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“ Overall, we are confident there is currently significant option value in Greatland with Newmont's 70% interest in Havieron considered non-core and our existing last right of refusal on any sale.”
And the strange part,
" If an opportunity to consolidate ownership of Havieron were to arise"
Those two statements are at odds with each other.
Is there some doubt in the GGP board room as to whether NEM 70% will be available?
Why 'IF' an opportunity were to arise? I thought the opportunity had arisen the day NEM stated it would divest Havieron.
Just over 1 year ago gold was trading around $1800 oz and GGP was trading around 8p. Fast forward from then to now and we have gold at $2395 oz and GGP at 6p.
So 1 yr ago we were valued at circa $400 million and now $300 million, hmmm let's take a step forward re the gold price.
If you take the $600 oz more now and do the math, that means that our 30% stake in Havieron has increased our in ground profit value by nearly $1.8 billion in extra profit, not total value. just the gold price increase, yet our company value has decreased by 25% in that same period. So with everything we know and yet don't know, we are being discounted on an unprecedented level. It's very clear there are some very unscrupulous people pulling some very dirty tricks to assist this major disconnect.
Don't rule out anyone that may be involved or complicit in this banditry, there will be individuals and organisations doing their absolute worst to remove you from the share register. The closer they are to the game the bigger the threat they pose.
With all that said, Havieron 30% as it is at this or higher gold price makes a complete mockery of the current sp. Should we increase our stake in Havieron then the dynamic will go parabolic, basically GGP will be known as a parabolic stock.
"A parabolic stock is a stock that has seen an exponential increase in its stock price. A parabolic move in a stock is defined by a speed up in price appreciation, relative to prior price action."
I am sure that when (not if) the news breaks re GGP clear path to production and % in Havieron, you will not get anywhere near a 6p buy in, even if we continue as is it can not be held at this price for much longer. At some point soon the speculators will move in. Even if we end up with no Havieron it's still huge upside at this price.
Some of you need to take a long hard look at the man in the mirror.
Gervaise Heddle was idolised by you all and rightly so. He took the sp from nothing to 38p and most of you bitter fuggers didn't take advantage, so you blame him and everyone else who posts for your own failures.
On the other hand, you very same bitter, holier than thou types love Shaun Day who has taken the sp from 38p to 6p and that's a fact that none of you can contest.
You are all about to find out if that trust and love is repaid.
Corporate types don't give a flying fig for private investors usually, let's hope he is different.
1- No one buys/takes on Telfer from Newmont. They then must decommission (unlikely) or get Havieron ore in PDQ.
Win for GGP.
2- A.N. Other buys Hav 70% and Telfer, GGP then go mining.
Win for GGP.
3- GGP buys Hav 70% and Telfer then go mining.
Win for GGP.
4- Separate Co's buy Hav 70% and Telfer then GGP go mining.
Win for GGP.
5- GGP buy Hav 70% only then go mining.
Win for GGP.
6- GGP take on Telfer not ideal (depends on the deal) with their 30% Hav then go mining.
Win for GGP?
7- A.N.Other buys 100% Hav.
GGP shareholders will win. lose or draw, depending on your buy price.
8- A.N.Other acquire GGP, result same as 7.
9- Joint ownership of Telfer could appeal to some interested parties.
10- GGP do a J/V with A.N. Other for % split of Hav and Telfer. GGP then go mining.
Win for GGP.
Whatever happens, it will all revolve around Telfer, I don't know where the sp will be when we find out but it won't be 6p. Though I think some here need to temper their expectations.
We need this issue resolved, get back on the decline and stop these delays that continue to help all but the retail investor.
My preference is number 3 but my head says number 10 most likely. How about you?
"I suspect its dropping mostly because quitley people are phucked off with SD & GGP not saying anything"
I think you have hit the nail there, it's understandable that many are very pizzed off.
SD has known that Palmer would divest Hav and Telfer for much longer than any of you think.
The lack of any update and no apparent progress on the water problem is testing the majority.
A hand full of hard core loyalists that post here regularly are I guess also very concerned but won't admit it. These are very testing times, 38p to under 6p is stomach churning, yet there appears to be no news from this alleged rock star BOD to steady the company value.
I guess this is the phase of retail investors falling like flies and the big money moving in, being assisted by this series of delays, lack of clarity and for me, a feeling the BOD are happy for this to continue for some time yet.
Anyone involved with The Aim market, in particular, you illicit types. Take a listen to a very well respected Australian geologist Callum Baxter on his interview posted here '8 Mar 2024 21:56'
You will note his views on Australian institutions getting involved with GGP when cross listed on the ASX, the floodgates will open, also take note of what they think of Aim "it's not their favoured market" now why would that be???????
Clearly they think you are a bunch of thieving, corrupt and conniving grifters.
Grifters : "A grifter is a con artist: someone who swindles people out of money through fraud. If there's one type of person you don't want to trust, it's a grifter:"
Oddly it's the same definition as stated for Aim market maker.
When we list on the ASX you will be shown for what you truly are, grifters extraordinaire.
Ok, so lets move to the next meeting room from this one re price disconnect to being a fly on the wall in the Fair market value meeting room with 7 people.
FMV in real time as of now with all the known knowns and current gold price.
IMO, it would go like this, 7 people deciding TRUE market value and the 7 members range in scale from ultra pessimistic to ultra positive.
I would see the sp being discussed at a range between 18 and 24p from bottom of scale to top of scale for today, no more no less.
