Member Info for SocialistB

Part 2

From that perspective, Newcrest are gaining 75% for peanuts and only giving up on 25% of a potential fantastic asset.

But for Greatland Gold, 25% still offers a HUGE growth potential. Enough to keep (most) of their shareholders happy:-)

With all that in mind, I do not think that it is highly likely that Newcrest is going to make an offer for the outstanding 25% at either Goliath et al. or Havieron. (I am conveniently ignoring the 5% they can buy at Havieron)

If you were in Newcrest shoes, would you be happy with a 70-75% ownership of 2 tier 1 mines for just a few hundred millions or would you be hell-bent on getting up to a 100% ownership, but in the process create a lot of debt?
(in the above scenario Greatland Gold continues to be a great, quiet and affable partner)

Part 1
Good evening comrades:-)
I’d like to thank you for a good debate so far.

I HAVE to see the Juri-JV as primarily a defensive strategical move and everything else as wonderful side offerings.

Otherwise I’ll go crazy over giving up 75% of Goliath, should it turn out to be as huge as we are dreaming about.

The amount of cash Greatland Gold had, the amount of cash that Greatland Gold could raise prior to the Havieron deal with Newcrest would have been paltry.
Despite some fantastic drill results.
For that reason, 70-75% of Havieron had to be on the table. (and just look what that deal have done for us in 2020)

For me, there was no need for a rush to make the Juri-JV (unless it was a defensive move)

And if you’re not in a desperate situation, there is a good likelihood you can get a deal on better terms.
And even if it was only 10% extra, we could have maintained of a GIGANTIC Goliath, that would most certainly be very profitable over the next many decades.

I find that Greatland Gold was in a much stronger position pre-Juri-JV then they were
pre-Havieron-JV, and therefore could have raised 50 million or more relatively easy.

And if I am not wrong about that, and Greatland Gold could have raised 50 million and more, so they could pay their part of the mine and do some serious drilling at Goliath, then there must have been a more important reason for the Juri-JV.

And what I always come back to, is the protection it gives us against a low ball offer before we start to be cash generating.

Is Goliath to big to handle for even Newcrest?
Well, if you have to empty the license within 20 years, then YES, it probably is.
Then it might be a good idea to carve it up among many major mining companies.

But does it have to be emptied within 20-30 years?
NO.

So who ever takes it on, could potential be mining there for a hundred years at a moderate speed, and thereby serve the local community well.

Could Greatland Gold either on their own, or on a better % term with Newcrest, pull that of with income from Havieron, and an experienced man like Shaun Day on board.

I firmly believe so.

So a very intriguing question for me is, who should we have feared a low ball offer from the most?

It could be anyone of the majors of course.

But my money is on Newcrest.

By giving them 75% of a potential GIGANTIC Goliath for peanuts, they have been pacified enough not to go ahead with a low ball offer, and leave Scallywag alone.
For now, at least. (GH sounded very enthusiastic about the fact Greatland Gold still had a 100% ownership in Scallywag)

On top of that, Newcrest have ensured that they still have a fine working relationship with the BOD of Greatland Gold.

Much better then, alienating a BOD who have a faithful following and might campaign against a takeover offer, claiming they can create more value over the years.
If you are just patient enough.

Sitting here and reading Bamps calculations, with some kind of bitter taste in my mouth and “forcing” myself to be happy.

Why.

Well we gave 75% of that number away for a paltry few millions in the Juri-JV.

By no account can that be called good business, when looked at purely from that perspective.

Yet still, I think it could potentially be the soundest decision Greatland Gold ever made.

And this is where I think everyone should be yelling: “how can giving 75% of 19,200,000,000 away for pebbles be considered a good business?”

Some will point to the fact that the share price have risen from the 23-25p to now 35-37p mark, since the announcement.
That has certainly been good for anyone who bought into GGP in the 20p era. (and everybody else)
Or for day traders or investors who only have short investment horizon in this share.

But it should be obvious to everyone that getting 100% of the revenue from Goliath compared to just 25% would be so much more profitable. (admitted, it would not happen for another 10 years, if Newcrest was not onboard)

But in my opinion, if, and it is a big IF, we assume that Bamps calculations are more correct then they are wrong. Then it would have been worth waiting for.
After all, Greatland Gold has had their tenements in Tasmania since 2005 – 2006. And are still holding on to them.

