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This year I'm expecting to see 5 structures producing and additional reserves booked from Yelemes Deep, Block 8 and West Shalva.

Could we see an initial 200m barrels booked this year from these five reservoirs, three of which thus far have commercial quantities of flowing oil.

Could Block 8 Reserves equal BNG?

West Shalva acquisition

''On 5 November 2024 we announced that the change of control consent, which was a condition for the completion of the West Shalva acquisition, had been received and that we are now working towards formal completion.''

Way over two months since consent given ZzZzZz..........

Block 8 acquisition

''As previously announced, the licence renewal for one of the three structures at the Block 8 Contract Area has been received.''

You'd have thought with now having a renewed license on the producing structure that the current Block 8 owner (which has been using CASP's drilling company to drill the two new wells) would have restarted production on the two wells by now with CASP confirming in a RNS, perhaps CASP are waiting to confirm this together when testing starts on the second structure, once it's license has been signed-off too - I'd guess though production has already started. I wonder if the two deep B8 structures interval(s) are connected?

These two acquisitions can't be far off...........

Up 25% - there must be a gas leak ;- )

Interestingly (the shallow fire-sale aside circ. $2.20 pboo) CASP's Airshagyl 78m barrels of C1/ C2 Reserves are currently valued at $2.17 billion when sold locally at $36 net pboo with the Yelemes Deep Reserves estimate to add - plus Block 8 in the coming months. Obviously there's more oil than the 78m C1 / C2 Reserves to be proved up and a buyer will have a 25 year license(s) to extract it, so how many bucks would a buyer pay for Airshagyl today? Yelemes Deep I reckon will add at least another 50m C1/ C2 barrels to their Reserves numbers once the 803 Deep Well has finished testing.

Hopefully there's not another $2.20 pboo fire sale on the way and the brokers $8.02 value per barrel is nearer the mark.

AR dosh $14m + $54m +B8 $3m + $7m CE dosh + whatever revenue for 1600 bopd in the bank for the past few months to boot (bank account should be up with little Op's going on).

Approx. £64m

Throw in the license(s) and WS sale signed off - then onto 8 deep wells to drill/ test and a shallow well and new CE charter and a mining deal to boot and....................POP!

Blue,

I don't think CASP can I think CASP will, but you have to remember the geology is very tough to overcome, however they did manage to get to TD on the A8 Deep Well with no incidents and successfully flow test it so they can flow the deeps (A8 Deep Well flowed 120 bopd but deemed none commercial).

Let's hope the super-dooper G70 rig drills the A7 Deep Well to TD and it flows commercial quantities of oil, if it's a duster like the A8 Deep Well then the 78m boo of Airshagyl 1C/ 2C booked Reserves will be in question as they've included the A7 Deep Well in the 78m barrel estimates and it's only half way down. The A8 Deep Well was not included in the Airshagyl Reserves - what happens if the A7 Deep Well can't be either due to having the same outcome as the A8 Deep Well? If the size of the BNG prize is a lot less than originally thought then the Airshagyl structures 78m barrels could be a lot less and sold for $2.20 pboo as with the shallow oil - circ. $170m.............I hope not!

The $800m quoted for Carver to get his $3m bonus may not happen. Like I've said their going to have to drill step out appraisal wells to prove up the oil, 78m boo is a VAST joke.

Carver saying they won't drill any more wells on the BNG structures is bollux - unless they've already been approached having booked the Airshagyl Reserves - hence splitting the licenses and selling the structures separately, Airshagyl being the first to go - if it is sold separately then the sale could take knocking on 12 months to complete as with the shallow oil sale - gonna need a big premium if they don't manage to complete the A5/ A7/ A6 Deep Wells before an offer comes in.

Blue,

An imagination out of this world!

CASP would have to pay out a dividend of around $120 million for 4p, how many years are you talking, lol.

Obviously that won't happen as they need the dosh for Op's/ mining venture etc..

This quarter I'm expecting 3 wells to be tested (licenses permitting), one well on B8 being tested plus the old two wells being reworked/ A6 acid wash/ 803 testing and all the other wells still drilling in Q2.

With lots of needed dosh hitting the bank it's going to be a very busy year - for a change. I don't see any more hurdles to jump like we've seen over the past few years so I'm pretty optimistic for 2025.

For now CASP are in limbo until the licenses/ WS deal have been signed off.

