Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Cornerstone own 7.6% of Solgold which is 7.6% of 85% of ENSA = 6.46% of the asset. Plus they have an interest in 15% of ENSA if they meet their contractual obligations regarding funding up to FS and beyond at the rate of 15% of ongoing mine development costs. Total 21.46% MAX. That obligation doesn't finish till the mine is in production.
They only have 7.6% interest in Solgold. The 15% of ENSA is not theirs yet. They could lose that. That is why they cannot raise finance against it.
After the Porvenier find I am raising my fair value assessment for Solgold from 80p - £1.35 up to £2 to £3.50. Anything less than £2 and my 0.1% of Solgold will be voting against a takeover.
Hello ICE , I agree under normal circumstances you wouldn't consider stopping but given the accountants are all queing up to **** themselves I wonder who will win the tug-o-war ? We will find out soon enough. Either way it looks like a company making find so far.
Well it looks like the system is wider at depth than they estimated. Lets see if they are still in mineralisation at 750m . If they are then they have a difficult choice to make but I reckon they will abandon the hole for now and reset the drill to -80 to get a pin in the core as quickly as possible because there are only 10 days till the handcuffs come off. NM is cutting it fine but the science seems to be on his side at the moment. That Dr Garwin is a bloody genius. IMHO.
If you examine the sectional diagram in the RNS you will see that hole 1 begins from a fairly central pad and was angled to probe (and hence define as far as practical ) the boundary of the shell as predicted from magnetics and channel sampling analysis.
The same analysis would also have been used to give predictions for where the central core might be.
So i would be pretty confident that the pad was located such that it would also be able to service multiple drill holes. And in particular because of its central location the second or third holes could be angled more vertically towards the core.
I believe the first drill has been a pleasant surprise for Solg in as much as it has hit exactly what they were hoping for ( very rare -Alpala took 5) so they now see a window of opportunity to bolster their defences quicker than they could have hoped for.
All imho.
If as reported the visible copper sulphide mineralisation observed from 15.9m to a depth of 525.3m is indeed 6% chalcopyrite that would put us in the range of 2% Cu.
Even and average of half that would be incredible. The more i delve into the RNS detail the better it looks.
If you look at the PDF which was part of yesterdays RNS you will see that hole 1 only targeted the shell of the magnetic signature. So a sort of glancing blow to gauge the extent of the deposit.
Ben Whistler reported "PDH-20-001 hole is drilling across the upper periphery of the core of this porphyry copper-gold system. These are characteristic features of the upper periphery of the core of SolGold's Alpala Deposit and many porphyry copper-gold systems globally."
So the best is probably yet to come.
According to DR Garwin "This porphyry system is characterized by a robust geological setting, geochemical expression and magnetic signature that compares favourably to large, economic and gold-rich porphyry copper systems elsewhere." .
So when he says "robust" i see that as an indicator that the patterns he is seeing in the cores is holding up well against his standard models. Which in turn has enabled him to convince management to go balls out and get 6 rigs on site.
He goes onto say "mineralisation observed in the first drill hole, to date, illustrates the downward continuation of chalcopyrite mineralisation discovered in Cacharposa Creek and highlights the potential for higher copper and gold grades at depth." .
If you watch the video that Pinot posted earlier Dr Garwin explains the science behind why it is reasonable to expect higher grades at depth that supports that statement. The geometry is important.
Another interesting point is the potential scale of this prospect. From my rough comparison I would say that this covers a square are two to three times Alpala . So it will be interesting to see from the next planned drills (three aiming at the edges and one through the middle) how accurate the magnetic mapping has been. Wouldn't it be nice to see one of the edge drills go through high grade core .
As i said a month or so ago the best short term defence would be to get top drill results from either Pov or La H. Certainly has put the cat among the pigeons . Or whatever the Ecuadorian equivalent is of a Pidgeon ( and a cat for that matter)
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Very good to see news today, not before time .
NM is sailing close to the wind regarding news release and the need to defend the company. I am sure he would have preferred to have been in a position (without covid) to be a couple of months ahead of this current curve. But good news nonetheless.
