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Somm,
I don’t believe we get anywhere near $200m for the shallows but happy to be proved wrong. Applying for a production licence on the deeps when there’s nothing flowing as far as we know. A5 flaring ? if that we’ll actually flows then it’s a game changer but I have not read that a side-track is underway ?
I do believe they generate cash over the next few months from CE and some drilling success at 155, B8 loan repayments and maybe production? Share buy backs are certainly a possibility as are the acquisitio. Of new assets but hopefully not all from the Oraziman portfolio !
It was good to see extension of options and new award for Shin. Strike price too low but will be good to see them exercise the option.
If they don’t succeed at the BNG deeps, the whole acreage could be sold or maybe partnered with somebody who has the skills. Post salt drilling is obviously not easy and if there’s continued failure, sell it all to someone who can or get someone in who can and share the spoils.
Been here too long and the next 3 months is hopefully going to tell me all I need to know, hopefully it’s the right news .
Contd
If they do generate cash then it gives them the opportunity to grant a special divi or who knows, they may go into share buy back mode.
Next few months will be defining for Caspian. We're getting to the conclusion stage on many assets and plenty of news in the coming days, weeks and months. Time to start generating cash to reduce those liabilities and if they do sell BNG shallows or even the deeps, what do they do with the cash ? I suspect that they buy more assets, easier targets (allegedly) like WS where hopefully their skills snd capabilities are a match for the asset to be drilled.
SP @ 3.4p ? regardless of success, the sp will run again as peeps talk it up as news nears. Hopefully this time the hype will be met with positive news that finally strengthens the foundations. If they do deliver success, you can expect to see ridiculous hype here, long overdue for those invested for years :)
Back from a nice little break in CA. Can't believe how expensive it is now !! Need our Casper to start delivering the 'shareholder value' they've been promising for 18 years!
As has been stated MANY times, there's a lot on the go that could finally improve the NAV considerably and create that shareholder value that is long overdue.
23 Financials will be out in June and we're going to see profitability BUT liabilities increasing due to increasing loans. Now is the time to turn that tide and reverse the dilutive process by generating cash. The next few months should see inflows from various sources.
Firstly the B8 contract. The licence approval could be imminent and if so, we can expect to see loan repaid and the first revenues from existing production, to be followed by the testing on the 2 new deeps and hopefully some success at long last.
Next to the CE. A couple of links below show that Abay well is going to happen and hopefully that means the CE is still the preferred drilling solution. If so there's $10m+ coming our way and probably more as the drilling time allocated is probably too optimistic so I'd be expecting more than the 10m profit.
https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fqazmonitor.com%2Fnews%2F2916%2Fhow-kazakhstan-revamps-its-subsurface-management-in-2024%3Famp%3D1&data=05%7C02%7C%7C15e84f1eb9ac4fdedf9208dc6d86acfe%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638505672400548442%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=t57PmwrWRXu625JRAQn7%2FV%2FiSnmHt0oFIehSwyeFibg%3D&reserved=0
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/101875/
Both recent publications and stating that Abay exploration still planned. Will success at Abay mean more work for CE or will Casper trade cash for a small % of the bigger projects ?
Next the shallows sale ? They've announced the possible interest in the shallows yet they're completing 803 before applying for a production licence on an acreage ie the BNG deeps that has produced zero to date. Yes, all wells bar A8 have flowed but could any future sale include the deeps ? Either way, there could be a significant injection of cash, my concern would be whether it's more than the NAV. The big question, are Casper capable of delivering deep success ? I'm not convinced and maybe their success will come from buying and flipping assets for a considerable profit ?
Other sources of cash ? increased production of course and who knows, 803, Block 8 or any other deep like A5 would obviously transform the landscape but that's not immediate.
Our new Camel acreage at WS. The oil is allegedly seeping to the surface and it will take little time to drill a well and if successful, cash inflows could happen far sooner than at MJF. Infrastructure far better too and less transportation costs improving profitability.
