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WS approved which demonstrates that they're not at odds with the regulatory bodies and things get done, eventually !Still spudding this quarter so let's get on with it and see if the camel died from oil poisoning ;) The ducks are there and lined up with shallow sale completion next. Then we have -;- Licence approvals on 3 blocks, 2 that are production licences which will add value to exit should they decide to do so. It will give the green light to drilling on BNG/NY and enable testing on the Akkaduk well on B8 block. The ME investor will probably invest into BNG and we'll understand the plans come licence approvals.- New block acquisition At 2.7p, it is a joke but the sp is controlled by the PI community as they are the only ones trading it. It now needs new investment from new buyers and that will come as soon as the positive updates transpire . Some positive PR from our Clive would be sensible when they have enough to shout about.

Good post Joe. It’s moving at glacial pace but hopefully we see completion this month.

Peeps can trade this for small margins and sell pre news and make a few quid during the quiet periods waiting for news. You could’ve purchased stock at 2.75 a couple of weeks ago and made 8pts so not to be sniffed at if trading volume. Obviously you take the risk of positive news hitting and this is what we need at this juncture 👍

Apols, looking at market, I’d say it was definitely a sell

It’s not my buy although I have been nibbling. I maybe bring presumptuous as the bid/ask prices were so tight and I wasn’t around at the close up test pricing. The price moved up soon after 4pm and the 1.2m trades were ar 4.27 do they could be a sell or buy but I’d have thought that price would’ve retraced. We’ll know early doors as to bid strength or we may see news .

Rosie, definitely a buy 😀

Nice to see some blue on the scoresheet. If the AR deal concludes this month, the sp will go north but it’s critical that we understand their plans for the cash. I’m all for acquiring producing fields with reserves at the right price but that’s yet to be seen. They’ve stated that they’ll be doing buybacks or maybe special Divis, I’m up for both options although many will want the latter.

Then there’s the next chunk of cash that could come from the ME investment. Some may say that $72.5m for 50% of BNG is robbery, I am one of those but if they can develop NY & Airshagyl to a producing field then obviously the asset value is going to increase especially with production licences.

There was another option to raise cash ie sell the CE but I suspect that they’ve tried and no takers. I’m 100% for selling the barge and use that cash v diluting asset worth by involving other investment at this juncture.

We need to see the licence approvals, a successful first well at WS and the B8 approval together with a successful Akkaduk test. Add in 803 continued testing to confirm the new zone is commercial, then this will absolutely fly. Many will say they’ve heard it before but providing we receive the asset approvals, we’re funded to exploit them.

Would be good to get a new broker update following the AR deal completion.

Got to be in it to win it.

They always issue news when I’m on a plane ! First G&T ordered. Got to get those priorities sorted 😀

That’s a great idea. Holidays, cars, planes, food, booze. Maybe our Casper will one day fund some of things we like to enjoy and most of us are still alive to enjoy it 😉

A Smarty thread. That made me larf 😂

……lol . Winter sun, yep you are correct but not going til Wednesday and good ole Canaries over the Caribbean:)

As Un has said, boredom has set in as there’s not much to say currently. Posted the below on ADVFN today -;

As per Clive’s statement, he will be updating on several matters not just the AR deal. We’re all in the dark and next update could be good, bad or indifferent. I’d have thought that the AR deal would’ve closed by now, especially as our Clive stated it was imminent. We have 3 options, dead, delay or renegotiate. If it doesn’t complete by this Friday which is very likely, all investors need to have total transparency as to why.

Block 8 news ? is that progress on the 2 old wells or licence or acquisition process ?

Other licence upgrade position ?

CE charter opportunity

Mining acquisition ?

Licence approvals are key as without them, all BNG deep wells are in stall mode. We can take a positive from the fact that they have always received approvals and the latest approval on WS acquisition demonstrates that they get done but at a snails pace.

HNY to all 😀

Yep, I'm 100% for raising the tax free thresholds, especially after submitting the tax return plus the monies on account for 24/25 !!

Currently the m/cap is c £68m and the question ‘what are our assets worth ?’

Hopefully all investors have read the latest Zeus broker report. 10.9p fair current value and 73.6p with upside. No value attributed to B8 or West Shalva yet we are priced in the doldrums at 3p. The current FV estimate is a 260% hike from current sp but nobody is buying it. They have found oil at all deep structures but are yet to flow them commercially. 803 at NY is the latest to flow at 500bopd with further testing due on receipt of licence approval and if commercial, will immediately improve the NAV. It would be a massive boost for investor confidence as suddenly the monkey has lost its foothold. A5 side-track, B8 testing next and there would be considerable hype/expectation that other drilled structures are going to prove commercial.

