Member Info for Smokinjoe03

Still racing ahead in America up over 4% now, when news today was poor, makes no sense. My guess is they have found a buyer for the ADHD franchise, just my take on it.

This rise can’t be based on RNS news today, one was poor the other no more than ok, ordinarily this would have lost ground today. So possibly either shorts closing (it’s been kept down for so long now) or nods and winks in the market place is what I’m thinking.

Heavy buying today, if I didn’t know better I’d say the markets are aware of something we don’t yet know!!

Yes very strange trading atm, bad news earlier with trial fail but bouncing back up. I wonder if good news is imminent

Potentially a big week awaits, possible news on ADHD franchise after a surge in the price at the end of last week, especially encouraged by strong finish stateside. Good luck to all those long, hoping any news is well received by markets.

Maybe I spoke too soon, our American friends are doing a sterling job of marching us back down again, it’s an incredibly consistent pattern. News on neuroscience division required by Flemming and co to finally put this market to rest and get us moving upwards again.also awaiting the BLA on lanadelumab potential blockbuster drug.

Not looking likely now I hope, powered through £36. News on ADHD spinoff already on the wind I wonder!

It feels as though the market is putting the pressure on Shire to deliver news on shareholder value via the ADHD review, until then WE will keep the lid on this Share price.

Societe Generale from GBX 7,500 ($99.99) to GBX 8,000 ($106.65) in a research report issued on Wednesday. Like to believe it, but massively unrealistic at this juncture.

As they say buy on the rumour sell on the news, well this is reverse for shorters I would guess, they were shorting but now the Roche news is out, the worst appears known, therefore time to buy. Let’s face it this was hammered down so hard, and there is no way that Shire is disappearing from the haematology market, although sure to take a hit, it’s a rapidly growing market and they virtually discounted the whole franchise is what analysts have said. I expect this to start recovering over coming weeks and months. Dyor

That’s a lot of shares, maybe someone trying to build a stake in anticipation of bid, would be nice

I have the feeling News is out somewhere, sudden jump and larger spread. I think no the bad stuff is out the brakes are finally off

https://www.barrons.com/articles/is-shire-bleeding-out-1511196006

Today’s Roche warning label news was the best realistic outcome Shire could have hoped for, approval was widely anticipated and therefore the consistent falls in the shire price look to well overdone in my opinion. Obviously the proof is in the pudding, so let’s see just how many patients will want to swap their treatments to one that can potentially lead to blood clots and worse. I think the Roche share price tiny move up shows you the market dissapointment. I expect some further upward movement for Shire in the coming weeks as it’s all digested. Another clearing event for Shire and we now await phase 3 haven results for this drug in non inhibitor patients as well as News on a new Finance Director for Shire and submission for BLA license for Lanadelumab before year end.

Maybe today will be the turning point, plenty of buying, maybe somebody has heard a whisper that good news imminent. The City often gets wind well before the PI’s get to find out.

http://m.nasdaq.com/article/dan-loeb-soars-high-in-alibaba-cm875874

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4096803-roche-hemophilia-x-factor especially encouraged by below to potential threat. Coming down Excitement over emicizumab is not what it was - the EvaluatePharma sellside consensus forecast for 2022 has halved since last September, and now stands at around $1bn. Most if not all of this figure is likely accounted for by the inhibitor population - Morgan Stanley analysts' current prediction only includes these patients, while success in the non-inhibitor population would add another CHF2bn ($2.1bn) to their estimate. "I think adverse events have a way of muting peoples' enthusiasm," says Dr. Young by way of explanation for the fall in expectations. However, he believes that there is an "enthusiasm gap" between physicians who have used emicizumab and those who have not.

I think weighing up the current price it is this low due to some unknowns, namely. 1. Is the Baxalta merger really going to be value adding for amount paid (still to be proved long term) 2. What effect will potential Roche drug approval and launch have on that aspect of Shire business. (IF approved what will be the profit impact and can shire mitigate with other strong launches and current drugs xiidra, lanadelumab etc)? 3. Is the debt coming down quickly enough and are repayments easily met by future sales? 4. Leaving Financd director, will New appointment be a respected industry figure? 5. ADHD spin off, if it happens will we get a decent price? Lots of unknowns and as these become clearer the price will react, at the moment there are quite a few key hurdles holding this share in a range. Haven 3 data from Roche trial without inhibitors due out this month, is one of the first crunch days. Personally I think even if Roche drug had positive data shire won’t lose as much share of market as people think, however the market usually over reacts so bad data could see a huge mark up and vice versa. It’s a risky time to be holding, with so many questions about to be answered in next few months, but share price does look like a lot of bad news factored in. All my opinion and dyor.

Yet again the trend continues. I’m totally in the dark as to reasons with this trading at what would appear gift prices. Does the market know something?

Yet again on opening Nasdaq starts to drive price downwards. I wonder if there are forces at work to keep this share at Year lows prior to bid received? Maybe wishful thinking but looking very suspicious