Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Upfront Disclosure : Been invested here for a very long time and done very well but becoming annoyed at the missed deadlines and the creeping timescale.
My view is that the Franco deal has established a baseline case for funding. $100m=%1 , or to scale it up $1Bn = 10% Alpala lifetime stream.
As the project moves forward towards PFS and DFS that 10% (equivalent stream cost to Solg) should reduce (less risk and more resources defined) towards the discount rate of the DCF (likely to be 6% to 8%).
BHP could take the whole 30% stream to fund mine dev if they wanted to , but they wont want to pay that much. I am sure they would have been very keen to take another 500m shares at 20p given the chance. Plus , for that sort of funding they would traditionally have been getting control of the whole shooting match(not just a slice of Alpala revs).
And keep in mind those shares would have been Solgold shares not just shares of the Alpala resource. Nice work if you can get it.
The industry has evolved a lot over the last 10 years and steaming finance is the relatively new disruptive competitor that the big established miners would rather just went away. The old monopolistic or JV model suits them and their established business models just fine. But times have changed and I would hope that Nick/Ingo could probably strike several 3% -5% stream deals against Alpala alone and still leave the rest of the portfolio intact.
I am still holding but have sold down a lot in recent weeks (in share #'s down from mid 7 figs to lower 7 figs) , not because i dont think Solgold will 3-6 bag from here , but because it could take them a good while to do it. And i am looking to be able to rinse and repeat a few double baggers in that same time. Its all Risk v's Reward v's Timescale and the timescale part of the Solgold equation is not looking as good as it was for me as when NM/JW talked about having the PFS ready in three weeks time (that was mid September)
All IMHO - and I hope i am wrong about the timescale and Solg hit the GO FOR LAUNCH button asap.
Cgp wont care about dilution. They are trying to avoid the situation where they have to stump up cash for the alpala mine dev or lose their 15%. Even if solgold issued another 3bn shares they would still have 15% of Alpala.
But they are in a really dodgy position. A new board controlled by BHP or Newcrest could still squeeze them out (which i think is what Nick would do). A lot depends on the personal relationships behind the scenes. Which we dont know about.
Not ended yet covgaz. Switched my solgold slice 70/30 into ggp and ufo so doing alright there.
But i do still like solg , i may be wrong but i feel the stock still has legs . Hopes for a 5 bag not entirely unrealistic in the next 3 years. As i said , decision after PFS to rebuy or not.
Fyi- I am also keen on Hecla , Pictet robotics and pictet clean energy - slow but steady burners. Worth a look for a few spare k.
All just my view......
Although i am kicking on in years , having been invested in solg for 16.6% of my life , the value proposition for me is to hold on for two or three more years. A 50p to 80p sellout next year would not make me happy after 10+ years . Having said that i am probably not typical have done well here having sliced over £250k solg profit out of the ISA and now on a free carry of well over 1m solg shares.
I just dont like the idea of pi’s getting the pizz and potential upside ripped out of them so that the cornerstone board and other well connected parties can save their skin and get mates rates in the aftermath.
I like what Mather et al have done so far, although i too am frustrated by slow progress this year. I will certainly keep my stake until after PFS and decide if it is in my interests to slice a bit more once i have the PFS info. Or maybe buy some more.
Solgold have an enviable portfolio of assets. Two already with published finds . One ,Alpala , possibly one of the top ten discoveries of all time.
Copper has rising demand and falling inventories = prices increasing. Ev and electrification will add to the demand.
Continued FED Money printing = precious metals prices increasing. Gold threatening to push into 2000’s
On fundamentals Solgold looks like a good safe bet to me at current price. I have a 3 year target valuation of £1.30 .
Disclaimer and context info:
This is not investment advice it is all in my humble opinion.
Disclosure: i have a reasonably substantial position in Solgold (over 3m shares) and i have been invested here for more than 5 years.
Keeping the liability off the balance sheet means that on paper they are worth more. The event which will trigger the requirement to include it has not happened yet so they are legally allowed to do that. Mentioning it as a note also mitigates any potential suggestions of a cover up.
They are continuing to clutch at straws for as long as possible imho.
Based on JW commentary in a recent web session very loosely he said "delayed by about 2 or 3 weeks" then there might be a fair chance it will released next week. I am hoping NPV will be pushing 6Bn. That may be optimistic but i would not rule it out of the realms of possibility.
Also POV 002 was at 3m on 12th . Should be at 100m now and 250m by the middle of next week. An interim update on visuals at that time would be give helpful support to SP.
I remember watching a Steve Garwin video on UTube a while ago when he said it was generally possible to estimate copper grades with 10% or so just by eye and experience. So 0.7% or 0.63% as an estimate gives them a very good handle on what they have found. But they obviously cant publish their guessimates as official grades no matter how accurate they are.
