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I have the feeling News is out somewhere, sudden jump and larger spread. I think no the bad stuff is out the brakes are finally off
https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-shire-bleeding-out-1511196006
Today’s Roche warning label news was the best realistic outcome Shire could have hoped for, approval was widely anticipated and therefore the consistent falls in the shire price look to well overdone in my opinion. Obviously the proof is in the pudding, so let’s see just how many patients will want to swap their treatments to one that can potentially lead to blood clots and worse. I think the Roche share price tiny move up shows you the market dissapointment. I expect some further upward movement for Shire in the coming weeks as it’s all digested. Another clearing event for Shire and we now await phase 3 haven results for this drug in non inhibitor patients as well as News on a new Finance Director for Shire and submission for BLA license for Lanadelumab before year end.
Maybe today will be the turning point, plenty of buying, maybe somebody has heard a whisper that good news imminent. The City often gets wind well before the PI’s get to find out.
http://m.nasdaq.com/article/dan-loeb-soars-high-in-alibaba-cm875874
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4096803-roche-hemophilia-x-factor especially encouraged by below to potential threat. Coming down Excitement over emicizumab is not what it was - the EvaluatePharma sellside consensus forecast for 2022 has halved since last September, and now stands at around $1bn. Most if not all of this figure is likely accounted for by the inhibitor population - Morgan Stanley analysts' current prediction only includes these patients, while success in the non-inhibitor population would add another CHF2bn ($2.1bn) to their estimate. "I think adverse events have a way of muting peoples' enthusiasm," says Dr. Young by way of explanation for the fall in expectations. However, he believes that there is an "enthusiasm gap" between physicians who have used emicizumab and those who have not.
I think weighing up the current price it is this low due to some unknowns, namely. 1. Is the Baxalta merger really going to be value adding for amount paid (still to be proved long term) 2. What effect will potential Roche drug approval and launch have on that aspect of Shire business. (IF approved what will be the profit impact and can shire mitigate with other strong launches and current drugs xiidra, lanadelumab etc)? 3. Is the debt coming down quickly enough and are repayments easily met by future sales? 4. Leaving Financd director, will New appointment be a respected industry figure? 5. ADHD spin off, if it happens will we get a decent price? Lots of unknowns and as these become clearer the price will react, at the moment there are quite a few key hurdles holding this share in a range. Haven 3 data from Roche trial without inhibitors due out this month, is one of the first crunch days. Personally I think even if Roche drug had positive data shire won’t lose as much share of market as people think, however the market usually over reacts so bad data could see a huge mark up and vice versa. It’s a risky time to be holding, with so many questions about to be answered in next few months, but share price does look like a lot of bad news factored in. All my opinion and dyor.
Yet again the trend continues. I’m totally in the dark as to reasons with this trading at what would appear gift prices. Does the market know something?
Yet again on opening Nasdaq starts to drive price downwards. I wonder if there are forces at work to keep this share at Year lows prior to bid received? Maybe wishful thinking but looking very suspicious
Starting to become suspicious of the constant downward pressure when we open stateside. The consistent spiralling of price once they open is becoming the normal. Very frustrating.
Yet another $1b of debt paid off and balance sheet looking better every quarter, but shares languishing at year lows, how very strange. Great results especially as issues with supply, stonking buy for me, I’ve topped up following fridays opportunity and will now be patient for momentum to inevitably build.
I get the feeling the current share price is all about debt levels and furnishing debt payments, and the concern (real or assumed) that potential erosion of Baxalta franchise by Roche via ACE910 and others. Important we see good figures tomorrow, no shocking headlines and that Shire lump another £1B off debt pile. I personally think these are a tremendous opportunity it’s not like Shire are a one trick pony they have many irons in the fire all with big potential, I am hoping we see continued upward figures for Gattex and Natpara as these are both good growth drivers, as well as the rising xiidra.
Stormed through £40, very positive signs and sentiment returning...about time too, the numbers just didn't stack up.
More positive signs this morning. Hoping we can breach the psychological £40 Barrier this week. Confidence and sentiment appear to be coming back after some scare stories were regularly pumped out by media sources.
Nice move up today, positive start stateside seems to be pushing momentum