If they do generate cash then it gives them the opportunity to grant a special divi or
Just finished my brekkie in Vegas and just wondering whether I’m in time warp mode or is the 26th now a Thursday in the UK ? Most odd ? Anybody attending the GM may need a chat with the good Doctor !! Most odd ?
Ah Provence, very nice indeed. On the Cote D’Azur mixing with the rich folk or further inland ? A Bordeaux and Provence road trip planned next year and a visit to the dog poo state of Monaco @ Grand Prix time. Do they ever pick up their deposits !!
Spangle on ADVFN posted some interesting observations and with a read. My current thoughts as posted on ADVFN.
Thanks for your input Spangle, interesting.
I suspect many shareholders are concerned re the latest proposed deal at West Shalva. Is it another 3AB deal wherby we suffered dilution and no ROI ? On the face of it it does look like another sweetheart deal but won't know until it's drilled. I'm not unhappy with their acquisition strategy but am unhappy with the structure of this deal. They could structure it completely differently without any immediate dilution apart from drilling commitments. Our Bolthazan is going to receive 200m shares or should I say the KO clan is and it could be a repeat of 3AB, there are no guarantees. Surely they should be waiting to see the outcomes from BNG shallows sale, CE deal and current drilling ? if positive then the sp will increase and that's the time to do the deal as it would be far less dilutive. The CP/WCP would be winning as the share price could be back to double figures but no, they're doing it now and it's another feed at the trough.
They could've waited as the asset is available so why do it now ? I suspect that the BNG shallows deal is closer than we think, maybe B8 news too and the CE cash deal confirmation. I think they're rushing it through to max out their shareholding pre releasing positive news and to have prospective acreage at WS that COULD replace MJF.
One thing I do know, they're going all in with building their shareholding so surely there has to be good news and an exit at some juncture.
Could be the biggest bargain on AIM or the Casper saga will drag on, which is it ? we'll know very soon imo.
Joe,
Good post.
I don’t believe that they will lose the vote to get this through. Pis only own 15% max and the other 35%, the Al Marris , Benny, DAE Han hold 20% and the other Kazakhs , Sagdievya, Kerimbayev, Ramazanov, Zoldybayev etc all probably amount to 10% and then there’s the odds and sods. This gets voted through.
I’m hoping that this is the last sweetheart deal before they release positive news, their last feed at the trough before selling the shallows and getting CE cash.
Next 3 months are definitely going to be VERY important, good, bad or indifferent.
There’s loads on this quarter and YES, get on with drilling success on all existing operational activity and there’s loads as we know. CE cash should be getting nearer I’d deal concludes. The sp should be rising on anticipation of a hectic q2 so STOP the distractions and get on with the job at hand ie producing oil !!
Roxi sold Galaz for $100m. Much that their share was less for their % ownership, that’s what the sale price was. Was it fair value for the acquirers ? No but it was to Roxi (Caspian).
Bought 3AB with allocation of c 150m shares @ 12p and zero to show for it.
Bought the CE for $24m and another 160m shares @ 12p allocated. The initial build/fit out costs were $200m so we could argue this is a good deal but as yet it’s washed its face with one health and safety assignment.
Block 8 @ $60m could be a great deal but we won’t pay that price if it’s a duffer. We’ve paid the initial $5m to meet drilling commitments and then $5 a barrel on all production to the seller. I’m not unhappy with this as there’s minimal dilution ie the initial commitment.
West Shalva @ $5m ? No further commitment if no oil found but I don’t want them to but this asset at a 5% dilution at 4p. Wait till they get the sp up to double figures by converting existing assets and then buy it with petty cash as opposed to dilution.
I’m not saying it’s not a good deal, I don’t know but one thing for sure, they need to follow proper regulatory process to assess fair value. They need to appoint new NEDs as per their communication.
They don’t need this now. NO MORE SWEETHEART deals. Get on with the job at hand ie VALUE CREATION for long suffering shareholders !!