Unfortunately I fear that a couple of months is probably going to be the sort of delay we are looking at for the Alpala PFS. i am pretty certain it will come too late to hit the 15th October. (end of Nov would be my estimate) .
However all is not lost . The big boys will have worked out the likely potential of the SOLG tenements already(as have the many PI's on this board). But equally they know that they need the likes of SOLG to prove this stuff so i personally dont think they will be in any particular rush to move. They have the cash to splash but the decision makers will be looking for certainty and in particular an independent and robust assessment from the PFS NPV. As we all know it is the the bean counters that decide if a bid is made for anything.
Personally , as an LTH of nearly 7 years standing I would love to reap the rewards for my patience and investment. While I have done very well on paper I could do with a decent drop kick share price increase into a semi comfortable retirement.
On the Quady / Earthing discussions (if i can call them that - i feel we are not quite into the realms of a Dune pangalactic epic {or indeed Gargleblaster} just yet, but its early days) I think there is no answer. i am split .
I believe NM wants to take this to production and make this his lifetime legacy.
One final word NM - Please let Ingo lead on the webcasts in future. You have seen the share price move , you know it makes sense.
All IMHO of course.
Hello Andywest.
The only thing I would say is that Franco Nevada will always cut a deal so that they make a good solid return. The cash flows modelled from MRE3 show construction repayment in 4 years so that requires $675m profit after costs in those early years . FN repayments dont start till after the mine is repaid . The exact dates are in the presentations somewhere !
So on that basis they NSR will start at about 6.75m pa. Repayment in 15 years not adjusted for FN's cost of capital (which will be a lot less than SOLG could achieve because they have spread then risk across many projects).
Mine life is 50+ years but with diminishing grades but a good cash cow for a long time. They will rake in in excess of $250m and potentially a lot more if Gold increases in price.
The 55% figure comes from the combination of 40% income Tax and 25% extra tax if your pot has exceeded the lifetime allowance. E.G 1000 withdrawn taxed at 40% leaves 600. The 600 is then taxed again at 25% (150) leaving 450. Hence the 55% effective tax rate. If you have not yet used up your 25% tax free allowance (lifetime allowance * 25%) then the calculation is different. e.g. 1000 withdrawn less 25% tax free = 750 taxable (minus 40% x 750 (300 tax) minus 25% extra tax on 450 (750-300) = 112.50 . Total tax = 412.50 . Effective tax rate of 41.25%. The SIPP provider will normally take the tax before they pay you the balance and will assume a 40% base rate . You then have to claim any overpayment back through your tax return. If you have other income and go into the higher bracket then you will owe the tax man even more.
FYI - Any regular small pension , maybe from an old employement is also counted against the LTA at 20 time the annual payment + any tax free lump sums that may have been taken when you took that pension also count towards the 25% tax free limit , it doesn't have to have come from a SIPP
This scheme was introduced to stop very rich people paying loads of money into their pensions (like millions and millions) to reduce their tax bills. Unfortunately the lifetime allowances have been repeatedly reduced to the point where now many professional people (doctors being the obvious example) are getting hit.
It does have the effect that many SIPP investors (like me) have much more risky investments in their SIPP once it starts approaching the LTA limits. After all most of the money at risk is the tax mans not mine :)
I tell you the bastards get you all ways. I wonder how long before they start attacking stock and shares ISA's with some devious scheme.
So I have 15 grand of the tax mans money invested here just for the fun of it. I hope he does really well :)
For what it is worth , my 0.1% would be voting to reject a £1 a share offer at this stage. £1.50 - £2 and I would start to be swayed (for lots of reasons including old age ! ) .
But I would really love to get some results from drills at Porvenier and La Huaca to give us more ammo for defence. I have a feeling that the six month delay from covid has scupper Mathers master plan and squeezed him right into the up coming BHP release point before he can get meaningful news out.
Hello Quady , I dont think NM has any intention of selling if he can possibly avoid it. Unless of course an offer he could not refuse comes in. But i think that offer would need to be very large indeed, probably in the multiple pounds per share for him to recommend a sale.
Failing that it will need to be a hostile bid to shift him i would think.