Member Info for SomeIdiot

A car hit my dog yesterday. Why would Bamps do this???

I'm surprised at the lack of activity in general. Tin isn't a glamorous metal by any means, but it's a very hot commodity at the moment, there's few ways to play it, and this company is backed by a significant tin miner.

The payment is exactly as set out in the RNS on 24th April? Further payments will be received when the buyer lists on the stock exchange (in shares) and if LCCM enters commercial production (in cash).

Duster, you need to understand that Mike doesn't set the share price. There's not a computer where he types it in every morning. He's not wrong that DFS projects often trade at 20% of NPV, but that's not the case for us right now and there's not a button that he can simply press to change that.

No, I think he's the same? Both before and after DFS he was saying they're targeting end of Q1 2026 for funding, so there's no change there.

I think you misheard, he said P1 is small (as it is) but profitable,.not hardly profitable. And I think you're misunderstanding his point about some customers wanting to see the mine operate before committing to offtake.

Nice that there's no discount and only a handful of broker warrants, it's a big show of confidence in the DFS. Does anyone know who it was made to?

I would love to hear from a seller why they're selling now, of all times (and hopefully for a better reason than "it didn't instantly triple on the DFS!"). What makes someone see a $1bn NPV, which was at the top end of expectations, and think "No, not good enough"?

Or is this just ITM warrants (which is all of them) washing out for a quick buck?

Yes, I'd be surprised if they did any more drilling prior to obtaining development financing. If no-one wants to finance this based on a $1bn DFS, extra reserves won't change their mind. The focus has to be on financing and binding off takes.

Exactly. Someone who bought in last week was up 20% at points today - not everyone's a long-term investor and some people will have been thrilled with a 20% return in less than a week and will have sold out. Long-term investors need to wait for news to trickle out to institutional investors/family offices who can take a bigger position and drive the price up, but those investors probably weren't up at 7am this morning frantically F5-ing the RNS page. It'll need marketing to get them interested, which is part of what Mike is going to be doing now.

Jesus christ guys, give it some time. Did you think it was going to shoot up to 300% in a day?

Incredible, far better than I was expecting. I'd love to see the study itself.

Glad it was helpful candler, and agreed it's a huge green tick - I don't think Blencowe had disclosed reserves figures before, so I was privately concerned that even the upgraded reserve wouldn't be able to cover the volumes mined in the PFS. I'm chuffed that it looks like we'll be able to. Personally, I'm hoping that the DFS at least maintains the PFS NPV. I know a lot of people are hoping for more, but the increase to discount rate is significant and can't be avoided, and I don't know how the SPG plant will be modelled which makes it tough to guess. I'd be happy with $500m and anything higher than that would be fantastic.

I urge everyone here to go back and look at the PFS announcement, calculate how many tonnes it mined (hint: 14 year mine life multiplied by average of 1.6 million tonnes per year) and compare that to today's reserves announcement which can be included in the DFS (hint: they're pretty much the same). I'm not trying to do down the stock, but people need to manage their expectations. The share price is falling today when it should be rising thanks to an announcement that said precisely what it needed to, because some people thought that infill drilling was going to double the resource size when infill drilling is not supposed to do that. Inflating expectations does nothing to help the share price.

Panda, I don't think that's the case. According to the PFS announcement (https://blencoweresourcesplc.com/2022/07/18/pfs-results-july-2022/), the PFS assumed a 14-year mine life with an average tonnes mined annually of 1.6 million. 14 * 1.6 = 22.4 million tonnes mined over life of mine, which isn't materially different from the new reserve estimate. I think they must have been including inferred resources in the PFS mine plan.

I don't think the DFS will see much of an increase in mine life, if any. As far as I can tell, the PFS assumed production of the vast majority of the resource, and given that the resource hasn't increased substantially that won't be reflected in the mine life (assuming annual production rates in the DFS are identical to the PFS, which may not be the case). The drilling results received to date and reflected in today's JORC update were about increasing the confidence of the resource estimate such that the resource could be upgraded to reserves and included in the DFS, NOT about increasing the resource size.

To be clear, I'm not trying to deramp, BRES is my largest holding! My comments were aimed at a couple of people I've seen here and on Telegram speculating that the JORC resource will be 50%-100% bigger and that it will increase the mine life in the DFS sufficiently to double NPV on its own. I want to manage expectations because I don't think that's going to happen based on 1) the drilling results that have been received so far, which were mostly designed to upgrade the resource, not increase it, as I understand it; and 2) the fact that it looks like the PFS included most of the resource as-is, including the inferred resource.

NPV uplift in the DFS should come from cost control and higher selling prices from the processing plant, imo.

Sorry, accidentally posted before I was ready! I agree that's what the guidance says, but in reality I've seen it done, including one PFS that was 100% inferred resources - it was caveated to hell, of course.

Thanks Tucket. I'm aware of the difference between resources and reserves, but when I look at the PFS announcement (https://blencoweresourcesplc.com/2022/07/18/pfs-results-july-2022/) I can't reconcile the production volumes with just the indicated resource. Most of the inferred resource has to be in there as well, which makes me think the DFS won't actually have much of a volume/mine life uplift, since the drilling results received are about upgrading the inferred resource. Has the company ever formally announced what the JORC reserve is?

I've seen a couple of posters say that you can't include infected resources in a PFS. Speaking as someone who works in a related industry to mining, I agree that's what the guidance

This is something I'm not clear on - I think they might have included more or less the full resource in the PFS (~25mt resource, and I calculate a PFS mined tonnage of about 22mt, being 14 years life × 1.6mtpa average) so I'm not sure a higher quality resource of the same size will change much (or where an increase in mine life would come from). Rather, the biggest contribution to NPV will be from the processing plant.