So in essence for some perverse or illicit reason the aim market is eating itself from within. Unless the fundamentals change to the downside drastically or gold price falls back to $1000/oz, I predict this camel's back will break real soon. Too many near term catalysts for the market to continue their illicit subterfusion.
AIMO.
Not long ago gold was around $1800/oz, since that not long ago it's now $360 higher per oz. At our share of 30% = 2.5 million oz, that increases our profit on that gold by just short of $1 billion extra just in a matter of a few weeks and that's clear profit.
Yet the Market values GGP lower now than it did a few weeks ago. At some point this straw of disconnect is going to break this camel's back and some. If gold continues at this rate and we hit $2500/oz this yr, then it's $1.8 billion extra profit for doing nothing extra, now do the math for 100% of Hav, it starts to get very eye watering.
CEO of Newmont, so if I was a shareholder in Newmont I would be concerned and agitated about his forward outlook. He says
"but they are tier 2 assets, that means that their their production profile is not going to hit our T1 definition so they won't get the management time and the capital within a Newmont portfolio."
No forward looking growth strategy there then, I believe he has dropped the ball with regards Havieron and also believe it will come back and haunt him.
Where are his Tier one assets of the future? Will he return to buy Hav once it meets his Tier one criteria? What price then?
It's akin to Man City disposing of their academy programme and buying Foden back for 100 million when he was already theirs.
There is only one 'safest and govt supported mining jurisdiction in the world only one Havieron in a lifetime and they are both in Australia and he and his board of directors have decided to sell while it's still in the academy, only to be faced in the future with buying back a Messi or Foden for multiples of their early value.
All because they wrongly believe in this Tier one now policy. Limited thinking in my opinion.
Their short term cash gain will look catastrophic in his tenure should they need to add Hav to their portfolio as a Tier one mine.
Closed thinking management is to close innovation and future potential growth. Being the number one gold producer does not automatically mean you are always right.
"Raising at this level gives us less cash have always questioned wtf is going on here and whether Shaun was in on it."
That's a very valid question and should not be dismissed out of hand. Whatever happens, he was in on it, weather we get shafted or not.
I have never been for or against SD in his performance since he took over but, in 4 yrs in office, not one RNS from him in that time that has had a material impact on the sp to the upside. Way too much love for him here.
It's interesting now that many are saying "game on or over" so many high profile and prolific posters have been saying "this time next year" for the last 4 yrs.
Now he must deliver for the PI, but will he?
There are many here that have backed him unconditionally and without question, you are about to find out what he is all about for real.
Thats 2.5moz/eq to GGP. At $1000 profit then it's a value of $2.5 billion as of now.
3 possible reasons why,
1,, They already had the data from NCM, so knew what it was anyway.
2,, They will dispose of Hav and SD knows that.
3,, They will take all of Hav based on current data from NCM.
Do you not see the irony in your post?
I think GGP need to move on with other prospects as Scallywag is becoming a bit of an Achilles heel for the sp. Revisit later when value is more aligned with fundamentals. It's giving the unclean far too many opportunities to knock the sp.
Scallywag should have zero value attributed to the current sp but poor news on it will be used as a very blunt instrument by the spivs. Put Scallywag on the back burner for now, it's doing more damage than good.
The MRE and other potential value enhancing news in the medium term needs to come unhindered, so good to get this out of the way. ATM we seem to be short of good news and only getting mediocre to poor news will only play to the wrong types, we don't need that.
Hi tiggerman, I hear your pain but please indulge me for a moment.
Professional investors never ask for news on a rising sp. Simple basic logic.
Asking for the MRE update on a falling sp is ok, to arrest the fall.
Asking for the MRE update on a stagnant sp is ok, to give it a boost.
But never ask for any updates on drilling, MRE, assays, etc when the sp is rising, you may not always get what you want.
Also to keep within etiquette, learn the pronounce and spell the top executives name correctly. It's just good housekeeping, tis all.
GLA.
Des, that's an awful attempt to induce FOMO. Not needed, you sound desperate.
I've been involved with PGM's all my career, I can honestly say this is the first time I have ever seen a sp drop on a Potential nickel sulphide discovery, furthermore, When a nickel sulphide trace is found anywhere, the market always react positively, anywhere from 10% - 50% but never a fall.
Some entity does not like this RNS.
Nickel Sulfide Deposits:
"These deposits form from the solidification and crystallization of nickel-rich magma from the Earth’s mantle. As the magma cools and solidifies, nickel sulfide minerals, such as pentlandite and pyrrhotite, can separate and accumulate to form ore bodies. Magmatic nickel sulfide deposits are typically associated with ultramafic or mafic rocks, such as komatiites or norites, and are known for their high-grade nickel content."
Nickel-Cobalt-Copper Sulfide Deposits:
"These deposits are typically associated with mafic and ultramafic intrusive rocks and are characterized by the presence of nickel, cobalt, and copper sulfide minerals. These deposits can occur as disseminated sulfides in the host rock or as discrete ore bodies, and are often found in association with other valuable minerals, such as platinum-group elements (PGEs)."
All nickel required for EV batteries is class 1 nickel, class 1 nickel only comes from sulphide.
Major nickel discoveries remain scarce amid looming supply deficits.
"S&P Global Commodity Insights has identified 82 major nickel discoveries made from 1990 to 2022, containing 147 million metric tons of nickel in oxide and sulfide deposits. Only four were discovered in the past decade and account for just 3% of the total nickel discovered"
The mining and processing industries are struggling to keep up with demand for nickel largely created by the EV ramp-up and major ramp up in stainless steel consumption.