But this is where the sound part of the strategy comes in.

Assuming that it is not just dust that is present at Goliath and that Bamps calculations are just the tip of the iceberg, then Greatland Gold would not exist 10 years from now.

We would have been bought out long long before, shortly after Goliath starts to prove itself up.

Maybe at 80p, 100p, 120p or £2 (ask yourself, when would you gladly take up an offer)

It can still happen.

But at least it looks like the BOD have bought us some time, with the Juri-JV manoeuvre.

I am sure that Shaun Day, has known about the Juri-JV deal way before it was announced to us mortal shareholders, and decided that there was still plenty for him to work with.

My expectations are great. While he was at Northern Star, the company grew astronomically.
I would like to see that here as well.

And with just 25% of Goliath still potentially being worth several Havieron’s, well the future is golden as long as we are not bought out at a paltry low offer.

So hold tight on those shares of yours, they are almost literally worth their weight in gold.

@Aprogerson. Don't get me wrong here, I wish nothing but the best for Wishbone and the investors over there.
In fact I envy them quite a bit and kicks myself that I did not invest in them 2-3 months ago, but not in my wildest dreams could I have dreamt of their astronomical rise, just based on hope so far.

What appears to be clear, is that the market do not act in the justified way you suggest, unfortunately.

I really thought that was Rincon Resources and thereby Gunsynd that was going to experience that, based on the drilling results we already got and the ones to come.
I thought that the only thing that was holding us back, was Rincon not being listed.
They are now, and Rincon is well funded for the near future.

Yet still, the market have not been kind to us.

And as you pointed out, we have all the other IPO's in the near future.

Something that is very positive, but the share price do not reflect this.

So when the listing of Rincon Resources could not propel us to stardom instantly, then which one of the other IPO's can?

I would love for any one of them to be able to do it, but I am afraid that there is nothing but patience and more patience that is going to drive the share price up.

I do not see that the share % we have in any of the other IPO's (except Rogue Baron) being able to be the driving force.

So, I am afraid that it is the long, slow but steady haul, that is going to take us there.

And that is when the question enters my mind again: Have we hit the new rock bottom here at 1.80 pence or is it likely that we will fall further?

@Slipperyslip
10 pence, yes it would be nice and I also think it and more are achievable.

But only long term.

However I would love to be proven wrong and see that price in Q1 of 2021.

But how. What would facilitate that rise?

I thought it would be the listing of Rincon Resources that would propel us up there before the end of 2020.
Unfortunately that has not happened yet, and with just a few trading day’s left, it is very unlikely to happen.

If we assume that we will continuously be trading well below our NAV and that it is Rincon Resources alone that is going to propel us to stardom then Rincon Resources would have to have an astronomical rise in 2021.

Just some matchbox head calculations here with rounded up numbers. Were Gunsynd owns 20% instead of the real 16% and the A$ is half the value of the £, and Gunsynd have 400 million shares in circulation.

At 10 pence Gunsynd would have a Mcap of £40 million.
At a 20% (which is more then we own) ownership, Rincon Resources would have to worth £200 million or double up to A$ 400 million (by the terms set out above)
And that is just to reach the NAV of Gunsynd, so if we are going to go by what history tends to indicate, that we are priced well below NAV, then A$ have to be way in excess of A$ 400 Million for Rincon Resources.

Will Rincon Resources be able to achieve that with some drilling here and there throughout 2021, I have my reservations.

Will we get to the 10 pence mark, I certainly think and hope so. But it will take time. And it will likely include good news from our Oyster Oil asset and Rogue Baron.

Although, should Rincon Resources be so lucky to be able to convince Gervaise Heddle to join the BOD, then all bets are off.
We could potentially achieve 10 pence, in hours on sentiment alone.

Part 2.

Well, Wishbone has over the last couple of months shown that it can multi bag several times, just on hope alone, neither Rincon Resources or Gunsynd have shown the same capability.
Also, if they strike gold, they get to hold onto it 100% (at least at this stage)

But some things are also conveniently ignored.

They very likely have to raise more cash to be able to pay for further exploration.
It is not given that they are going to find a “gold mine” that is financial viable.

That risk taking seems to be more appealing to many of us folks here on AIM.

