RE: Oister20 Sep 2025 08:48
Eyes on the prize, be nice to see an updated note
We now have: bigger proven resource, JV for benefaction, offtakes and funding MOUs
Opinion & Recommendation - The securing of a $5m grant from the DFC is a commendable achievement for Blencowe and significantly reduces financing risks at Orom- Cross.
We have re-calibrated the PFS published last year from a NPV8 to NPV10 to reflect a higher cost of borrowing world (from $482m to $402m) and applied certain
development/resource (30%), finance (12%) and country (25%) risk factors. The impact of the DFC grant and potential for it to lead to securing project construction funds has resulted in our finance risk being slashed from 40% to 12%. By applying all these risk factors to our NPV10, we calculate a valuation of $185.7m, an increase of 46% on our previous $126.5m estimate.
Using the current no of shares in issue and 100% project interest this would imply a price per share of 73p (prev. 59p). If we factor in the impact of possible share dilution over the next 24-months, we arrive at a 46p valuation. Taking an even more prudent approach and assuming Blencowe ends up with a 51% project interest if a JV partner was bought in, then a 23p value is calculated. Although if the DFC provides significant debt funding to construct a mine, such a severe project dilution may not be needed, instead a smaller valuation
adjustment would be made according to the impact on future cash flows from whatever potential funding solution is provided.