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Quite agree with Steve. What will turn our share price round is higher profits. For considerably higher profits, we need higher gold prices in real terms. Inflation has been near 20% over the last couple of years so that is near $400 that the gold price has to be higher to be the same in real terms! Ounces help, cost cutting helps but the big thing is the difference between costs and selling price, costs can be reduced a little but tough with high inflation and in real terms the management has started successfully reducing them, but the big motor has to be higher real gold prices. If or when who know, a pure gamble especially in the shorter term. We all remain full of hope….so yes add inflation to those comparisons
Tibbs and Tornado, the cey v hoc share price does reflect their relative performance.. Historically Hoc share price has been considerably higher than Cey, but over the last three years crashed below on even worse news than the Cey mine wall - a hard left government and potential withdrawal of their mining licence. This last year it has only recovered a bit for the shares to level peg. On capitalisation Cey is now worth nearly 2 ½ times Hoc. Before their respective tumbles Hoc was only ⅓rd less than Cey. It plunged to 2/3rds less, on political problems, so yes but all it has done in the last year is make a bit of a recovery as these have been solved but comparatively has done far worse than Cey over the last few years. Over 5 years Hoc is down 40% while Cey is slightly up. Last year’s performance figures are thus a bit of an aberration, as just as said making up a small bit of lost ground. Going forward, Hoc’s main mine Inmaculada has lower costs than Sukari and makes good profits, especially now it has permission again. Their still low valuation now is because Pallancata mine is closing and their new Mara Rosa mine , that comes on stream next year, is costing hundreds of millions to develop. They have had to borrow at the worst of times. Cey is the better company hence the far higher valuation, however imho Hoc is the better bet over the next two years as it should get back to near Cey production levels at lower cost, once Mara Rosa is on stream, but valued at a third of the price. I bought more when the permit news came through (All numbers approx)
If price sticks here you will be right, will be good and then good news next year should lift us
Maybe a rise into them but they are pretty dire with low production, very high costs and sizeable losses. Pallancata is closing in the next 3 months which will help the losses and not much further reduc3 production as nearly spent. However jam tomorrow, always jam tomorrow. When Mara Rosa comes on stream it will help but then there is hefty investment in the new pallancata and we will already have maybe $200m debt or near half cap especially if price falls much on these sad results. Jam tomorrow is a little further off.
Steve, not pointless, if figures are more or less expected the market positions itself in expectation then takes profits when they come out which is why the movement after the figures come out is so often counter intuitive, have a lovely weekend
Snap, Glen
Should have read 7 share trades, not traded, dratted auto correct, but even if a bit more as you say, amazingly thin at just 33000 shares. An LSE PM miner like Centamin with a similar ball park share price and profit, albeit 4 times higher PE, can trade around a million shares a day, Tharisa currently lies in a creek barely visited and waiting, also as shown by th paucity of posts here and even fewer over on ADVFN. Hopefully as the Chromium profits become more apparent in the finals in November the share will become a bit more noticed and even loved, and then when Karo comes on stream if PGM’s recover. But somehow Ilya it would be helpful if you could alert and excite Mrs Market to your attractions, as she seems utterly uninterested just now
Visitor, I just opened this to ask the same question. Last Monday Tharisa didn’t seem to tweet the weekly PGM basket and chromium prices as usual, and this week can’t even find a tharisa or tharisa_sa Twitter/X account at all??
Spoonington, how much do you invest here because you think profitability will rise again at this gold price, and how much in the hope or expectation that it is fairly or underpriced at this gold price, ao a play on gold rising?
Spoonington, I think what you write is spot on in every respect including about Cowichan, your knowledge and clear explanations are much appreciated. I quite agree about the managements. Also I used to bang on about rising AISC when others were obsessed by ounces. However it is now actually falling in real terms and as you say is more like others as they have risen, so no longer the problem. It is a shame there is so much less for dividends that under Pardy with such high capex and less of remaining profit paid out. Plus the weird $6m just in this half on the weird $1900 hedge, another sizeable chunk of dividend gone. He was not as bad as some make out and Horgan not as good. Our dividend just coming is sadly lower
I think the hedges cost $6m for 120k oz at $1900. If so that is $50 an ounce, a huge amount to pay for a hedge for just these 6monthns as ends by December just to have flexibility, for a company with lots of cash? There is always the possibility Cowichan is right just as Kees was all those years ago. Cowichan how does Emma owe Cley money, and can they ever get it back by reducing royalty payments? Maybe you could get one of the analysts to ask the question at the next figures presentation just to see. If you are right?
On another note Hoc share price used to be around 30 or 40% higher than Cey, it made a good trade between the two as the gap rose and fell until badly hit by politics. The day this resolved and the Inmaculada mining permit was finally given back a couple of weeks ago I switched a bit of Cey to Hoc. Today Hoc share price finally justsurpassed Cey and Iwould expect it to get to about 25%more
…apart from Hoc being mainly a gold miner now
Steve, I think you may have accidentally misread my post, I didn't say when your post have nothing to with Centamin but when they have anything to do with Centamin, however tangential and that you should not be dissed, so no need to diss me! Peace to all. All the best
Silver is down nearly 10% in a month increasing the losses on mining it by around 30%. Partly explains the large 15% tumble in a couple of weeks in our share price. Luckily a third of our silver is hedged at around $26, from memory. Dark, I don't really trust the likes of Zerohedge when they say silver is the wrong price, it is the price where buyers and sellers equal out, many are worried about lower investment demand and China economic fallout. However what the market fails to realise is that Hoc is increasingly a gold producer with a smaller and smaller amount of silver. As Tornado suggests, the gold hedge seems to have been done at the right time tho from memory it doesn't come into effect till next year. Hoc may not be good at mining but they seem excellent at reading the tops of the market to buy their hedges - which of course have been very necessary as, even with the hedge, Pallancata is making hefty losses on each ounce of silver mined, and we have a lot of cash to find and interest to pay while developing Maria Rosa till it starts mining next year.
Repression, thanks and jus so, Messrs Cowichan Jones and Bond all have points of view, Cowichan might stop dissing Bond and Jones, when their posts have anything to say about their view on Centamin’s direction, however tangential, including the economy and of course any influencers on the gold price, and equally Cowichan’s posts such as the one on Evergrand are relevant as a Chinese economic slump would be relevant to gold and centamin. It is important to have many different views, so thanks again Repression. It has been wonderful that historically this board, unlike so many, has mostly avoided the school yard tho previously both Mr Tibbs and I have been driven off, so we have had moments like this but shrugged them off. Incidentally I visited the Freddie Mercury sale at Sotheby’s where there were some of his fabulous…golden flip flops. - will we ever get ours….