So that raises the question how are we going to make money on Gunsynd?

Best answer from me is patience.

Patience, patience and more patience.

Unless the Brexit deal, is going to have a miraculous effect on Gunsynd and the share market in general, then I think it will be a long time before we can turn a significant profit from today’s price.

In fact, I am worried that it will fall further from today’s share price in the region of 1.8 pence.

Around the 22nd of December more then 3 million shares was expected to hit the market, question is if that, is what drove the share price down to 1.8 pence and if we can still expect to see a further fall.

And if we do see a further fall, how low is it likely to go?
1.5 pence, 1.3 pence or even lower?

This share is likely to always be trading way underneath it’s NAV, if it’s history is something to go by.
The day we are likely to first really see a good profit is when we either start getting dividends from our assets or sell them and pay the profit as a special dividend.

But if we are to see our assets through to full fruition, to obtain maximum value that is likely to be years in the future.

And if I am right about why there is no more traction in Gunsynd then there is, then the lack of patience and excitement will drive the share price lower then the 1.8 pence region we are currently trading at.

By the end of the month Angold are likely to be listed, but we own less then 1 % of the company, will that be the instant game changer?

At some point in 2021, Rogue Baron will list on AQUIS stock exchange, if all goes to plan this time around. But will the fact that they have already sold about 6000 bottles that have not yet reached American soil be a game changer?

What do you think?

Part 1.

We have now come one question closer to what it takes for Gunsynd to take off.

And unfortunately, so far it has not been Rincon Resources listing on the ASX.

Thursday/Friday the 17-18th we were trading around the 2.5 pence mark.
Most likely in anticipation of Rincon Resources listing on ASX the following Monday, December 21st.

Even though the listing of Rincon Resources did more then fine, as there was an increase of about 50% in their share price.
And despite the fact, Gunsynd managed to remain the single largest shareholder with 16% of the company, Gunsynd’s share price have taken a nose dive.

There seems to be a pattern here. As the same thing happened in the summer of 2019 when we were expecting and finally got confirmation about Oyster Oil.

Based on history, it seems that this is a share, where you are better of selling on news and buy on facts. (but hopefully one day that will change)

Over all the years that I have been invested here, there has always been a broad consensus that we were trading way below our NAV.

And by the looks of it, it will remain like that for years to come.

Mr. Market, just does not like us, here at Gunsynd.

I really, really hoped, and thought that this time around, it would be different.

But it was not.

I cannot help to wonder why, and the best conclusion I can come up with, are the breed of investors here on AIM.

There must be to much of a gambling nature, installed in to many of us.

When you compare us to Wishbone for instance, we know that Rincon Resources got gold in the ground and we also know where, and there might still be many more places that can be found on Rincon Resources huge acreage.

Yet still, it is Wishbone’s share price that is flying and multi bagging over and over again.

One on hand, you have a company with 16% of a given asset. (Rincon Resources)
It is quite de-risked.
It is not a question of, is there gold present on the tenement, or if it is economical feasible to get to it. (the first tranche, is almost literally below surface)
However, Rincon Resources have not given any indication that they will just get the diggers and a tumbler in like they do on some gold rush programs on TV.
They have instead made it clear they will spend a couple of years to prove up the asset.

I guess that is not so appealing to the gambler nature in many investors here on AIM.
It is kind of boring, with a waiting game like that.

On the other hand, you have Wishbone, who used to trade in the 1 – 2 pence region, from the beginning of 2020 and up to some time in August 2020.
And since they announced in October that they had an option to acquire land in the Patersons Range region of Western Australia it has seriously been on an upward trajectory and are now trading in the region of 17 pence.

So why is there this huge difference between the companies?

@liquid1.

Thanks for the clarification.

That explains a lot.

Much appreciated. (but gosh, what a shame)

@111baker.

Thanks for the heads up.

https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/rcr/announcements/

I do just not understand how they can get to those numbers.

There must be a mistake somewhere.

But if there isn't, Hell yeah baby, Rincon will have to be trading at above $4 a share.

Currently it states Mkt at over 200 million at a price of 87ct, but that is impossible with less then 52 million shares in the company.

However at a price over $4 it would be possible.

Question is just will that be possible to achieve on the first day of trading.

And if it is, what affect will we see here at Gunsynd?

