Member Info for smallfish9

I would argue the path to commercial gas is already clear, perhaps the actual sale of produced gas will be the first big move. To a lesser degree a 10-20mmcf/d will excite some a bit, but it's pretty obvious it's inevitable.

Hardrock_Fracer, your knowledge of Subsurface Dynamics is apparent, they are not US and are based in Calgary. Their client list includes a reputable group of Canadian companies, who are, in many ways leaders in the technical field of well stimulation. Ever had a look at the data that is available in Canada?

Also included is a pretty solid group of Australian Companies.

Times are changing and they're staying the same, living in the past stoking fears that are unjustified and ignoring the real energy needs and sources of the developed (and developing) world.

There isn't anything exotic or complex to the formula IMO. There's a very consistent rock that holds a multiple of gas associated with depth (half the depth, half the gas).

The issue here is execution.

It is worth mentioning that the vertical was slow to cleanup on initial flow, it is reasonable to assume that we've not seen the flown potential of the wells yet.

I wouldn't be too optimistic given the level of local experience executing horizontal wells. One need only to look at the drill times and flow rates to see general incompetence in drilling and completion. The reservoir is stellar, the drilling unimtimidating, yet Santos was slow, lost a third of what they drilled and didn't deliver on the potential the reservoir so obviously holds.

An operational disappointment, but the contingent resource update reaffirms that the rock is as advertised.

LOL,

"Applying a conservative 10% Chance of Success to these gas resources, a value of
approximately $830m can be derived, which would represent a value uplift of $1.20 per
share to our EEG valuation."

This is all you really need to know about Pangaea's/Empire Land. If there is cause to assign 10% success well that's what one should take note of.

https://empireenergygroup.net/wp-content/uploads/2022-01-BOE-EEG-Update.pdf

With Origin/Falcon announcing the new work program I am a bit amazed.

https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FALCON-OIL-GAS-LTD-6498345/news/Falcon-Oil-Gas-Ltd-Planned-Stage-3-Work-Programme-Beetaloo-Sub-Basin-37648984/

I don't understand the motivation for drilling two wells on an existing pad. Options are:
-Spend twice the money to get the same answer twice
-We think this is the only place this will work, stepping away from a well contributes to far too much risk
-we already know something about this location, let's relearn the same thing two more times
-we would like to relearn the factors leading to casing deformation in NW-1H (ie increased risk of loss)
-stepping out would establish too much contingent resource let alone reserves in the longer run let's stay here and keep the asset value to a min (previous 2C est is a farce)
-if we drill two wells the average well cost will be lower
-we'd like to reintersect the faulting that makes steering and fracturing operations difficult. Twice.

The entire operation appears rudderless.

Is there anywhere on the planet further from Europe? I think Beetaloo gas is a sure bet to contribute to Australia's already enormous LNG production, but directly to Europe? I have my doubts.

Good point on the EP76 test, it edges towards what is considered wet gas in North American terms.

The lateral is 1000m long, the gross zone 500m and the upper two shales are about 80m. They're thicker and deeper than the rest of the Basin. With reservoir properties that are generally equal to or better than the best elsewhere in the Basin this is the highest concentration of gas.

With gas at $9 aud it is $54/bbl equiv, with oil at $100 aud a 20% liquid fraction would translate to a 17% increase in revenue. However, this does not account for:
1. The reduction in realized gas price due to reduced heating value due to removal of c2+. Est 10-15%
2. A very costly, and unnecessary deep cut plant to remove c2+.
3. It makes no sense to remove liquids in the field, they go down the pipeline and are transported from this remote location.

In short high gas prices totally negate the value of liquids in this remote area of Australia. Never mind the fact that every gas test has been dry gas.

Thanks, so with 96% being c1 and c2, what is the anticipated liquids yield in bbls/mmcf?

I like this whole play a lot, looks like great reservoir, I just can't figure out why both Empire and Falcon keep talking about being liquids rich when they're barely even finding a propane fraction let alone a liquid.