Mike,

I doubt we'll see a dividend anywhere that much per share.

Eg. A $10 million dividend would pay out £.0034 per share, no where near 0.05/ 1p - we got £.000444 on a million quid and we'll se another 100 million shares added to the pot soon (2.35b shares).

I noticed a poster quoting a dividend of 2p-4p per share - that's a $30m-$60m one-off dividend payment from the $72m net shallow sale, some peeps don't have a clue.

I think realistically we'll see a one-off dividend near to $5m if there is a dividend (£4m).

£4m / 2.35m shares = £0.0017

That's four times more than the regular dividends we were getting.

Fu k it let's have the whole $72 million paid out. lol!

Yep, let's hope the more powerful G70 rig can better avoid stuck pipes and bring the A7 Deep Well into production. A new sidetrack on the A5 Deep Well will take 3-4 months to hit TD as with the A7 Deep Well so I'm hoping the A6 Deep Wells acid wash is successful and we can finally see some deep oil production from BNG.

KAZ OM need to pull their socks up and sign off on the deep licences ASAP or we won't be seeing any deep oil until 2H.

Any loans or thoughts of financing are out of the window, neither will happen with the amount of WS/ CE dosh hitting the bank plus production revenue from circ. 1600 bopd until sale completes to boot, the barrels from 802/ 803/ B8 will replace any shallow barrels of oil.

A $5-$10m dividend from the AR/ CE won't break the bank.

Personally I'd rather they put any share buy back dosh into firming up the BNG deep reservoirs, but they have said they'll be looking at buying back shares.

Just a thought re if CASP does start a share buy back program.

Re the WS deal if it goes through will add 100m shares to the shares in issue pot when signed off (possibly another 100m later), if CASP were to buy back 100m shares today it would cost them circ. $4m bucks....$8m at 8p etc.. in effect increasing the WS $15m cost.

If they do decide to buy back shares each month then it would have to be in the tens of million each month to effect the share price and increase sentiment.

How many shares will they be able to reduce the shares in issue pot by and at what cost, would it be worth it?

I suspect a one-off dividend is on its way in Q1-2 from the Shallows sales surplus cash.

Good post SmartyP1.

I now take the broker notes with a very very large pinch of salt. The same broker touted FV for BNG at 102p earlier in 2021-4 and has now dropped his FV to 73p - why?

73p is circ. $2.23 billion for CASP's BNG deep structures.

IF the two BNG deep structures do have circ. 300m boo Reserves as quoted by the broker CASP would have to get approx. $7.50 per barrel - they sold the shallow oil for around $2.20 bucks.

Like I've said CASP will have to prove up the deep BNG oil with more step out wells and sell the oil at a much higher price then they did for the shallows to get anywhere near 73p.

Airshagyl C1/ C2 Reserves 78m boo

SW probably between 5-10m boo - the slightly smaller W next door has 5m boo.

Yelemes Deep 40-60m boo initially?

B8 - we should have an idea in Q1/ 1H,

CASP will have their hands full going back to the 5 deep BNG wells never mind B8/ WS so I don't think we'll see a BNG sale this year, much more drilling needs to be done - unless of course a buyer(s) offers a massive premium for the 'potential oil'. It's going to take a long time to prove up the BNG Reserves to anywhere near 300m barrels of booked oil.

What if they sold the 78m boo of Airshagyl oil for $2-3 bucks?

There's another one hundred million shares about to hit the shares in issue and possibly two hundred million re WS deal.

The broker should explain how he's come up with 102p/ 73p and $8.02 per barrel for the BNG deep oil.

Anyway I'll be dreaming of 73p tonight.

Raise the standard tax-free Personal Allowance from £12,570 to £45,000.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/700391

Vote yes and pass on.

Yes Jimmy, I must doodle harder 😉

Food for thought:

Once the license renewal(s) for Block 8 have been signed-off and the second structure has been tested (hopefully this well flows too - there must be oil shows for them to go ahead and test an interval(s)) there's a very good chance we could see more Reserves being booked in Q1/ 1H on top of BNG's Airshagyl and Yelemes Deep Reserves.

Initial Block 8 oil estimates were between 100m and 400m boo, I'm not sure if those estimates were only for the 2 well producing structure or the whole block? If the second structure flows commercial oil those numbers could increase as they may have done new seismic on top of the existing 3D seismic on the two new structures before drilling last year by the seller?