Somehow it just seems to good to be true. There must be a mistake somewhere. (but by God, do I hope there is not)

Guess we will get the answer in a few hours.

Dear TakingMyTime.

Apologies, for first stumbling upon this tread of yours tonight.

I have a lot to thank you (and others) for.

Let’s take the obvious on this BB first.

Your well written posts never fail. They are always worth a read, whether I agree with them or not.

But my biggest thank you, goes to you and your wife.

This thread of yours, really hit home in so many way’s.

There is of course the sad nature of the post itself, but it goes deeper then that for me.

Being one half of an interracial couple myself, and almost loosing my better half, to sepsis this time of year, a few years ago, it really brought tears to my eyes.

I said earlier that my biggest thank goes to you and your wife, and it is for the simple reason that the 2 of you have been making it easier for me and my spouse to walk down the street without being harassed.
So thanks for the spearheading.

Your wife sounded like a wonderful human being (although Marxist, is a bit to left for me:-)

I truly am sorry for your loss.

@Slipperyslip.

I hope you're right.

And in my view, we should be trading at a higher price.

Especially after yesterday, when it was confirmed we maintain 16% of Rincon.
It is a bit of a riddle to me, why people did not jump all onboard, and inflict a crazy rise that would only go crazier Monday if Rincon rises significantly, as we all hope it will.

But maybe that is exactly it. Hope.
If it is hope that has driven the share price to it's current high level, maybe investors now want certainty.

But if it is certainty, they are after, will a doubling or tripling of Rincon's share price, be what will propel us to the stars?

Or will it take something completely different, like some outstanding drill results?

And even if we get outstanding drill results, like 6 month's from now, will that be the propellant?
It wasn't for Greatland Gold.

Or will we first see the rise we all dream of when, Rincon either decides to sell South Telfer, do a JV or decides to mine it them selves?

It is going to be interesting to see what the future brings.

And on Monday we get one answer closer to the question.

Happy day's await, either in the near, or the distant future.
But the happy day's, they do await.
That much is for sure.

@Billthebank

“buy on rumours and sell on fact share”

Although that happened last year, I hope and believe that it will be different this time around.

Towards the end of May 2019, you could buy Gunsynd around 0.023.
1 to 2 weeks later, in the beginning of June 2019 it was trading at 0.051.
The above info is based on the graph here on LSE, however I seem to recall you could trade at even higher prices, but could be wrong.

It was all based on expectation around Oyster Oil, who was once considered to be the company maker.

In the day’s up to the confirmation of Oyster Oil transferring their assets to us (partially), the share price more then doubled.
After the confirmation that it was actually going to happen (no longer just hoping) the share price started falling.

So the question is could the same happen again with regard to Rincon Resources?

YES, it could.

But it does not have too. Things are different this time around. Rincon are IPO’ing on Monday.

With Oyster, we got our fair share of the assets, but there was and apparently still is a lot of work to be done. (am I the only one who was disappointed by the one line and a bit, that was only spent on informing us about the progress in this weeks Quarterly Investors Update, regarding Oyster)

So the question is how will the AIM market react on Monday?

Will investors be taking profits, with the potential result that Gunsynd’s share price tank?

Or will it continue to rise, if Rincon Resources share price goes up?

I used to think it would be our final confirmed percentage of Rincon that would be our catalyst.
And yesterday it was known, we will have 16%, but the price did not jump like mad, up on those good news.

At this stage I really do not now what it will take for Gunsynd’s price to rise up further.

How much will we rise if Rincon doubles or triples?

Your guess is as good as mine.

But here is to hoping.

@tb1416

Thanks for your post.

I made me have an extra look at Ramblers webpage, but I cannot find any additional mines mentioned.
Only other properties I find are the Goodyear's Cove Port Site and Nugget Pond Mill.

Can you kindly direct me where to find information on any other mines in Ramblers possession and if they are in production or expected production start date?

I am sad to see Mr. Heddle go.

It was a shock to see the RNS titled: “Appointment of CEO” and an even bigger shock to read it.

But I was also glad to read that it is Shaun Day that has been chosen as his replacement.

In this link you can read about the astronomical rise a developer can achieve when going from purely being an explorer to become a miner as well.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/this-is-how-3m-market-cap-minnow-ramelius-became-an-850m-gold-miner/

Northern Star is mentioned in the first couple of lines.

