Member Info for smithy2014

There has been a lot of noise about whether we will, or will not, receive further RNS communication from SM, or if we will in fact just hear once the Bonds are sold. To this end, and in a bid to hopefully help settle some nerves of people getting twitchy, I thought I would try and tie down SM Investor Relations in regard to this. My communication with them follows and I believe it makes it clear that they are not obliged to announce a relaunch of the bond sale, although they can if they wish, which is what Auberry was saying yesterday I believe. My personal opinion is that they line up all the sales and then ‘launch’ via RNS, before promptly issuing another RNS to say that all bonds have been sold. Whether those bonds will be as is, or now include warrant sweeteners, who knows but we will find out when they want to tell us. That could well be towards the end of the month, which will still be within current time scale guidelines.

Dear Investors Relations,

Further to your RNS on the 6th August:

Will you will legally have to issue a new RNS to inform investors that you will be revisiting the market to sell the Bonds?

Or

Is the need to raise a new RNS negated by the content of the 6th August RNS, stating that you plan to revisit the market this quarter, therefore only requiring an RNS when the sale of the Bonds is completed?

———————————-

Hello ________

Either option outlined remains available to us.

An announcement will be released to the market as soon as we have an update on our stage 2 financing.

Jenny

I think you could be very warm with that speculation Aubery and I would also think that Hassad Food, which is an investment arm of the Qatar Investment Authority could be involved. Hassad Food is focussed on making investments that help Qatar reducing its dependency on other countries to supply its food needs, and it has a strong business history with India as well, which could be relevant. Food independence has become an even bigger priority for Qatar since Saudi, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE created the ‘blockade’ of air space two years ago.

I strongly suspect that no JV will be very forthcoming at the moment. In business terms in the Middle East, bugger all happens during Ramadan and Eid and the with June, July and August being the hottest months there, most locals disappear for a months holiday during this period. Normal business in terms of major decision making generally resumes after the 2nd Eid break finishes in August. Things take a lot longer in the Middle East so whilst it would be very nice to buck the trend out there, I wouldn’t hold your breath for anything for a while yet.

I see where you got that from now John - it’s Sirius Real Estate reporting today ;)

Unless I’m mistaken John , the next non RNS issued news we are due will be the Q2 Update, which should be expected around the end of June or more likely, the first week in July approximately. It will be a very interesting one and hopefully the focus on this BB should hopefully shift from current short term SP focus and move to construction progress, which is the important thing for me (other than the bonds getting away ASAP of course in the coming months :)

I didn’t know who they were to be honest but that’s a positive and very sizeable investment. For anyone else interested this is what Uncle Google cane up with - Norges Bank / Noregs Bank is the central bank of Norway. Apart from having traditional central bank responsibilities such as financial stability and price stability, it manages The Government Pension Fund of Norway, a stabilization fund that may be the world's largest sovereign wealth fund

I would certainly hope so. The II’s certainly have more sticky fingers than retail investors that’s for sure and they invest without emotion.

I have got to the point now where I have accepted where we are and digested the information (I believe), and am now back focussing on key timelines for potential future SP movement based on facts and my personal assumptions.

Everyone will have differing opinions on future SP movement and I’m not looking to debate that but I would welcome any other key timeline events between now and end of September that I’ve missed or have misunderstood below, as I’ll find that really helpful and maybe others may too if they are looking for some structure in their thinking during these turbulent times :)

Key Activity:

1. 21st May - Announcement regarding Open Offer result (PI) & then GM to sign off all resolutions related to funding. This is fairly minor in risk terms as it’s a given really but is still a positive step forward in terms of risk mitigation once complete.

2. 23rd May - 1.96b shares from Placing & Open Offer Admitted to market @ 15p (90% II & 10% PI). My assumption here is that the 90% of shares going to II’s will be held until at least Oct because they take a longer term view than retail investors and it is September when we should be significantly derisked, assuming successful Initial Bond take up. I don’t for one minute believe JPM would have risked their reputation on anything other than very strong certainty they’ll get this away successfully.