I will add, that is the view of the many shareholders that I liaise with. I appreciate it may not be the view of all but one thing for sure, they need to recruit NEDs. They’ve stated they would so get on with the process, will it change anything ? who knows.
As posted, I’ve asked shareholders to contact the company to ask for clarification and the recruitment of NEDs. I’ve sent a few notes and the latest to understand how this WS deal can be passed and who decides that this is fair value ? Some of us are really interested in seeing this company deliver !
Clive,
So Gaffney Cline told you it was a realistic price - fair enough, so why not publish their guidance in the Circular? Surely shareholders would like more of an independent validation than "we're telling you"?
Also I don't class the NOMAD as competent to advise on deal values, only the legalese around related party transactions.
As for Shin being an independent director ?? He's the Chief Operating Officer on the Executive Management Committee. How in any way does that even start to be considered as independent?
Shareholders are not happy Clive and the message is loud and clear ie we don't want any more KO family assets until you start making progress on all the other assets. We want to see the value creation from all existing assets, there's no need for more unless of course the existing assets aren't going to deliver. I'm all for cheap assets that will return value but 3AB is proof whereby investors get diluted. We'd be onside if the current assets were delivering and I'd suggest that would be the time to do any future deals !!
You need to get impartial NEDs onboard and promptly !
Cc, sell 7m shares, you’ve lost me there and you’ve never had 7m shares to sell ;) You’re the biggest Tommy Trader on this BB, your prerogative but it is funny when you go off on one when somebody sells a chunk . Each to their own.
Et al,
They have a load of assets that are not delivering a bean outside of the shallows which they’re possibly now selling. I don’t get that when they can build production and benefit from export prices. Maybe the deal size from any sale is far higher than my expectation, if it is, that’s great but I am concerned re where that money is spent. MJF/SY has a value I can see, it underpins the current sp. Cash doesn’t, it can be extracted or invested in other assets as communicated but if its assets like Shalva, that concerns me. Maybe it’s great but not for now, get on with creating value from existing assets. Surely shareholders will be happy to see the focus on closing out A block, NY and Block 8, we don’t need more assets at this juncture and the associated dilution.
As stated many times, the current assets can deliver a multi-bagging performance. 10 years on and not a penny from the deeps and 4 years on the CE. Lets hope that they change those stats over the coming weeks and months :)
Unfortunately or fortunately, not in that club anymore. Back to 7 figures as I didn’t like the MJF disposal proposition or the current W Shalva deal and hence a de-commit from me . Did my 23/24 BednIsas and have 2 more to do this year and there is a silver lining, I can get most of them in at current prices Still have more stock than most but I now want to see Casper do what they say they’re going to do and fed up of the lack of prioritisation and good management.
I stated that I’ll stick around for the conclusion of the deeps but it’ll be 18 years invested come July and that’s a tad longer than I was planning for a healthy ROI !!! Hopefully we see a positive outcome on 803/A5 and B8 this year, if we don’t, I’ll take more off the table and leave some for the FOMO fund. Not averse to adding more again BUT not until I see the foundations strengthened.
It is now time to deliver and no more adding family titbits until they convert some of the existing portfolio. The WS deal could be anything but we don’t need it at this juncture, focus all efforts on the existing assets and then if the cash rolls in, pick the right acquisition assets, preferably not linked to the KO clan !
Allegedly they have interested parties for MJF/SY and the CE charter project planned for early Q3, less than 3 months away. Both of these deals are ‘significant’ events that will create substantial cash inflow so why buy assets now. They’ll argue it’s a deal at these prices (my boy !) but we’ve yet to see a return from B8/CE or 3AB.
No more assets, instead, spend every S on existing wells and either convert or sell them to another party. It’s a classic case of poor priority management. What are the priority tasks ? List them in order, allocate budget and focus on them ONLY. Not to do so is madness and they have to stop this hokey kokey style of management, disorganised at best.