This process of finding a new CEO, has been ongoing for several months, so there is good reason to assume Mr. Day new about the Juri-JV deal and the huge percentage that was given away, way before the rest of us.

This to me, cements that it has to have been a strategical move, to give such a huge percent away.

Because with his expertise and skill set, owning Paterson Range East and Black Hills 100% - 75% or 50% would be so much more richly rewarded just a few years from now.

I hope Mr. Heddle left on his own accord and wish him all the best in his future endeavours.
And I for one, cannot wait to see where he goes next.

Here is my list of hopes, all the right ones and in the right order.

1. Rincon Resources.
2. Province Resources.
3. Wishbone.
4. ECR Minerals.
5. Solgold.

I cast my vote for Firetower and Warrentina in Tasmania.

Top temperature in their 20’s, so you are likely to be able to work all year round.

A very different climate to the Paterson region with temperature’s in their 40’s.

Gold is near surface.

I assume infrastructure is way more accessible in Tasmania then in the Paterson region.

So should be able to keep cost’s down.

Question is, should Greatland Gold sell a few million shares (10-50 million) after we get the MRE and the share price are likely to have made a jump? To fund the development of an open pit mine at Firetower and a beginner plant?

Or should they rather wait, a few years until we get an income from Havieron.

I am partial to a small dilution now, so we can get a cash flow going ASAP.

We might need the cash faster then you think.

With all the smart people calculating on various building projects around the world, and constantly getting it wrong. (Crossrail in London, for instance), it is highly likely that the 50 million we have borrowed will not be enough.

Having an income from an operating mine at that time, could be a game changer for Greatland Gold.

Becoming a miner has not been ruled out by default.

This is where the real profit is and since the BOD are always looking to maximize share holders value, then there is a really good change that they might make this jump.

Other explorers who have done so successfully have jumped in one case 40.000%

Admitted, we wont make such a jump from our current price tag.

This article is most definitely worth a read.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/this-is-how-3m-market-cap-minnow-ramelius-became-an-850m-gold-miner/

But why is the share price still so low?

We know for sure Gunsynd will sit on at least 8% of the shares in Rincon.

And I assume we’re all expecting the % to be higher, then that after the listing, but less then the original stake of around 27%

I must say, I am baffled. Don’t get me wrong, the closer to 1 penny, I can buy the shares the happier I am.
To a certain degree.
Because eventually, I would like to see an upward movement?

And why is that event not present right now? Why can this share not attract more attention at this stage?

What will it take to get it going for real?

We know that there is gold on Rincon’s tenements, due to already existing drilling's that have been undertaken in the past. And that some of it is close to surface.
And they have more then 500 square Km of land that they can survey. With newer or better methods then what was possible, just 1 or 2 decades ago.

Even if we were to only maintain an 8% interest in Rincon (and we wont) people should still be going all crazy over the prospects.

So what is holding them back?

Is it the fact that Rincon is still unlisted. Are people going, yes it is near and close, but not listed yet.
Are they really waiting to show an interest in Gunsynd until then?
Where have the punter mentality gone?

Or is it something more deep rooted. Like what is the exit strategy. Who are they going to sell the tenement to?
Will the likes of Newmont, BHP, or Barrick be interested in investing heavily in the infrastructure to get a mine up and running around the Hasties project?

Or is the only really viable contender Newcrest, who already have the infrastructure in place?

But will they be interested at all now?

If Rincon are going to spend a couple of years proving up Hasties, then it will be around the time when Newcrest are ready to start mining at Havieron.
Are they willing to buy Hasties at a decent price or at all, considering they got 70% of Havieron for 65 million?

And last but not least, they were given 75% of Black Hills and Paterson Range East for a maximum spend of just 20 million earlier this week.

Would they really pay a decent sum for Rincon’s assets? With so much on the plate?

And even if they were given 75% freely, is there any change they would start mining it straight away, so share holders in Rincon could start to see a dividend flow?

Are those the thoughts that are holding people back?

Will Rincon be able to mine the tenement themselves, if they cannot get a decent offer for the asset?

Or are there not enough people who knows about Rincon and Angold?

And the possibilities awaiting us?

I guess we will first know better after the 10th.