Also regarding Pov 001, if the lab dont provide an assay till they have done the whole hole then thats their business. Its not market sensitive until its made available to solgold. (leaks not withstanding)
Imho.
Hi Easyp - my opinion (DYOR) is that the recent SP has been driven by a number of factors. The catalyst was the first news from Provenier supported by the continuation of the drilling in hole one because of the unexpectedly good news of continued mineralisation down hole. The news yesterday that it was stopped at nearly 900m but still in mineralisation was in my opinion and endorsement of their decision to keep going in hole 001. As i suspected and posted at the time they have made the switch to repoint the drill for hole 002 while still in mineralisation ( a comment which was poo pooed at the time - "Nobody in their right mind would do that" - or words to that effect ). NM and JW et al have a very good idea about what is down there and are doing their best to get as much good news out to the market as soon as sensible.
The other big driver is the impending PFS. If that comes in much higher than the 4.5B NPV already predicted (i am predicting 6 myself) then we could see a significant rerate by commentators. At PFS the % of NPV which could reasonably be expected to be reflected in the share price moves up a step i believe (although its not an exact science).
Clearly other regional exploration news just adds to the positive story.
Personally I am not expecting a BHP bid any time soon because i can't see that they need to make a move at this stage . Clearly I dont know how many PI's are buying based on their own bid expectations. I suspect there must be a few opportunistic PI's involved now the judging by the panicky price action we saw yesterday.
However with continuing positive exploration results and the final Alpala feasibility study BHP could come under enormous pressure to act for fear of losing out on possibly the biggest 'set of' Cu/Ag discoveries in recent times.
IYou throw the poker table open if a thirdparty starts exploratory discussions with NM which , in the fullness of time , all things being equal etc etc etc leads to a potential JV on one of the projects (never say never ) then all hell could break loose.
Here is hoping :)
All IMHO of course. Do not take any of my ramblings as investment advice. Always DYOR
They pushed the POV_1 drill further than they were planning but for good reason. That is looking like it could be one hell of a big system.
Will drill two show the same level of mineralisation we saw in Alpala Holes 5 or 12 ? Fingers crossed for a good visual result by the start of next week. Could be at 250m by this time next week. That could be enough to crack open a bottle or twelve.
Of course drilling will continue no matter what goes on with the corporate shenanigans and if there are good grades of copper/gold in them there hills then news will flow as quick as NM can turn the tap on.
I would like to see news on drill one at Pov. Has it completed and has it been realigned to -80 degrees already. Or maybe hole one has been extended due to larger than expected halo. Notcsure whichvwould be best for us ?
La huaca - some update , any update as long as it is not a dud hole.
Rio update - Coldcuts post raises some tantalising possibilities that could put a rocket under the sp if they pan out.
CGP takeover fails.
No bid from BHP.
Maybe news of another prospect starting drilling.
Personally i think BHP have already been speaking to NM. I would like to think that the “Never ever a JV” statement has some latitude in it especially if NM can get an option to still follow his dream but BHP (or Newcrest , or a.n. Other ) can be persuaded there is enough to go around on a sue by site basis maybe. So Bhp fund 1.5 Bn Alpal mine dev for 15% - 20% NSR which Solg will buy mostly from CGP for 3.5m after their pips have run out of squeak.
Dreaming out loud !
With no email informing of an RNS this morning i held off looking at the SP till a few minutes ago. I did think we would see an RNS today given the strong end yesterday . But very please to see substantial rise without and news this morning.
My view is that all the activity and subsequent steady release of news is all part of the CITI defensive plan. As is the timing of the CGP bid and expiry date. Putting the squeeze on nicely i would say.
I am looking forward to pin two going into Porvenier. The assays from that could be a real order of magnitude game changer.
AIMHO - Onwards and upwards.
Sorry to say I already sliced off the top 15% at 29.5 just by not paying attention. I had a sell order in with HL that i installed with a top up at 18.11 and completely forgot about it. So i dropped 235k shares as the price went sailing past . Brought the average down a fair whack and got me back 1/3 of my stake but wish I hadn't made such a schoolboy error.
Next stop for me is £1.50 for another 15% slice. That will put me £150k in profit with 1.4m shares still in the pot
After that god only knows. But i would be happy to swap the rest 2 for 1 for Barrick shares given half a chance.
Off topic - I was wondering , by way of a thought experiment , if there might be an opportunity to do a JV and earn-in with one of the big boys on a Solgold subsiduary. They have Carnegie Ridge (Rio & Blanca) or Green Rock (Porvenier) already under starters orders.
I bet the tax situation hasn't been solidified on those bad boys yet.
All IMHO