3. 23rd May - Convertible Bonds settled & new bonds issued. The Bid & Ask range is likely to hover around current levels and possibly wider (15-18p) until 23rd May, and probably into early June where major volatility will settle down.

4. 1st/2nd week July (approx) - Quarterly Update. As long as this is positive and there’s certainly a lot of very positive progress to announce potentially, then SP range should be 18-22p.

5. By 19th Sept - Initial Bonds finalised (this is the major de risking event) and the catalyst for a major re rate and I’d expect to be in the 25-30p+ range.

6. By end of September - Initial Bonds expected to be issued and RCF facility becomes available, although is not expected to be drawn down until much later, and in tranches.

We all know this share is very sentiment driven and inevitably there will be revised broker targets issued towards the back end of May when key finance actions have been ratified at the GM, and I’m hoping for excitement building again as we near completion of the Initial Bond confirmation and issuance in Sept.

Come on Aubery, you can do better than that, trying to sow little seeds of doubt with any newbies. For someone who knows the exact number of placing shares, I’m sure you also know the exact date they hit the market and if you don’t, please try actually reading the RNS.

https://www.businessupnorth.co.uk/animmersion-to-bring-sirius-minerals-multi-billion-pound-fertiliser-project-to-life/

Well he certainly has a big fat chunk of shares and as you said, that is a big vote of confidence.

It wasn’t steve Myers who invested an extra £11+m, it was the II’s as part of the placement was it not?

I’m sure you’re right about China Bakky. I spent 10 years in the Middle East and I totally understand painful business set up processes in less westernised business markets but there’s a number of options they will be appraising; acquisition, JV/partnerships, new entity and others..... I’m not aware of the finite details of the previous business he was with but headline information is positive in my opinion and he held a CEO position for a long time, which wouldn’t happen if he wasn’t delivering value. For me, the important thing is his appetite for growth and aggressive growth at that. His successes to date with YGEN are tangible so I’m more positive than I have been since I first invested here 5 years ago.

He has done it before with his previous business Bakky, so why would we doubt he can do it again. He set up a Wholly Owned Financial Entity there and delivered significant growth through it.

Nothing we don’t already know but good PR nonetheless. I do like the ‘International Diagnostics Group’ angle they are pushing now. https://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northwest/molecular-diagnostics-group-buys-counterpart-after-placing-success

I totally agree with you there Florida, there does seem to be a bit of an obsession on this board and the other main one, with TW and what he thinks. Yawn!!!! His commentary can be interesting sometimes but he is not the messiah of the share world as far as I’m aware and his track record on Yourgene is terrible. The fundamentals are strong and the SP will re rate accordingly in due course. I would be amazed if we are not north of 15p in a few months time. In the meantime, the buying opportunity at this current price is attractive. I hope to be able to invest some further funds in a month or so when I can release some other investments.

That is certainly a decent amount of skin in the game Flipper. All bodes well for the future I feel.

I thought I could a sniff an acquisition on the horizon, Lyn doing what he does best, and a positive move in my opinion.

I totally agree Twix and so am I but I’m only trading a percentage of my overall position so I’m happy with that risk. Sod’s law, we get a few new contract announcements next week now :) I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s another acquisition moving forward later this year or next because Lyn has made no secret of appraising those on an ongoing basis and he was involved with 8 previously in his last organisation. He didn’t join YGEN to just get taken over and we are in a land grab situation when it comes to China and the USA, so will be interesting to see how that pans out.

I would love the roaring 20’s or even the roaring 30’s back but not until May/June time please :)

Lol, it does make me laugh when I read about TW and his ethical considerations. Frankly speaking Bakky, the market response to our announcement has been totally underwhelming, although I think we are in a great place now after many painful years. No doubt we will re rate accordingly when everyone starts to appreciate what a bargain YGEN is in a few months time. Personally, I sold the trading part of my YGEN holding today and banked the profit because there are better opportunities elsewhere for the next month or two. I had to do it at a lower price than the advertised bid because of volume and lack of appetite, which is telling in terms of the share price and liquidity. The long winded point I am making badly, is that I noticed my sales today dropped the price significantly and it won’t take much to set it off in the other direction when the market wakes up and appetite for the share increases.