I doubt we'll see the high end Reserve numbers touted with only three wells drilled on Block 8, but I wouldn't be surprised to see similar Reserves being booked as the initial BNG 1C/ 2C oil estimates.

End of doodling............

...........So yeah I feel the deep reservoirs are not as big as originally thought. If both reservoirs have initially circ. 80m boo each and are sold at a similar price per barrel as the shallows ($2.20 pb) they won't get as much as hoped for for the vast, cough, amount of oil they reckon is there. CASP need at least $4 bucks pboo for the deep oil or a massive premium for the 'potential' oil or a few step out wells to get fair value, imo.

CASP have said they will use the BNG rigs to drill Block 8/ West Shalva that's 3 rigs leaving the G70/ G40 rigs to drill A7/ and A5 sidetrack, hopefully we will see some movement on B8/ AR shortly.

Anyway just doodling as per................

Happy New Year everyone.

WRT the AR deal being delayed another two months.

I think the delay is mainly down to the OM re still pending the shallows sign-off - as we know they move at a glacial pace, I don't think there's a problem with the $54m bank loan though it could be pending the OM sign-off first. AR will imo still be going over the water influx data and the 815 Well result to boot so yes it could be that AR want more time to go over the seismic/ flow data etc., but the deal can not go ahead anyway until the OM/ bank loan have been signed-off which is why we're seeing a further delay imo - not down to AR doubts is my reasoning.

The licenses don't look to be happening anytime soon to boot given the OM's untimely sign-off history.

Without the licenses signed-off soon BNG operations are going to be kicked down the road re A6 acid wash/ A7 re-drilling restarted and the all important A5 Deep Well sidetrack - CE / production dosh in the bank today is enough to crack on with these wells once the licenses have been sorted.

WRT the West Shalva deal.

This can't be far off, but again it's down to OM/ UAE sign-offs - hopefully the ice sheet is melting faster than the north pole.

Block 8 license.

Someone wake me up when the OM have signed-off on the second structures license and the whole of Block 8 can start testing/ drilling again. Paperwork is obviously still in the OM in-tray.

Another slow start, but hopefully 1H will come good once dosh/ licenses/ deal done.

I do have one concern re BNG deeps.

I'm afraid the size of the prize has shrunk.

Airshagyl - The A8 Deep well was none commercial and probably at the boundary of the reservoir, the A6 Deep Well has no flow rates to date and why/ how can they include the A7 Deep Well in the booked Reserves being only half way down - no signs of oil reported to date? The circ. 78m boo of 1C/ 2C oil booked at Airshagyl is a pittance of the 300m boo Reserves originally touted - the structure is 58km2 but the oil reservoir is based around the commercial A5 Deep well which is a couple of kilometers from the other A wells - CASP say there will be no further wells drilled, hopefully thy mean exploration wells and not appraisal wells? They will have to drill more wells (appraisal wells) to step out and prove up a wider 'immediate drainage vicinity (IDV)' if they are to book much more Reserves (a FDP after A5-A6-A7 wells?).

Yelemes Deep - The 801 Deep Well is a duster (amazing with 4 very thick intervals) reducing the IDV though the two wells that have flowed commercial quantities of oil (802/ 803) could prove initially as much as Airshagyl in their IDV - these two wells are a couple of KM away from each other similar in distance to the Airshagyl wells - the structure is 36km2. Again if they are to increase Reserves they are going to have to drill step out wells (FDP after 802/ 803 testing?).

Gritster,

Your reply is irony at it's best.

The current MC is around $90m, remember there's $14m, $54m coming from shallows sale (plus $1m pm for 4 months thereafter) and circ. $6m+ from the CE hire, all of which should be released from Escrow in January.

What effect will the announcement(s) of receiving $74m do to sentiment and the MC? Sentiment is going to drive the share price upward shortly on the back of cash in the bank and pending paperwork signed off across the blocks.

I don't know why I bother but there you go, enjoy the ride.............

Gritster,

If you and the idiot who ticked your post up don't think the share price is going to move above 3.8p within six months then you should sell up now and come back in May.

But you won't will you, tell us why that is?

Gritter,

"What is going to change that in the near future then?"

FFS, can't you read what I've posted in this thread re the Q1/ Q2 many significant 'individual' events that will each effect the share price on their own merits, does that not compute?

Best you move on instead of spending a 12th year here posting nonsense, CASP is about to reset.

Get ready for enlightenment.