Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Thank you Spoonington, quite agree, I enjoy waking to the overnight posts from those who live in sunnier climes, inc Gnome etc including Tibbs of course from Cornwall, I have visions of him waking and grabbing the computer as a thought comes to mind and then falling back to sleep, unless he has headed south). Also good Telegraph piece from AJ Bell which seems pretty spot on, thanks Razor
So if we all think Karo aisc is around $1400 and current price is 1575 then 150k oz would deliver $26m a year less interest and translated to sterling maybe £10 or 15m profit. Tharisa at current basket price of $1900, and if breakeven is say $1500 then $70k which after tax etc and into sterling maybe £35m. And chromium at current price around £50m? All that Would make a healthy £100m profit? So fine at the moment but Rh still falling, when I said rh would fall below $10k a year ago others thought highly unlikely. Well $5k is as likely or more , than $20k. And chromium could easily falll back. So the big challenge is what we’ll do with Karo spend IF our cash flow was to turn negative. Our declining share price demonstrates this.
On another note interesting that Centamin has earning of 5p per share so PE of 20, while
Tharisa has earnings of 50p per share PE under 2
Tharisa only pays out 17% on profit in divi but that is over 6% and higher than CEY which has payed out most of them though reducing to above 30%
The worry with Theresa is they are ploughing the rest of the profits and more into a new hole in the ground in Zimbabwe, mining platinum palladium rhodium and around 10% gold, but this is very advanced and will start producing next year. Tharisa too have borrowed for the first time, just as interest rates soar, and a similar sort of amount
Tharisa are subject to the rapid drop in rhodium but made up for by the rapid rise in chromium
The share prices are saying the market expects Centamin profits to double
And Tharisa's to fall 5 fold
For both to be on a PE about 10
I am not sure it is right, as both are growth stocks if risky, but Theresa far more so on both
Mike, the trend is your friend, and sadly PGM’s have been in a bear market for nearly two years and I can see no reason for when it will turn, it doesn’t seem we have hit capitulation yet nor near it, so your PE of 2 is looking backwards, looking forwards it could easily be 10 or more, hence the share price. Lucky we have lots of leeway tho shame we have turned borrowers just now. On a cheerier note most of the Karo investment will be financed out of the unusual recent windfall profits so that 9% bond doesn’t mean Karo has to pay back 9% on all its investment, and in a way lucky it isn’t ready now with tumbling PGM prices - hopefully they will have turned in a couple of years when Karo finally fully going. Even more hopefully chromium will continue to save the day, tho maybe not if the world hits the big oncoming recession/slump.
Cowichan thanks as ever, you are so informative and I appreciate your intelligent scepticism and questioning which is what makes this board so special, and for the link to Horgan's presentation; we are stuck with him whether we like it (some of us) or not (others) and the new policy of paying a lower dividend and ploughing profit back in the ground Doropo etc. For me the salient point of the presentation was that the dividend will be down next year yet again to 3-5c, and if gold maintains an average $1800, with costs and revenue same as this year the divi will be 4c, down another 20% and down 60% on last year with similar numbers before the changed policy. If pouring the money into the ground rather than to us comes off it will be good for very long term holders in a few year. However one of the reasons I loved Certain is it had one brilliant long term mine throwing off cash most of which came back to us (as long as dividend was not more than we made and so uncovered) whereas now the new policy will be min 30% of profit back to us. I can see however that it is much more fun for management, who are stakeholders too and rather important ones I imagine in their own eyes. So overall I am equivocal, the management seem to be producing solid and predictable results, controlling costs in this harsh environment and getting ounces back up, all of which I like, but they are spending the profit on gambling on the future (they would say investing) which most other miners do and I can invest in them with sounder gambles than Dorops which I wish they would sell; what was special for me about Centamin was it didn't do that and instead gave us jam today rather than promises tomorrow, which kept the share price up unsurprisingly..
Now a question about the financials, eps is down 25% to 6.29c yet revenue and profit are up, is this because there are more shares or why?
Finally I am glad I bought more on Fridays excessive drop on the new divi and investment strategy, I found my accountant had bought a near 6 figure sum last week, Horgan did the same, looking good IF gold keeps motoring
Stanley I think right on both counts, as I have been saying we may well not get a result yet again this quarter, he says “coming months” ; and it will be a “modified” permit as the board has suggested, this may mean more taxes, more environmental costs, limit on ounces or area mined etc, but it looks like the compromise will be that we do not get the full peemit we had before, reducing profits, hence the mangy share price imho. So he is sadly confirming what we sadly already know. The big question is how bad the compromise will be and when it will finally be haggled out
Supercharger, encouraged by Horgan who I thought made a decent purchase, I have been very naughty and bought some more today, our share price is down near 25% since the start of this year while gold is up 10%, and our shares are down 10% just since earlier this week while gold is again up, the results weren't nice but as just as management said they would be, and it has been a market jerk as they hadn't read the last report; if Cey were fair value at the results as I think they were, then 10% off, improving ounces and rising gold could make decent money and I couldn't resist..like Horgan
But Rh down again, to $9000 on JMAT. We seem to be becoming a chrome minor with some pgm’s, Vulcan was a good move, till Karo opens, luckily (now at least) Karo has much less rh in its basket - under a quarter of the profit compared to 45% in Tharisa and 40% palladium 30% platinum
Big dong, in fact you need cohones not just huge but of marble to survive this wild roller coaster, that leads us ever down a darker and darker hole, with who knows what end as none in sight, but we paid for the ride knowing it would be the craziest, with the owners keeping us in the dark to add to the suspense and need for those marble cohones
Why I hold Steve, good to see the market getting cross at the results just as expected (tho divi even lower than I thought) was much more more short lived than recently, and maybe we can finally look forward, it seems the market is saying so. As said I shall continue to hold as it makes sense to me, if not you, although my average price is around 114 (and 10p less in is isa) I have received over 50p of dividends which makes these overall profitable and rather nice. If not grown in a house building way.. Cey THS and Hoc dividends gave me over £70k income last year with not that much tax, if retired that is huge, this year it will be heavily eroded by inflation and the divi cuts at Hoc and Cey, so I for one look forward to Cey profitability and the higher dividend (of course decently covered) returning. Different investors have different needs and some of us are not confident in timing t he market
Yes it was fairish at 220 as profits were over double, none of us (well hardly any) expected the wall collapse , eps 2021 13c now 6.3c so more than halved explaining share price and divi - we are still paying out most of the earnings even with this reduced payout. The annoying thing for me is I held through thick and especially thin as Hogan as Horgan said deofitabilty would be coming back by now, but we have to wait nother couple of years, hey ho. In the meantime the price is down this morn and traders like Steve can get back in cheaper.