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Hi Arma, unfortunately your calculations are wrong. The actual percentage is (6750000 / 3408207658) x 100 = 0.198%.
Been in BPC for over 8 years now and will definitely wait that bit longer to see if we can finally hit the black stuff but after this long wait will be glad to get out tbh whatever the result.
Hi, been in BPC for over 8 years (in fact it was the first share I ever bought) and like many here have been waiting for the drill for what seems like forever.
Over that time I have learnt some hard lessons on other shares and have much less trust than I used to in Aim company Directors in general. Despite extenuating circumstances over the years I think Simon & co have still been far from perfect, with very poor communication in particular. I can't help thinking therefore that at least some of the reasoning for the proposed merger is self preservation on their part. I am generally inclined to agree with the likes of Jim and Harry in failing to understand how this helps BPC as everything depends on drilling P1 and as shareholders we would benefit more on a successful strike without the dilution of CERP shareholders. I do think there may be a rabbit to come out of the hat to come though which actually might reduce what would have been the dilution to drill anyway but fear if this is the case that we will not know until after the merger vote.
Despite my misgivings though I do now think it is what it is. If the merger is voted down then I have real doubts as to whether the company will actually survive and whether the funding to drill was actually achievable those few short months ago. Being pragmatic, I also think as previously stated that everything depends on a successful P1 drill, and prior to the merger a successful outcome could have resulted in a share price of perhaps 15p to 30p (numbers plucked out of the air but my own targets). After the merger, with a 25% dilution, and with my logic, the same successful outcome should result in a share price of somewhere between 12p to 24p. This still would be around a 4 to 8 bagger versus the current price.
All things considered then I think, with some misgivings, I will vote Yes to the merger and will not sell any of my holding in the hope of still achieving substantial returns despite the extra dilution.
Not experienced enough to make educated estimates as to what share price is likely to do on over subscribed MF, EA approval, possible farm-in and commencement of drilling but my research suggests that oil in the ground is generally valued at around 5 dollars per barrel.
Based on a stated target find of at least 0.77 billion barrels and using a rough exchange rate of say £4 = 5 dollars this would give us value in the ground if successful of £3.08 billion. Allowing for approximately two billion shares in issue currently this would equate to about £1.50 per share.
I realise there is the potential for further dilution to come and a discovery may not be as great as hoped for (if at all) but surely the fabled 87p per share is not out of the question if a reasonable find is achieved?
Any counter arguments to my figures will of course be welcome.
Hi all. Rarely post but have been in here for 8 years now. I've just topped up with another 151k odd shares at 3.5pence but is showing as a sell. Here's hoping for some good news in the next few days and weeks. ATB.
I make that just over 3% of the 555 million shares in issue so should get a TR1 notification shortly.
Based on the first drill finding 15mmbls and us having 8% we should be currently valued at 1.2mmbls. My understanding is that oil in the ground is usually valued at around 5 dollars per barrel = 6 million dollars which at current exchange rate is £4.5 million. If you divide this out by what will be 600 million shares the current share price should be 0.75pence per share.
If the second drill confirms the other 23mmbls then our overall share would be around 3mmbls and should therefore value us at 1.875p per share. If, as expected, we then sold our stake I believe around 15 dollars per barrel would be expected giving a share price of around 5.6p.
All of this assumes no other assets such as Badger of course and given we appear to be currently valued at only around 66% of our true worth it would take the share price to around 1.25p on successful drill and 3.75p on sale of our stake. This of course still equates to a 2.5 bagger or 7.5 bagger respectively.
I am very much an amateur at this game so would appreciate if somebody can check my workings and let me know if I have miscalculated.
The 15.6 million were issued to Shore Capital in conjunction with them arranging the placing in June 2017. They were exercisable at the placing price of 1 pence for a period of two years. The fact that they have exercised after only one year could mean they know news is coming but why wouldn't they wait for the actual news or, more likely, they are just realising profit. Either way the "dilution" was already known about and amounts to only about 1% anyway. Ultimately it is another �156k in to the company coffers as well. Coming news may or may not be good but don't think today's news has any bearing on that and we shouldn't be worried about it. With regard to the EA approval, I still think the 30 day period for comments was working days so personally not expecting anything until mid June at the earliest. Suspect we might get more news bites in the budget though which will prepare the public of the Bahamas for the likelihood of drilling in the near term. If so, this will hopefully support the share price perhaps above the 3 pence mark again?
Not 100% certain but seem to remember that BG have 30 working days to request further information and if so this would take the deadline to about the 8th June (or possibly the 12th June to allow for bank holidays?) so don't necessarily hang your hat on some sort of statement by the end of May. Been here too many years myself and even with averaging down still need about 6 pence to break even but for the first time in ages I actually feel confident that we might all make some profit. Fingers crossed and good luck to all but particularly the long suffering long term holders.
Not sure if my maths is right but the potential 20 bagger that you propose would only take the share price to 0.48 of one pence not the 4.8 pence that you state??
Thanks again both for your courteous response and the level of detail you provide. I am sure this information will be of great interest to those of us on this board without your level of expertise. Do you actually work in the industry?
Thanks Diamond for your reply and detailed explanation which I for one found very helpful. Based on your reasoning and the fact that approximately two thirds of these extra patients are in Saudi and the more developed European countries I would be a little more optimistic that they can double the revenue in the next couple of years or so. I have these shares as part of a diversification of my portfolio and would admit that I have fairly limited knowledge of the sector and timescales involved. Do you have any ideas yourself therefore as to what the milestone events such as the interim and final results for AP101 are likely to have on our market cap assuming they are successful?
The four recent distribution agreements signed estimate a total of nearly 300 new patients that may now be prescribed Lojuxta. Am I right in saying that the revenue per patient is around �200k?? If so then this equates to potential extra revenue of around �60 million. Don't know what the profit margin is likely to be but surely makes our market cap look good value without adding any value for our other assets?
Hi, Ive been in here since approximately 1.4p days and always had my exit point set at around 10p so obviously sitting on a very healthy profit. However as a fairly novice investor of only a few years experience I have had my fingers burnt in several other shares and with hindsight the common theme with those companies is poor management, under funding and over promising. What i see with Asiamet is the exact opposite and consequently i now feel as if i want to hold for the long term. Can somebody point me in the right direction though please to research what our likely outlays are going to be to get a mine in to production and how is this normally done eg. dilution, partnership or loan debt. I have a market cap in mind for when BKM gets in to production which is multiples of where we are at the moment but if actually getting in to production dilutes the hell out of us then share price gain may not be so great? Any thoughts, comments or advice would be much appreciated.