criticism on this public forum given the herculean efforts of Tommy Fruits, why might that be I wonder?

GLALTHs!

For any number of players you can draw in!

How to play:

- One of the players is selected as the “CEO” who must then not speak to the other players who are called “Shareholders”

- At the start, each Shareholder has one hundred thousand £1.75 tokens.

- Each Shareholder rolls the dice to advance around the Board (the Board is uneven and slippery so be careful!)

- Every time a Shareholder lands on any square they must swap a £1.75 token with the CEO for a 7p token. The CEO collects the £1.75 tokens in a special pot marked “Pension”

- If two Shareholders land on the same square, then they draw a card from the “Strategy Chest” and without looking at it they hand it to the CEO who mimes the strategy. If the Shareholders guess correctly then they win… nothing

- If a Shareholder lands on the Sprinter square they must visit Tommy Fruits in his mouse shop in Southampton, not pass Go and not collect nebulous trial information

- Any Shareholder who lands on the “Payroll” square must hand £360,000 worth of tokens to the CEO

- The CEO is the winner every time

(*also marketed as HEIST!)

Merry Christmas all LTHs, there has to be SOMETHING soon, keep the faith!