The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Siko your thoughtful and gentle contributions are much appreciated by many here, as is your knowledge of Egypt, but above all I appreciate your courtesy, it would be wonderful if all here could be as courteous but we live in an age of polarisation and anger. Thank you, you are wise not to get drawn in, albeit I do hope you continue posting about the feeling in Egypt, also as servicing debt becomes harder and its economic and political ramifications.
Chromium ticked up again today on Investor.com now up 5% this week, I know not the same as what we sell ours for but usually ultimately go up in tandem and had been stuck a while like rh albeit at much higher prices. I pay for my new ev today. Wltp range 460 miles, wow, except wpa range which is more realistic is 360 and going at 80 on autobahn in winter probably nearer 240 and then should charge between 20 and 80% or degrade battery so only 60% useable, so 140 miles, so a lot of people re going to hear this from friends and neighbours and need hybrids for journeys if like me hate idea of queuing in a service station every 150miles and then waiting another half hour while charges (and degrades battery by speed charge). I hate service station junk food. So maybe hybrid demand will keep up?
Rylidan. I have over 500,000 THS shares, why it so interests me, and not surprising I am worried. I never understand why anyone questioning where and why a share is going, and seeking opinions and numbers, is assumed to bother without any skin in the game. I hugely value Mike, Moneyman etc views, please just read my posts if they annoy you and you don’t want to but please keep this historically very civil board courteous. Thanks
Mike, the PGM basket is still falling, I now make it $1330 for Tharisa mine and $1230 for Karo. Luckily chromium is still holding up. However if this PGM fall continues and we get down nearer $1000 will chromium profits at current $300 price (a big IF) be enough to make up for PGM losses? Also, although we are a completely different company, SLP is also a PGM miner and seems to me far more reliant on PGM price, yet holds up better? It is cash positive and has an AISC probably now around $1000 v a basket around $1350. In as far as you are able can you guess an AISC for Tharisa chromium and PGM's with chromium and pgm's at current prices and what will Karo's be?
Drew, it is not inflation but almost the opposite, interest rates being so far above inflation (ie 10 yr Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed. Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted.). Basically you can make a good real return on bonds which makes the opportunity cost of holding gold high. Conversely if inflation was high and rates fell gold should soar, but no time soo
Yes Steve it is pretty dire, taking off over 20% inflation of last 3 years gold is $1450 in 2020 money. three years ago the gold price was $1950. so a massive $500 fall, amazing Cey has held up so well. a lot of miners are going to begin having trouble soon with this fall in the face of such high real interest rates which only seem to rise bringing gold down further. the only positive is falling sterling means the fall in our share price is slightly less bad.
Yes indeed Steve, and more the 10 year Tip real interest rate is now 2.2% a rate not seen since rates shot temporarily higher in 2008. Interesting thing is gold then soared 250% to 2011 as interest rates fell. We are not there yet, as you say, but when….. it is this that will have a far bigger effect on Centamin than mining a few more ounces or slightly lower Aisc
Shame divi has plunged
17/18 13c
18/19 14c
19/29 8c
20/21 10c
21/22 8c
22/23 8c
23/24 2.5 c interim (first of two) Average over 10c. Even last couple of years have been 8c @around 20% down. This year likely under half historic and 40% down in a year around 5c. No wonder share price has more than halved to give same yield
Ps figures from dividend max
Gold moves inversely to real interest rates. So inflation raises gold unless interest rise faster which is just what has been happening. Bonds (measured by 10 year TIPS) are now yielding over a real 2%, the highest since the 2009 burst and historically very high. Inflation adjusted gold is near the low of 1970, back where it was at the start of the century and half what it was in 2012. Look at the real prices not nominal
Mike my basket using JM figures is still falling, yesterday $1370 for Tharisa mine and $1285 Karo . However you are right that the Tharisa figure is now lower than JM, $1258 for Tharisa mine and $1226 Karo, but they is because have $800 less for rhodium per oz and $65 less for Palladium, which may be more realistic especially given. spreads. I can understand why they have stopped shouting about it on twitter. Quite agree chromium is great, just wonder if there could be a temporary cut in Chinese use with the building crash, but I think it will be quite a while till hydrogen economy replaces cat use, and rh price may still stay low, luckily Karo is now only a little over 10% dependent on rhodium profit with 75% from platinum and palladium and near 15% for gold
Indeed Mike, but the question is what is our future PE; if/as Karo starts producing how much could its losses increase the PE, none of us know. However I am just placing an order for a Fisker Ocean a BEV this morning. I understand much of the world doesn’t have that option but a marginal difference in demand can affect the PGM prices significantly as we see! Of course a lot of our future PE depends on chromium staying up at current levels or even rising further but if the Chinese pull back accelerates will it? So with this company future PE is a very guessed metric. I prefer to go for the great management and just wish they hadn’t done Karo just now in which case the share price would have been be a lot higher imho. SLP share price now back above unloved THS
In essence that is because when gold falls 10% CEY profits fall 30%, and when gold rises, CEY profits rise three times as fast, the multiplier affect, which is why many of us like miners. The floor in this is that costs keep rising so over the longer term the downward multiplier is greater and the upward multiplier is less