Member Info for smalltrader

The bit I like in the article is -

"The Scarlett Johansson-led MCU prequel will end its run with around $185 million domestic. That’s disappointing, but not disastrous considering the likes of Ant-Man ($181 million in 2015), Thor ($181 million in 2011) and Captain America ($176 million in 2011). More problematic is the lost income in the post-theatrical revenue chain due to the Disney+ factor, along with the film’s still uncertain future in China.

I’d still assume a Chinese release after the blackout period, but likely piracy will likely suppress what could have a $125-$155 million gross"

Black Widow numbers match with the releases back in 2011 and 2015.

Even Scott says piracy will suppress lot of money and last night you were mocking about my ifs. Clearly it is a bad move by Disney.

now a days rarely companies are valued based on their fundamentals and it is more about sentiment.
You are here to dampen that sentiment.

Purely based on sentiment around virus, markets crashed on Monday(Freedom day) and bounced back next day when the sentiment changed!

Barclays have come up with the 115p target based on the fundamentals of the business. Jefferies too have said there is 50% upside for the share prices of the cinemas. Everyone knows that you have to divide the mcap by the number of shares to get the price :-)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57948383

Barclays came up with 115p target based on their "equity modelling". Since their price target, outlook for CINE has only improved. Now wonder if Barclays will also be classified as "irrational optimists" ?

Y'day I read article on Bloomberg where they compared the infections in UK vs Indonesia. Both countries had 50k cases but daily deaths in UK was in lower double digits whereas Indonesia is having 1000 daily deaths!

The stark difference is because of vaccines and they are clearly working. Markets got it wrong on Freedom day and damage has been done though bouncing up since then. We still will see virus scaremongering....

Old article Cruis1. It is dated 13th July. Today is 23rd July. See the latest articles on streaming.

Do you think BW would have made only $80M without streaming release? Atleast Industry experts think it will be more. It definitely would have made more and there is no question of if...

"If it wasn’t on Disney, it still wouldn’t of smashed records, as the 60 million it took on Disney was across the world"

There are plethora of articles on how Disney shot itself on foot with BW release on streaming. Industry experts have said that BW could have made much more if it was not released on streaming. Because of streaming many would have held back going to cinemas. Disney said 2M subscribed for the opening weekend. If you take 1M just from US as US makes up the large portion of Disney subscription and with a family of 4 per household if you take them 1Mx4x$10 ticket price so BW could have earned atleast another $40M so total domestic could have been $120M, which is not bad attendance wise?

LHall, you don't need to prove yourself again and again that you have a damaged brain. Everyone can see it. We thought giving your brain rest for few days like this week could have helped but clearly it did not. Try disappearing forever as you are not invested in CINE.

Cruis1, you conveniently forgotten that F9 opening weekend collection ($70M) is more than Fast&Furious Hobbs and Shaw released in 2019, pre pandemic opening collection was $60M, which is less than F9 released in pandemic!

BW could have smashed pre-pandemic records had Disney not released on streaming.

It is the number of movies that are not there compared to 2019. If you have similar number of movies released as in 2019 then the box office revenue would be similar to 2019 levels. It is not the attendance the reason for the lower box office revenues.

perhaps you are the one in the dreamworld thinking cinema attendance is not back to pre covid level?

Just today morning I mentioned about the box office numbers yet you want to ignore it and come up with a rubbish headline.

learn to do some analysis on the box office numbers before posting rubbish.
Repeating again for your sake so that you will remember and doesn't come back with such rubbish posts ever again -

Year Cumulative Gross Number of releases
2021 $399,282,324 80
2020 $3,677,627 22
2019 $1,149,119,141 193

So you can see that for half the number of releases compared to 2019, gross amount is almost comparable to 2019.
So just for comparison if you take 90 releases in 2019, which is half the actual number then gross would be $550M and we have $399M for similar number now in June 2021

Let us know why you think that attendance is miles away from pre covid levels? Is it that your local cinema has few people and that made you to conclude that whole of US and UK is like that? Go and see every cinema in every corner of the world and then come back and tell us if the attendance is like in your local cinema.

Thanks Don. Good info.

Like you said, positive sentiment will bring in more investors and make the shorts close. Some on here try to dampen the sentiment and we just need to keep a check on them and get rid of them. Eddie Muddie disappeared but there are still few lurking here....

FI, you agreed other day that demand is back to precovid levels when we did the numbers for box office revenue.
Even HSN(poster here) provided the numbers. It is just the number of movies that are less than 2019.

The finanicials since the last results will be poor relatively when compared to 2019 but what market needs is whether the outlook is improving or not and it surely is.

Just started a new thread to discuss.

Like I said, Interim results are for the period till June 30th. Market already knows that cinemas have not fully opened until June so that info is priced in already.

We also have seen that F9 and BW numbers are good and they matched with some of the movies released in 2013, 2014 and 2016!

Expect Mooky to say demand for movies is more than expected. Read the Mooky's interview on Deadline.

So interims should be upbeat from Mooky.

IMO, shorts are closing but one is closing and the other is opening it. We have atleast 2 funds that are actively shorting - AHL Partners and White box.

When the wider market is doing well, they seem to be closing and when the market is subdue they short.

Interim results are for the period till June 30th. Market already knows that cinemas have not fully opened until June so that info is priced in already.

We also have seen that F9 and BW numbers are good and they matched with some of the movies released in 2013, 2014 and 2016!

Expect Mooky to say demand for movies is more than expected. Read the Mooky's interview on Deadline.

So interims should be upbeat from Mooky.

like many have said in the past, shorts were even higher than now when the SP was £1.90 and £2+

These shorts will help us get back to 90s soon as shorts are squeezed!

Another 15% rise would be nice! Tomorrow would be good. Let's see what happends.

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/national/uk-today/19458412.cineworld-praised-keeping-controversial-rule-lockdown-lifted/

"What brings too to conclude that any increase in inflation Cineworld will directly pass on costs (and more) to customers?
"
FI, inflation means passing on the costs to consumers :-)
Do you think they will suddenly ask unlimited membership members to pay more than already paid :-)
The price rise will be on the concession items and they can also increase the ticket price too.

"Increasing interest rates to counter inflation encourages consumers to save (not spend), which would also not benefit cinemas (or many other businesses)."

Dragon9, as usual you live in your own world. Go back and read my post. Interest rates are not going up this year. Biden himself said last week that inflation is temporary. Enough of your interest rate rise scare.