focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I don’t think it’s the mining ministry, but the environment, who are finally getting their act a little together and insisting on safeguards. “Peru’s mining industry has been linked to a string of environmental issues in recent years including deforestation, pollution and the mistreatment of environmental activists.” It is taking an age as the two sides argue it out, but you can see the point of trying to protect a bit of what’s left of the environment, as well as raise more money which Bolsenaro has been doing in Brazil so 78million acres of forest slashed and burned last year, which is three Englands. Also water polluted etc etc. So it is actually good the environment and local indigenous people are getting a voice in Peru, if not for us imho. I wonder what they are tussling about and what the compromise will be (the board have always suggested this is not binary)
Sadly PGM. basket down again, THS down to $1600, Karo to $1440, but this bear has been going for 2 years. No sign of an end. What keeps me is the thought other competitors will be in a worse position The shame is chromium is also heading south, down 3% hence the share price, particularly as THS goes from super cash positive to negative, paying for Karo, just as interest rates soar. Again don’t shoot the messenger, I would love the prices to turn up Xx
Tony, how many times have we told the permit will be decided this quarter. When it wasn’t again in last quarter 2022 there was a tail between the legs rns on 30th dec saying “ Hochschild Mining PLC ("Hochschild" or the "Company") (LSE: HOC) (OTCQX: HCHDF) confirms that the permitting process for Inmaculada's Modified Environment Assessment remains ongoing and that the Company's current expectation is a decision by the Peruvian government in the first quarter of 2023.”. So what will the next rns say?
thanks rebess, like so much in the modern world at the 6th time of trying the page miraculously turned up. i have worked out what is happening, keynes said that by now we'd be working 15hours a week, instead we have created loads of 'bull**** jobs' which aren't satisfying for those doing them but worse makes everything take 10 times longer meaning everyone is less productive as they are so busy trying to get through and filling in all the extra forms. sorry got to run, just hit option 3 6 and 8 which sent me back to 2
I am just trying to do my self assessment tax return online for the first time. Can anyone tell me where I put centamin dividend income in dollars that was over £2000. I understand if filing online I do not need to use an SA 106 form? Also I understand I should change the dollars into pounds at the HMRC rate for the month the dividend was paid? Thanks so much for any help. I have no need of the accountant as I only pension and dividends now retired.
Gosh the basket is down further, can I be calculating it right as I make it now only $1630 and Karo $1450. Yes I know Karo is not producing so currently academic apart from if it was producing it would probably be losing money at this price at least in first year or two so we are spending hundreds of millions on what is rapidly becoming a loss maker I’d PGM’s continue their two year trend and noth8ng to suggest they won’t . If PGM’s continue to fall we become a chromium miner which can sell its PGM at a bit of a loss (apart from Karo that could be mothballed I suppose) so let’s hope chromium keeps rising. Also to reiterate I am not a shorter or manipulator (as if one could hear) but trying to explain why the so many buyers don’t want THS thus making the price just 90p. I hold as if prices continue to fall the weak will be driven out and ultimately our fine management and lower costs will win out when prices eventually recover unless this is secular from Ev’s etc
Mike. The PGM price is hypothetical for profit till Karo opens but not for the share price which looks forward, and as we see and is very worried as the PGM basket continues to fall, now just over $1500 for Karo and around $1690 for Tharisa mine. Mike thanks so much for the Karo Aisc, I wonder if you have calculated aisc for Tharisa mine for both chromium and thePGM basket at the current prices and split between them and at these prices so what proportion of profit is chromium and what proportion PGM’s currently. I have not been able to calculate these numbers so do not calculate actual profit as you clever chaps do, but where it is headed which explains the share price. With rising aisc and the basket down so much over two years my matchbox says PGM profit down from near $3000 an ounce to a tenth of that. Chromium is fab of course but was a much smaller proportion of profit to start. The Karo worry is also justifying the tumbling share price as that projected aisc you quote is likely to have risen so although at least it is still projected to make a small profit, but the share price concern remains that if the 2 year PGM downward trend continues and aisc rises whether it will be loss making on opening. I apologise that some people find explanations of the falling share price so annoying, it matters to me as my 527095 shares have lost me a massive £250k. I have every desire to talk these up. Actually so you mostly stop being so nasty to me let me rewrite this as you would like and do so as you seem to think my posts can affect the price and are just written to do so!. Given the imminent conquering of inflation I see aisc halving. Given the worry about electric car pollution from tyres and batteries I see them being banned. I therefore see the PGM basket rising to $10000. I also see China’s growth fallback reversing and instead soaring to 20% growth as the world booms thanks to the brilliant politicians. So chromium is set to sore. I can say our share price will therefore be over £5 in a year. So short term traders buy buy buy Now will you start being nice to me.? Seriously as written so many times I think this is a great share as such a ver we’ll run company and a brilliant long term hold, just it may be a rocky couple of years just now for you traders who dislike me so. Thanks again Mike Moneyman Ragnar etc for your hard work and brilliant posts
I didn’t read it as saying the permit was approved but rather that Bustamante had done all the work to complete the permit application including all the extra info continually asked for, so now no longer needed while the permit granters finally make up their minds either way during June
Well good news today, Bustamante who has presided over the shareholder destruction and Snap wasted investment is off, I wonder if he was pushed, I hope not because of his permit negotiating skills. However they still say the expect the permit decision within a month…
Tibbs if I am reading this right Dr David Martin is not a medical doctor but a financial researcher full of conspiracy theories. See. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/08/new-plandemic-video-peddles-misinformation-conspiracies/ Martin has peddled conspiracy theories over the years. He published a novel in 2011, which he claimed was based on real events, alleging a rigged 2008 presidential election that was somehow tied to the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
Not a lot to do with either Centamin or reality methinks
Break twister the board has been saying for a long time that the permit result is unlikely to be binary ie yay or nay but in some way limited. If this indeed turns out to be the case the current price may to some extent take account of it which isn’t to say it won’t plummet on the news but may then bounce back?
