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BM,
It’s not BednIsa action as I’d say most investors have used their 2023/4 allowances but as you say, new pot come Monday and double whammy if your partner invested too. Volume is low but some of the selling could be to book a loss this tax year maybe and reinvest next week into the ISA.
Yep Mike. It’s not our oil until licence renewed and maybe the deal will change if BNG shallows sold. Hoping that we don’t wait the 18 months a la SY shallow licence.
If they sell BNG shallows, they have to have a replacement. The deal needs to be $125m minimum or we see dilution especially if they spend cash on Divis.
Big news we need is from the deeps and hopefully not too long to complete A5 side-track as that’s our company maker. 803 is early Q3 and B8 who knows. CE progress will be most welcome and eyes are on the barge and its movements as only 3 months before kick off .
Makes absolutely no sense to flog it for the numbers they were talking about unless the Abay charter is not 100% . If that goes ahead then that’s $10m+ in the coffers and you would like to think that there’s a good chance of repeat business especially as they’ve seen more interest allegedly . If they sell it for $50m or half of it for $25m, so be it but is that likely ?
Somm, B8 production cessation, where did you see that ? I’d assumed it has to have stopped as they are in the licence renewal phase and unable to sell production until awarded ?
Brent over $90 and Caspian will be thinking of switching yo export but if they’re likely to sell MJF then where’s the oil coming from, hopefully B8 or they know that another deep(s) will flow in the near term.
Current market is in limbo, which way next ? Ask still double the bid and will be interesting to see if we continue our little run or see a mini breakdown going into the weekend. Answers on a postcard :)
There are many holders holding more than 3m and it’s the PIs that are trading this stock and they dictate the price. Todays action shows 2.4m sells v 1.15m buys looking at the prices and we should be red today so must be a buy in the background or the price is going come off a little.
Every day that passes we get closer to next news :)
I think punters/investors are reluctant to jump onboard after a 70% rise and no guaranteed material news in the very short term. The most material imminent news could come from B8 licence approval/testing, CE update or the BNG shallows sale although I think that’s probably further down the road should it happen.
Regardless, 4p is still cheap as chips if taking a longer term view especially as we’re going to see developments on A5/803 and results this quarter maybe on A5 and 803 Q3. The BNG shallows deal could come anytime.
Looking forward to seeing some really positive news this qtr.
CC,
That’s a dopey post as if the 2 x 500k were rollovers, the other 2 buys and 1.25m a sell then that would means 2.4m sells ?? If that was the case then this would have flown today. There are to 127k trades which are rollovers or BNIsa. Also a 324k trade that could be either but even if it was a sell, then the buy sells would total 4.8 v 2.7m and we wouldn’t be at 3.95p.
BM,
Could be either but I think probably a sell as it tilts the sell volume to 4.4m v 3.1m buys as opposed to the other way and we’d have seen the sp in blue not red.
A 70% move was always going to see selling but held up nicely today with those willing to pay 4p. Next stop ? if we knew that we’d all be good at this game !
We’re at a crossroads re sp trend from here. Mr 500k sold into the rise this am and we can guess the pumper or sorry, should I say Tommy Trader. Strangely all quiet today…lol
MMS are matching trades currently after the worked sell of 2m @ 4p. They’re also making a killing for any orders of size ie 3.82 - 4.17 !! 1.3m each side which is the most liquid for some time.
Enough from me, hopefully the buyers win out today and there’s a little further to go before a retrace to support levels :)
The deep discoveries started in 2014 with A5, followed by 801 on NY block, then A6 appraisal on Airshagyl and 802 on NY. A P&A at A8 and now drilling 803, A7 to complete and remedial work on the drilled wells to commence with A5 now. To add, they’ve completed 2 deeps on 2 new structures which are due to be tested post licence approval.
I’ve plucked out a few random RNSs below that highlight the fact that every drill bar 1 has discovered oil. The Airshagyl block is the most lucrative by far but you can see from the 802 discovery that they have no real handle on reserves as they’ve interacted oil at 3900m not at the 4200m they were targeting.
They’ve been plagued by constant issues, largely down to the heat and pressure operating at 3 miles down which have resulted in blockages but the oil is there, whether they can commercialise it is yet to be seen. They’ve spent inordinate sums to date, well over $100m and no ROI yet but theyve almost completed the expensive deep drilling does with 803 being the last well pre applying for the final production licence.
I’m most excited by A5 and one of the announcements below relates to the side-track success, flowing at 3800 bopd for 15 days. Shows what’s possible if they can sort the blockage problem. If they do, the hype on this stock will go crazy as will the sp with so many other completed wells that could flow too. This is why we’re invested :)
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x4v380x
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/xe2o0nx
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/xevd2yw
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/x85g2px
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/r77ygzr
Morning Mike,
I just wouldn’t trust them to manage the cash effectively, if it was cash and no asset acquisition and production replacement. We’re really out of control at that juncture and much that they come to shareholders as regulatory procedure, there’s nothing we can do to vote it down as they have the control. Also the WCP haven’t had a return here and they’ve stayed in play do I suspect they’d be interested in a few pennies but not if it dilutes the operation, that’s crazy !
The fact that they announced the intention to sell means that it’s probably not too far away but yet again, they’ve got previous for announcing and not following through !
The CE cash is going to inject $10m + so if that happens we have the cash for recapitalisation but sake proceeds spent on NAV improvement please, whatever that looks like .
If the shallows are sold then great PROVIDING deal value is equal to or in excess of NAV. Then there’s the utilisation of sale proceeds and one thing we don’t want to see is cash extraction by way of divi. Possibly great for short termers but certainly not for LTHs as it’ll be dilutive . The company has said that proceeds will be utilised for the funding of new development assets and that’s what I want to see, certainly not a dividend unless the deal is over NAV. Currently we have an asset delivering $26m a year inc oil trading and much that the vokumes fluctuate, it’s a dependable asset that we can attribute value to whereas cash can be extracted and value diluted.
As posted, I sincerely hope that if there is a sale then the ‘developing new assets’ is B8 and we can immediately increase reserves if 2 new wells are producers. Then could come the challenge of transportation if we’re fortunate enough to see higher flow rates from B8, so infrastructure costs would be a next so they need to conserve cash. Even more relevant if we’re fortunate enough to see our first Airshagyl/NY deep success.
CC also mentions the international oil market and the likelihood of reverting back to export so where’s that 70k+ coming from ?
Feet firmly on the ground but quietly optimistic of making a good return this year :)
Blimey. I pop out for a couple of beers with the boys and it’s postmania ….lol
I’ve been having a bit of nostalgia time looking back to 2014 and the initial A5 result and was going to summarise out last 10 years ! but looks like CC has been left to his own devices today….lol keep up the good work ;)