Needs 2 new NEDs and I would urge all investors to make that point to Mr Carver. Pointless binning Clive a la Limerick as then we are really up shoite creek. Whilst I type this note, the Special General Vote by 19/4 has popped into my mailbox and it’s important that you make your opinions known. We need those impartial NEDs and Caspian have to do it as part of regulatory procedure.
Back to priorities , what are they ?
Deeps
Complete 803
Complete A5 sidetrack
Obtain licence and test 2 wells drilled
Maybe finish A7
Obtain production licence
Shallows
Either build production or cell them for £100m+
Barge
Charter or sell
There is enough there to send the sp flying north and every spare $ needs to be spent doing this. Stop the distractions, fulfil these tasks and STOP the smoke and mirrors. Next few months will be defining for this company and all invested !!
Well, it’s certainly not boring as of late with our Casper. I’m not a fan of today’s announcement and can’t see why they’re doing it now by issuing 200m shares and 10% dilution ? Why not wait until CE cash hits or see the conclusion of any BNG shallows deal first and avoid dilution ? Not saying that this may not work out in our favour but I for one have had enough of sweetheart deals but no way to tell here as this is acreage that hasn’t been explored yet. Yes, Shalva has C1 of 5m boe and c 400bopd but West Shalva is another punt, moreover it’s being bought from Bolthazan hence the Waiver meeting. It could be a successful venture but as some have pointed out, it’s an IF not a when. We’ve already purchased 3AB through a dilutive share issue and written that loss down. The CE another deal done through equity dilution although we can argue that the barge is more valuable than the deal done BUT it better start earning its keep otherwise it will be seen as a white elephant.
My question is ‘why do it now ?’ If these are the development assets that BNG shallows cash could be used for then so be it but let’s get the cash in pre any deal, there’s no need to do it now ? We have enough assets and the priority is proving up the deeps. Use the CE cash to assist with funding alongside BNG shallows and avoid dilution. If any deal onBNG shallows is that good then fantastic but wait for that before jumping on new acreage. Must be another B8 or 3AB situation where licences need to be approved and risk of losing licences maybe ?
Let’s get on with the proving up of BNG, drill A5 and 803 and then take stock. The CE cash will hopefully land and then take a view on West Shalva. Currently I won’t be supporting any deal but I don’t believe our vote counts anyway .
Somm, re BNG shallows deal being significant, I sincerely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. If there was a lucrative deal, why not wait til it’s done ?
Un/BM,
Re tax theory and buying back in, that depends on what price shares where sold and whether the seller(s) want to buy back in at a loss. If we take Mr £500k as an example, selling out at 4p, maybe to book profits or who knows , maybe taking a CGT loss ? If he/she/they want to buy back in then they are winning as they can buy in cheaper at current prices. Those looking to book a CGT loss below 4p may not be so inclined to buy back and will probably be hoping for a continued retrace before buying back.
New ISA allowances are now allotted and we’ll probably see some BNIsa action for those with shares in their trading account that want to move them into their ISA but that won’t move the price as the stock is already bought.
Somm,
Re BNG shallows sale value, I think you’re getting carried away with valuations. Current carry value is $53.7m from the last accounts and much that Clive is intimating that offers are significantly higher that this value, I don’t believe that would mean multiples of but very happy to see your $200m but I doubt that’s the number. If they do sell it, I hope they receive a minimum of $125m or c 4.5p share value. If they did sell it for that price and added the CE cash, I still don’t want to see them extracting the cash via divi and want to see them follow through on their communication ie to didn’t it on new assets.
Q2 could see some really material news from A5, maybe B8 and who knows re the BNG shallows. More shallow updates and clarification on CE ue that they are running with the ABAY well this year as planned and the CE is the chosen drill rig. 803 to follow early Q3 and maybe they get that partner to try and sort 802.
Feet firmly planted and hoping that Q2 sees the final conversion of A5 and B8 licence approval with 2 successful well tests :)