Yup Chromium up a great 7% already this month PGM down 8%. Presumably more profit now coming from chromium than pgm so chromium rise actually outweighs pgm fall for profit….other than if Karo had kicked in.
Also interesting that chromium 99 spot China has been falling for quite a while on investing.com while our rises
Let me ask you a question, platinum palladium etc stayed flat and rh continued its fall and averaged $5000, which is not impossible and would push the basket under $1600, and chromium remained the same, while inflation pushed costs further how would this affect the profit compared to half one? Thanks and as said all hypothetical, so invest in great management
Mike I am not worried about production number but pgm and chrome prices. When I suggested Rh might fall below $10000 I got lots of criticism for even positing it. Now what if Rh falls below $5000 which is perfectly possible. Even at the rates today Tharisa basket is already below $1800 and karo below $1600. Assuming these fall a bit more and chromium doesn’t rise further which is what I expect then second half will be lower. We cannot be scientific on prices, there are as many people who think they will rise and a platinum etc shortfall plus same chromium, and many who think they will fall as economies fall back,but will they and who knows? So I stay invested, not for the coming profit I cannot really know,nor what the share price will do, but a great management who are growing this company mainly out of their own cash flow. And I for one hugely appreciate your numbers and ways of looking at it as well as other contributors here who are so tolerant of each other and so helpful to me
I was saying PGM price is now near 20% down on that in these latest figures which are for the last 6 month reporting period. Chromium is only slightly up on the average in these figures. Therefore if current prices are maintained profits will be lower second half. I also said nice figures for last half and dividend. I have also said I continue to hold as see great future for these shares particularly given the Greta management. Sorry if you don’t like the figures and only want one view. As said that is sadly Britain today
Nice results and divi, on pgm ave $2216, but basket is now near 20% lower so generating about half the pgm profit in coming half as long as average stays up here. Plus costs are soaring. However pgm oz were down so their recovery will help and hopefully chrome will stay up so with luck second half profits down only a quarter. Market still seems worried at what is coming.
Thanks Mike, Moneyman and Ragnar, your posts are so useful. Ian B, don’t shoot the messenger, I was super optimistic when PGM prices were rising, and more lately have most sadly been right predicting falling share price as the opposite happens - I remember some being furious when I suggested that rh could fall below $10000 - and trying to find reasons for that. However I am not a trader. I only accumulate, sadly for now, as I take a very long term view and on that it looks undervalued unless ehicle electrification is able to find a way of shooting through the third world. Plus I have great long term faith in Phebos and family On the PE front Yes of course the share price is absurdly low in terms of the latest profits but it is expecting those profits to fall. Many now blame the messengers, the fourth estate that helps uphold democracy and call the powerful to account is under attack by the public, whipped on by the powerful. However I find both sides of arguments are so helpful including explanations for the share price action unlike so many boards where all poster just say their share should be higher and some conspiracy is holding it down rather than an excess of sellers over buyers. So thanks all as ever. Sadly the PGM fall looks like it has a fair way to go so down before up. Now shoot me.
Feynzz, boards like markets and democracies need both views, there is no point in surrounding yourself with like minded opinions, tho most sadly do now. I stay because I will be happy with a 2.5c interim, which is 3% just for this interim, and because the PE is so very low it has taken account of the lower profits coming in my view. I hope that Mike is right, but the great thing about this board is that it tolerates debate. With mining, a small change in demand or supply can greatly affect the price. The big question for Karo and half of Tharisa is if PGM’s continue to fall dramatically because of the small fall in demand, so Mike’s posited 10% is much exceeded. As frequently said, and just now, I remain a holder while expecting lower profits and a lower share price as I am hopeless at timing the market but have great faith in the family and them riding this out so expect the shares to be double or treble…..one day…..just no idea which! In the meantime profits will become nasty especially if Chinese demand means chromium turns