@ Sungam and @Dhanteras
part 2

Third dream scenario, would have been to negotiate from a position of strength and get a much better JV deal with Newcrest or whoever was giving the the best offer for the various tenements.

Fourth and last on the list, Actually it’s not on the list. Sell one asset at the time for multi many millions.

Giving 75% of potential targets away, and not receive a single penny to give to the share holders, did not exist as an option for me at all.
(the 20 million cannot be given as a dividend or used to pay towards our cost’s at Havieron, they are purely for exploration at PRE and BH)

And yet, giving 75% away could be a good move. If it protects us from a low ball takeover offer.

If this is the best way, for the BOD to make sure we get to trade in 3 pounds +, in the future and dividends can be paid to my family for decades to come.

@ Sungam and @Dhanteras
Part 1

Imagine that yesterday’s RNS had looked very different.

That it had said something along the lines of Newcrest would be able to obtain 1% of Pre and BH licenses for every 1 million spent on exploring the licenses over the next 5 years.
And that it would top at 25 or 50% of those licenses.

Ending in either a 50/50 or 75/25 split to us.

The share price have gone up significantly on the basis of us retaining only 25%.

The above scenario might have given an even higher rise. Then again it might not.

Impossible to say at this stage. The deal is done.

But why did we not get the above scenario?

Could the BOD not dream up a scenario like that. Is it something that goes beyond their wildest dreams.

I don’t think so.
The deal they got at Havieron, shows that they dare put up demands and can get away with it.
They achieved way better terms then anything Antipa got from Newcrest, in my view.

Surely we could wait a few more years, I mean we have assets we have been holding on to for the last 14 or so years, and been exploring for about the same amount of time, so holding onto PRE and BH for another 3 years and do nothing should not be a problem.
I’d say the BOD have a track record to show it can be done.

So the BOD could have chosen to take their time with our other assets and just concentrate on Havieron and get that one right.

And funding our share of the cost’s would not have to be a major problem. Not with our current share price.
I am not sure we would have been able to borrow money on favorable terms, yet.
But a dilution between 6-10% (2-300 million shares) would have given us enough money, to meet our obligations. And fund further exploration.

And then when we can negotiate from a position of strength, look into the other assets.
And make better deals. Keep a higher percentage.

So why not do that? Why this need for speed? Why accept these terms.

Is it a threat from Newcrest to bring a low ball offer on the table, that many share holders would accept without hesitation?
And against the BOD’s recommendation.

It is a possibility, but I’d like to think better of our JV partner.

Some kind of threat is the only thing that can explain this need for speed and giving away such a huge percentage.

To protect ourselves, from a low ball offer.

But am I happy with seeing that level of percentage go?

Hell NO.

My dream scenario would still have been to evolve into a miner ourselves so we could realize the full and true value of our assets, that I so highly believe in.

Next best thing, would have been a merger with Newcrest. And the more millions of oz we would be able to bring to the table, the better a deal we would have been able to get.
(But how good a deal can we get now, when we have just given 75% of PRE and BH away for nothing. (Okay, so maybe, technically next to nothing))

@Gogol

Problem is that now, we can only boost the value with 25% of it’s actual worth. (and that will remain unknown for many many years)

And not 50 -75 or dare I say 100%

20 million will only prove some of the full potential. And that remains the case, whether it is us or Newcrest that are paying.

From a logical point of view, it would have been better to find the 20 million ourselves. Keep the 100% ownership. Strike gold and negotiate from that position.

GGP proved they could do it at Havieron, so I have all the faith in the world that they could replicate it in PRE and BH.

Paying ourselves would most definitely have been a gamble worth taking.

But when you’re 5 holes in, like with Havieron, there might be several potential parties showing an interest, if you get good results.

And if there are several potential bidders, some might be inclined to a hostile take over attempt.

And the BOD, is obviously of the opinion that giving 75% away to Newcrest is the best option.

Not selling it, but giving it.

Maybe exactly for the reason you mention about the balance sheet.

How could Newcrest defend to pay for instance 50 million for a stake in PRE and BH with the lack of information available at the moment.
Their BOD would risk their reputation with shareholders and Institutional Investors.

If there was reason to fear, an imminent attempt from another bidder on unfavourable terms, then this move had to come now.