The company have completed reserves estimates for Airshagyl but not for NY structure but have applied for production licences. The reserves estimate was a requirement for NY block but it hasn’t be published ? The production licences will incur a cost so are they playing a game with the Kaz authorities hence the stalling of testing at 803 ? They have the extended appraisal licence agreed for up to 12 months so why not crack on ?

They have been clever with their approach to licence applications as it enables them to sell them individually if required. They've stated that structures with production licences are like RH droppings so there should be considerable value when sold, that value will be dictated following the testing on NY block and remedial work on Airshagyl but I believe that both assets will be sold in the not to distant future.

B8 Akkaduk structure to be tested as soon as licence approved and if successful, they'll keep that asset and hopefully WS structure proves to be successful this quarter.

If they generate cash chunks from asset sales, they'll pay special Divis as they've already set up the tax structures to benefit from large windfall payments.

As stated, how can the company be valued at 3p when they have so many assets that if sold separately will generate multiples of current sp. The PIs dictate the price and currently, many are jaded and fed up with the current situation but it will take very little to break this out with gusto. Good news will strengthen the NAV and bring in new investors looking for the next good thing and it could be Caspian.

I remain hopeful of achieving that multi-bagging return, hopefully 2025 is finally the year we start to see the successes we've waited a long time for. 🤞👍

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57764601.amp

Bob,

Unfortunately 4/12 was some time ago and continued inflationary pressure , geopolitical climate and zero UK growth or even recessionary, will all play their part. No crystal ball but I believe we’d be lucky to to see a couple of 0.25 cuts at best.

Good post Bob and pretty much sums up my current view on Vistry. They had to dump the Xmas Eve bombshell as they need to start 25 as positively as possible.

As you say, this could be really good value at this level providing they haven't been cooking the books and we'll soon see the true picture on 15/1 and am looking forward to listening to the analyst call. If it's more bad news, we take our medicine but if it's a positive TU and outlook, this will fly as shorts will unwind their positions.

In the meantime, volatility will continue until then.

Simply Wall St …lol

This will trade north from here into early Jan and will be interesting to see if it retains gains from recent 530 bottom following GF’s Christmas Eve bombshell. If the big boys buy in volume pre 15/1 update, that would be a huge positive. I believe that all the bad news gets dumped into 2024 to facilitate a strong start for 2025.

Somm,

Much that I agree with the anti Starmer sentiment, there’s no chance that any petition will change anything. The numbers were tiny and if you look at the demographics, most of the votes came from Tory held seats but I’m sure there were a fair % of Labour or Reform voters who joined the party.

Sadly our Starmer clan is in for a while but who knows, his ‘change’ agenda and economic growth are sadly lacking and if that continues then maybe a vote of no confidence down the line. He’ll want to give the vote to the 16 year olds which I’m 100% against but he’ll try anything to cling on to power. They’re great at spending other peoples money on initiatives that won’t help GB or was that his Britain. The UK population didn’t really want Labour, they just didn’t want the Tories who were a disgrace leading up to the election, the party infighting was a joke. Just give our Starner enough rope, it won’t take long !!

I don’t know but it’s a question to ask. I’m not expecting it to be a large amount .

BNG prod licences will have a cost, not covered by existing $32m

Somm,

They won't have spent a $ of the $14m and it should be in Escrow . I asked the question at AGM and was in the bank earning interest.

Re CE cash, that was expected on completion of charter so that should be in the bank.

Their still receiving the monthly oil production from the shallows until deal completes and payment if $54m received.

They're operational costs would've dropped through the floor as operational work has largely stopped until licence approvals. Yes, they'll be continuing up transport c70%of the oil from the shallow fields but I suspect that the workforce numbers have reduced considerably and most are contractors.

BNG licences in Q1, agreed.

They are soon to be very cash rich but I don't see them paying one off Divis or doing b/backs until they've drilled WS and completed testing and remedial work on the deeps. They'll also have costs for the upgrade of equipment and infrastructure at the Manganese mining project.

Lots of assets that need commercialising. Q1 should be very interesting.

If they complete the shallows sale then it will be very interesting to see if this then pushes on as investors look forward to Q1 which could herald some very material news. Our Clive has used the word ‘imminently’ with regards to deal completion so it’ll probably close pre year end deadline. That’s $72m after the deduction of the $16m licence dues plus the chunk $6 or 7m from CE charter, that’s a chunk of cash. Then we look at the asset values individually and we’re price at 3.4p. The penny will start to drop over the coming days and weeks 👍